The Power of Positive Polling

Here's something interesting: A Gallup national tracking poll released today shows that Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton 51-41 — a ten-point, double-digit lead. NBC Political Director Chuck Todd surmises that national polling numbers like those are giving Obama a bit of a bounce in Pennsylvania as voters keep getting the message that he's the front runner.

"I do think that Obama's benefiting a a little bit in some Pennsylvania polling from this idea that he's the front runner, and that can move a couple of points," Todd told Andrea Mitchell. "It's probably he difference between him losing by double digits and single digits in a place like Pennsylvania."

From double digits to single digits, eh? That's interesting — because earlier on MSNBC, I could have sworn I heard a guest say that Clinton had to win Pennsylvania by double-digits to persuasively stay in the race (I went back and looked - sorry, don't recall who it was - but others are saying that too). Todd said he was trying to "wean himself" off the daily national tracking polls because "a couple of them are very erratic sometimes" — but still, these are the polls that show up every day across every platform in the media. (That's been a bee in the HuffPost bonnet in the past.) Be that as it may, if Todd is correct it won't change the fact that such exposure, unrelenting as it is, will have the power to move the needle a few points, which will make the difference between Hillary Clinton looking like an electable challenger or Mike Huckabee. It's sort of interesting to contemplate.

Mitchell and Todd also discuss the flap over free trade with Colombia, and wonder whether both candidates are actually as opposed to it as they'd like Pennsylvania voters to believe. Watch the full clip below.:

Related: Arianna Huffington: Say No To Pollsters! [HuffPost]

Comments

[JamesA1102]

Great column Rachel. The on-air pundits are too obessed with polls which have proven not to be accurate. As the saying goes "the only poll that counts is the one on election day".

[Stillman]

Rachel, we love you. We're just not used to you writing a column that fails to demonstrate media bias.

[poppaculture]

i look forward to a candidate who supports both sides of the issue and pleases everyone (no need for polls to determine the popularity of a position and, therefore, how to pose).

Kerry must not have embraced this concept THOROUGHLY ENOUGH for the Democrats in 2004 to keep the 527's silent and win the presidency.

[anywho]

OK? Is there a point to this piece? I am scratching my head.

[rachaelisacancer]

The point is that perception rules in American politics.

For all the people who are either
a) too lazy to do a little research to make their own determination as to which candidate is best or
b) are too stupid to do so,
hearing a poll that says one candidate is the leader is enough to help them decide to vote for that candidate.

It's kind of like how everyone has an iPod although there are many mp3/audio players that are just as good. They think iPod is the best because that's what the polls are telling them, so that's what they're going to buy. I hope that's a good analogy.

[DasBoot]

"It's sort of interesting to contemplat­e..."

Yes Rachel, I am waiting for you to contemplate.

[williehorton]

Rachel,
We knew you'd be back to shilling for Hillary... on your next day off from the Olive Garden.
The four-top in the corner wants CLEAN silverware, right away...

[Rachel Sklar - Huffpost Blogger]

Willie, the candidates themselves aren't even discussed here - the only thing that's mentioned is that Obama is leading by a ten-point margin nationally, and Pennsylvania voters may find that to be persuasive. I fail to see who that shills for in any respect, but if it's good for anyone it's good for Obama.

[anywho]

Thant you wrote this article and then replied to this comment is curious.
How you got this job is bewildering to many of us.