Clinton's Odds: Time And Delegate Math Not In Her Favor

The calls are growing again for Hillary Clinton to recognize that her mathematical chances for winning the democratic nomination are low to none.

The AP just came out with an article that lays out the case, "Analysis: Time, Delegate Math Working Against Clinton."

Time is running out on Hillary Rodham Clinton, the long-ago front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination who now trails Barack Obama in delegates, states won and popular votes.

Compounding Clinton's woes, Obama appears on track to finish the primary campaign fewer than 100 delegates shy of the 2,025 needed to win.

DNC Chief Howard Dean's statements Thursday that superdelegates need to start making up their minds "now," doesn't bode well for Clinton either. Clinton supporters shot back against Dean today in an interview with TPM's Greg Sargent:

Two of Hillary Clinton's most prominent fundraisers tore into Howard Dean in interviews with me today, sharply criticizing the DNC chair for saying yesterday that super-delegates should say which Dem candidate they support "starting now."

"Governor Dean should do what he has said he will do -- refrain from injecting himself into the primary process, as millions of Democrats have yet to cast their votes," Hillary national finance chair Hassan Nemazee, one of the most influential fundraisers in the Democratic Party, told me today.

"If he wishes to do something productive," Nemazee continued, "he should exhibit the leadership necessary to resolve the Florida and Michigan impasse, which has disenfranchised millions of Democratic voters."

Comments

[HurryUp1212009]

06:02 PM on 04/19/2008

She's SO SICK that she's trying to damage Obama so he'll lose to McCain and she can run again in 2012. However, if Obama loses, the Democratic Party will blame her and her husband for the defeat - rightfully.

[hydethesalami]

02:28 PM on 04/19/2008

"This comment is pending approval and won't be displayed until it is approved." on another thread and no one knows why

UhOh.
Obama's inability to answer questions in a straightforward (i.e. honest) manner appears to have cost him at the moment.
He's no different than Hillary.
Just smoother and easier to take.

"Hillary Clinton now receives 46% of the support of Democrats nationally, compared to 45% for Barack Obama, marking the first time Obama has not led in Gallup's daily tracking since March 18-20."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106606/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-46-Obama-45.aspx

[rwe]

02:12 PM on 04/19/2008

and yet today Gallup says Clinton 46% Obama 45% so lets not Obamagasm the process so fast

[Nyland8]

09:05 PM on 04/19/2008

What has any poll got to do with the facts? The data shows only Obama can take the nomination.

8

[Nyland8]

07:36 AM on 04/19/2008

2)
It has been that very recurring disenfranchisement that has turned this year's primary season into the grotesque burlesque that it has become. Now Rodhamites who don’t even live in FL or MI are screaming that their voters should have some effect on the nomination. Bullshit. If anything, by breaking party rules and demanding to be first, they should have NO say in the selection process. In other words, just as much say as Khalifornia and other States typically had when they played by the rules.

Otherwise the party will be perceived to be favoring its worst outlaws. Can you imagine what the next selection process will look like in four years if they seat anyone from MI/FL ??? States will start holding their primaries a year before, and then demand they not be “disenfranchised” at the convention.

Where is it written that this year’s votes from MI/FL are somehow sacrosanct over and above what’s been happening in our politics for the last 200+ years?

Dean should just tell the Rodhamites in FL/MI to pay attention in four years and make sure they don’t shoot themselves in the foot again.

Nobody should be awarded a Purple Heart for a self-inflicted wound.

8

[Senella]

11:27 AM on 04/19/2008

As a born and raised Floridian,I agree!!!!!

[phansen]

05:29 PM on 04/19/2008

Also, it was Hillary that voted FOR the enforcement of the DNC rules that banned FL and MI... of course, that was back when she thought this would be a piece of cake.... now that she needs those votes, desperately, to even come close to catching up.... all of a sudden NOW she appreciates those two states.

At this point, I'm just curious to see what her spin is when Obama gets the nomination... will she pull a Lieberman, and run as an Independent, split the Dem vote, and guarantee McCain's victory, ala Nader?

I wouldn't put it past her. Maybe she won't bother and she'll just run as McCain's VP, having done so much to help him already.

[Nyland8]

07:35 AM on 04/19/2008

1)
From the article:


"If he wishes to do something productive," Nemazee continued, "he should exhibit the leadership necessary to resolve the Florida and Michigan impasse, which has disenfranchised millions of Democratic voters."




Somebody, anybody, in the media should point out that the entire MI/FL issue is a non-starter. The Rodham campaign will continue to flog this dead horse in an effort to create dissent among Democrats, but the whole notion that it should be up to anyone other than those two states to correct their error is just so much horseshit. 



In my lifetime, there has never been a primary season that didn't involve a great deal of disenfranchisement. THAT’S WHAT THIS ENTIRE CIRCUS HAS BEEN ABOUT!

The Governator of Khalifornia was tired of the fact that the single most populated State in the Union was effectively disenfranchised every four years, because by the time their primary was run, all the candidates had already dropped out with one exception. So the good voters of Khalifornia had an effective choice of voting for someone picked by less populated States, or voting for someone who'd already thrown in the towel. In other words, no choice at all. Total, effective disenfranchisement. The State with 370 delegates got to rubber-stamp the person who had already been picked for them.


Aren’t there States who’d have picked Huckabee and would have liked to have their primaries earlier, keeping the nomination from McCain? What about their effective disfranchisement?

8

[Lisette]

07:28 AM on 04/19/2008

This is nothing new.

We have known for months that Hillary can't win, and in fact has already lost.

But Hillary is so arrogant, she can't accept it.

She has just been wasting everyone's time.

[raywyatt]

01:43 PM on 04/19/2008

Agreed I would only add that she has also been wasting money. In the end she is only soiling what is left of the "Clinton Legacy." The point of a graceful retreat has long since faded. "Graceful" is not part of the Clinton vocabulary.

I once entertained the idea of voting for her if she turned out to be the Democratic nominee. Now I have nothing but disdain for her.

[Thatcher]

02:22 AM on 04/19/2008

Complete rundown of delegate predictions for the next 10 Democratic Primary contests ... Clinton wins more delegates in the 10 - but is it enough?

http://thedeadguy.com/2008/about-the-delegates

[pupbayer]

01:39 AM on 04/19/2008

I don't understand what Obama and his supporters are so afraid of that they can't let the process work. Makes no sense to me but it does make me wonder.

[rationalthought1]

01:48 AM on 04/19/2008

The reality is that with all her advantages and establishment connections Hillary blew this campaign just like she blew healthcare in the 90's. Now we need to convince her not to blow the election for the democrats. And, no, it isn't that she had bad advisors. No more than that Bush took bad advice. The candidate and the president have to have the judgement to make good choices and set the right direction. She is a good and effective senator, and could have a bright future as a leader in the senate.

[UnknownSoldier]

10:13 AM on 04/19/2008

Sen. Leader went out the window after March 4 Primaries, her future in the party went out the window when she slammed MoveOn. She is finished herself with her duplicity.

[WongChin]

01:55 AM on 04/19/2008

Nothing should make you wonder other than shy Hillary Clinton has refused to do what every self-respecting candidate has always done when they are hopelessly behind.

They drop out! But Hillary isn't doing it.

This whole "let the process play out" or "allow people to have their say" isn't washing; it is all boondoggle. Since when have democrats (and Republicans for that matter) gone through so many primaries?

Is it that whenever self-respecting candidates that hopelessly behind throw in the towel, somehow the process is not playing out or people are not having their say? Let's just set this myth aside. It becomes even more imperative to have the hopelessly behind candidate drop out in a situation where she is set to bring the party down with her.

The lamest excuse given for all the unDemocratic, nothing-is-too-low, GOP-like attack is that "If we don't ask those questions now, the Republicans are going to be asking them in the fall." In other words, "Let us out-Republican the Republicans"! In other words still, "Let us create soundbites the Republicans will use against our nominee in the fall" or still "Let us legitimize Republican diversionary, non-issue attacks based on flag pins, guns, whiskey shots, and all kinds of dumbing down.

It sounds all too shamelessly desperate.

[LiarLiarIraqsOnFire]

01:30 AM on 04/19/2008

I'd just like to say to Sen. Clinton, one feminist to another, what part of NO MEANS NO!!! don't you understand? Shut up, go back to Chappaqua, or D.C. or wherever, and let us get on with the work of fixing what you stood by and allowed to be destroyed.

There ain't no such thing as a Goldwater Democrat.

[jwsub28]

01:19 AM on 04/19/2008

Time has come for her to bow out gracefully. Well at this point I don't think it will be grace. The Karl Rove politics have already started attacking Obama. Bunch of idiots, they are very afraid of Obama. They were counting on Clinton, hopefully PA will come through for us. He had a HUGE crowd in PA today, bigger than any other event. That says something to the superdelegates and to America.

The Clinton's will be fine, they have made 109 MILLION DOLLARS since leaving the White House, she tried to paint Obama as an elitist. She even had McCain who is just as wealthy calling him an elitist. The Clinton's and the McCain's are the picture of "out of touch with America". Clinton started this ELITIST name calling and it is coming back to her. People are not stupid, Hillary!

[bubito54]

12:18 AM on 04/19/2008

It's time the superDs tell HRC that even if Obama is caught molesting the Pope, she's not going to be the nominee, because she is unelectable and has rabies. It's time the MSM and BWSKB (Bloggers Who Should Know Better) stop buying the subtexts in statements from the Wolf's Lair that nurture the myth of an "impasse" about Florida and Michigan that needs to be "resolved," or that a "popular vote total" matters or even exists.

[LBKN]

10:27 AM on 04/19/2008

LOLOL...... RABIES..... HA!

[MaracaKabob]

10:49 PM on 04/18/2008

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exsmFDYyK4U&eurl=http
What's with the southern accent?
Is Hillary a big phony accent swinger?

[victoriajubilee]

10:46 PM on 04/18/2008

UPTO 40,000 PEOPLE CROWDED DOWN TOWN PHILLY EARLIER TONIGHT IN A MASS RALLY IN SUPPORT OF SENATOR OBAMA. ALL THE STREETS WERE JAM PACKED. IT WAS THE LARGEST TURNOUT EVER FOR A OBAMA RALLY.

[asere]

11:19 PM on 04/18/2008

HE'S ROCKIN AND ROLLIN !

HILL, GET OUT SO WE CAN START HAVING SOME REAL FUN .

I 'M GOING TO BE ORDERING SOME NEW THREADS FOR THE PARTIES IN JANUARY.

SUGGEST YOU ALL DO THE SAME .


VIVA BARACK !

[pupbayer]

01:42 AM on 04/19/2008

Real fun? He can't take the little heat Hillary has given him and refuses to debate again. He doesn't want Michigan and Florida to count. The Republicans will be so much harder on him. I don't think he can make it through that. (Besides the fact he is not electable. And don't tell me how well he's done in the primaries so far. We're talking general election NOT primaries...WHOLE different race.)

[Lisette]

07:35 AM on 04/19/2008

BARACK and ROLL

[Plank]

10:46 PM on 04/18/2008

The tone the Clintons and their surrogates use to address fellow democrats is disgusting. Hillary praises McCain and rips those democrats who don't agree with her.The days when rich donors can control the party are over.

[asere]

10:01 PM on 04/18/2008

Why are some folks so worried about Mc Bush ?
He's a lousy campaigner, has very little money, is joined at the hip to a guy who's at 28% and has so much stuff in his closet that is really hard to choose where to start hitting him.
I predict that he'll be easier to beat than Dole in '96.
Enough of the ' Mc Bush is going to do this, he's going to do that ' stuff.
He ain't going do S__T. He's wearing a big ' L ' ( for looser) in his forehead.
Barack will play with him like a big, putty cat plays with a silly old mouse.

VIVA BARACK !

[Faye12]

10:28 PM on 04/18/2008

OBAMA FLIPPING HILLARY OFF - SLOW MOTION!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UoOFp-RDpvM

[Gilda]

11:13 PM on 04/18/2008

Thanks Barak. It felt good too, didn't it?
Everytime I see her lying face I do the same thing.

[Thatcher]

03:27 AM on 04/19/2008

He scratched his face three times in 2 minutes ...

Once with a pinky finger near his nose.
Once with a middle finger near his eye.
Once with an index finger on his other cheek.

But it's the middle one you point out ... how convenient.

[illinoisan]

10:42 PM on 04/18/2008

I must agree. When Her Royal Clinton finally is deposed, Obama's numbers vs McBush quickly will rise to those of the "generic Democrat" who consistently trounces McBush. Add to that the war, the economy and history and we get a perfect electoral storm.