Electoral Map Favors Democrats

WASHINGTON — The electoral road to the White House favors Democrats this fall _ either Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton _ and has Republican John McCain playing defense to thwart a presidential power shift.

A downtrodden economy, the war in Iraq and a public call for change have created an Electoral College outlook and a political environment filled with extraordinary opportunity for the Democrats and enormous challenge for the GOP nominee-in-waiting.

Both parties count on victory in dozens of states that long have voted their way. The competition to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win is expected to play out primarily in 14 states. All but one saw the greatest action in 2004. The exception is Virginia, a longtime Republican stronghold where Democrats have made inroads.

Eight of the states went for President Bush four years ago, including the crown jewels Ohio and Florida. Six, including big-prize Pennsylvania, voted for Democrat John Kerry. In the battlegrounds, far more electoral votes, 97, are up for grabs for Democrats than the 69 available for McCain to go after. Twice as many of the closest states _ decided by 2 or fewer percentage points _ voted Republican in 2004; they include New Mexico and Iowa, which the GOP won by 1 point.

Both sides argue that their candidates can expand the playing field by making more states competitive than in previous elections. But they likely will only spend time and money to test that theory once they feel confident about higher priority states.

"This is going to be a tough campaign. I have no illusions how hard we have to work to win," McCain says, a sobering assessment of a Republican's chances when most voters say the country is on the wrong track under a GOP president.

Conversely, Democrats exude confidence that Nov. 4 will break their way _ even as they continue their nomination slugfest.

"I have every reason to believe we're going to have a Democratic president," Clinton argues. Obama declares: "We will beat John McCain in November. You can take that to the bank!"

Recent polls, however, show McCain competing strongly with both Clinton and Obama in hypothetical matchups, and Republicans and Democrats envision a close race.

In 2004, Bush won 286 electoral votes to 251 for Kerry. This year's Democratic nominee must triumph in all the states Kerry won, and pick up 19 more votes to prevail _ or come up with another game plan to reach the magic number. McCain, for his part, must fend off Democratic challenges to hang on to the GOP advantage.

DEMOCRATIC OPPORTUNITIES:

Of the 14 battlegrounds, Bush won eight with 97 electoral votes. Half of those states were decided by only 1 or 2 percentage points, and all were under 10 points. Five have Democratic governors this year. Electoral votes are in parentheses.

Three Western states _ Colorado (9), Nevada (5) and New Mexico (5) _ appear obvious targets for Democrats given their gains in the region, sharp population growth and large numbers of swing-voting Hispanics. But McCain, a four-term senator from Arizona, does well among those voters, too; his Senate support for an eventual path to citizenship for illegal immigrants could help.

To the east, Iowa (7) holds promise for the Democrats; Republicans narrowly put it into their column in 2004 after years of Democratic dominance. Both Obama and Clinton competed here during the primary. McCain's opposition to ethanol subsidies complicate his chances, nor is he a favorite of evangelicals. Though less likely to change hands, Missouri (11) is a perennial battleground.

McCain also must defend the two vote-rich prizes that decided the past two elections.

Ohio (20), a bellwether that tipped the race to Bush in 2004, may be poised for a switch, with a rash of job losses, high numbers of Iraq casualties and a series of Republican statewide political defeats in 2006, including the governor.

Florida (27), which put Bush in the White House in 2000 and voted for him again in 2004, will certainly be hard-fought, given its electoral treasure chest. Its demographics are tilting more Republican, though, and Obama has fared poorly in the primaries among Jewish and Hispanic voters. Clinton may have a better shot.

Virginia (13) is a case where Obama, who is black, might play stronger than Clinton because of the state's large black population. The state moves into the competitive category given Democratic gains fueled by the growing Washington suburbs. Virginia also is home to large communities of military veterans who may have an affinity for McCain, a former Navy pilot who spent more than five years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam.

REPUBLICAN OPPORTUNITIES:

Kerry won six of the hard-fought states offering 69 electoral votes that McCain will try to put in the GOP column. All of those were decided by under 5 percentage points. Most have Democratic governors as well as long histories as swing states.

In the upper Midwest, Minnesota (10) has a quirky independent streak that presents an opening for McCain. It also has a Republican governor and will host the GOP's national convention. Wisconsin (10) and Michigan (17) have high numbers of Reagan Democrats that McCain could attract. But voters in all three states are reeling from economic woes, and that works in the Democrats' favor.

New Hampshire (4) fell to Kerry by a razor-thin margin four years ago and, Democrats captured two House seats two years later. But McCain has a close bond with the state that made him in his first presidential primary in 2000, and saved him this year.

It's been 20 years since Pennsylvania (21) voted Republican. Further complicating McCain's chances: The state's economy is bad and many Pennsylvanians have died in Iraq, the war he staunchly supports. Still, conservative swaths that are home to right-leaning Democrats could give McCain an opening. As usual, the Philadelphia suburbs figure to be pivotal.

Oregon (7) has become more competitive in recent elections, but Democrats have won it in each of the last five. McCain hopes his moderate image and support for curbing climate change will tip the state to Republicans.

WILD-CARDS:

Beyond the core states, several others are worth watching.

If Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, Arkansas (6) will certainly be contested. It has voted Republican in back-to-back elections but her husband, a former governor there, carried it twice. West Virginia (5), too, could be a target given that Bill Clinton won it twice and it's home to a large number of the working-class voters she attracts.

Should Obama be the nominee, Democrats say they hope to put solid Southern GOP states in play, those with large black populations. Among them: North Carolina (15) and Georgia (15), and possibly even Louisiana (9) and Mississippi (6). But these are unlikely targets unless the Democrats think the election is in hand.

Democrats also say they may look at Montana (3), which has a Democratic governor, and Kentucky (8), which twice voted for Bill Clinton. But they're also long-shots.

McCain should hold his home state of Arizona (10) despite Democratic threats to play there. He sees potential opportunities in Democratic-leaning states on both coasts because of his appeal to voters across the political spectrum. These include Washington (11) and Maine (4), and, perhaps, even New Jersey (15) and Delaware (3). McCain also talks big about California (55) but the last Republican to win there was George H.W. Bush in 1988.

___

Liz Sidoti covers the presidential race for The Associated Press.

Comments

[Kishadawn]

I keep reading comments "If HRC wins" the nomination. She won't. It will come to July, she'll lose because of SDs. For a while I was being played into the MSM's tactics and being enraged at the possibility that BO wouldn't. I'm over it.

This is MSM making the race look longer than it really is. Its over. The fact that HRC and BO's campaign keep debating the fact is only demeaning the one another's intelligence.

After reading all of these "polls", "surveys", and "opinions", I won't deny that I'm frustrated by it.

As an Obama supporter I say just let her run her race. If HRC can throw this many kitchen sinks at BO, think about what an asset that can be when we throw them at McCain in August? We may look like a split party until August ,but it doesn't change the fact that Americans are hurting now with Republicans running the White House. No one will forget that in November no matter how nice McCain is to the press.

I've said it once, I'll say it again. .."Obama keep attacking McCain". It all comes down to the fact that BO is running for POTUS, so is HRC. Both HRC and BO's campaign should stop acting like you're running "against" each other. You're NOT. We all want the same thing, a Democratic POTUS. My personal belief is that it will be Obama. The numbers support this hunch...regardless of what the pundits spin ...this week..

[lvogt]

The Republicans have no shame and will say any lie, smear anyone, commit election fraud to keep power. They tend to get away with on the airwaves because the media consistently promotes their propaganda and downplay the Democratic side. There may be liberals IN the media but the media is owned and operated BY conservatives. So Wright is played 1000 times as often as Hagee.

A Democrat doesn't have to make a mistake The GOP will just make something up anyway and the rest of the media will repeat it. Even if they don't believe it they will report that it has been reported and play it over and over. The GOP can say anything and it is barely mentioned. It's a rigged game and everyone knows it. That is why Democrats are often timid in what they do and how they do it. It will not be reported honestly.

[BlueOnBlue]

As Frank Rich pointed out in the NYT, 27% of Pennsylvania Republicans who voted in their own primary Tuesday chose Ron Paul or Mike Huckabee, in effect casting votes against McCain. Another 5-6% either wrote in a candidate or chose no candidate at all.

You can read the electoral college tea leaves all you like, but it is clear a substantial number of Republicans still don't like McCain as their nominee.

[lvogt]

I find it difficult to believe the stridently anti-war Ron Paul supporters will be able to cast their ballot for McCain the pro-war candidate. Not feeling McCain is a compelling choice and being habitually anti-Democrat, some of Huckabee's people may stay home. They may, however, come out to vote against Clinton out of sheer habit.

[VivaZapata]

how could this even BE a close election? americans love to play BEND OVER AND DO ME AGAIN.

[AjicNYC]

this is interesting and all but it leaves out VPs. THEY WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE in this!!!! OUR 3 canditdates cant really stand on their own. VP position will do alot. A McCain/ Bloomberg ticket WOULD TURN NY RED for example

[KQuarksSuperCollider]

For Obama our nominee, Webb or Strickland would be good.

[Joeyjackal]

So much of this analysis is somewhat moot considering that both presidential elections in which Bush won were ultimately illegitimate. Florida in 2000 through a cabal of Jeb Bush, Katherine Harris, Fox and the Supreme Court superceding not only popular but electoral votes. Ohio in 2004 with yet another Secretary of Sate (like Harris before), that is Blackwell, who also happens to have been again a prime mover on the committee to re-elect Bush and Cheney, plus Ohio-headquartered Diebold whose CEO said he'd deliver Ohio's electoral votes to re-elect. For reference, read a book by Greg Palast titled Armed Madhouse regards Ohio. One can still purchase and read it without being tasered.

[AxelDC]

Well, duh! After 8 years of Bush, even Republicans like Tom Davis (VA) are saying that the GOP brand is like a bad dog food and should be removed from the shelves. How does McCain expect to win by embracing Bush, pushing for eternal engagement in Iraq, calling for attacks on Iran, and confessing that he is completely ignorant when it comes to economics? Even in a normal year, that would be a bad campaign strategy, but with Bush at 28%, the Iraq war even lower, and the economy in a recession, Ronald Reagan would lose in a landslide this year.

[gregjones]

That's Scott Rasmussen.....and rember...pollsters are always paid. p.s. Did you know Rasmussen started ESPN then sold it to ABC....

[gregjones]

Any suggestions as to how we can help the 'older' and the 'uneducated' voters (as pollsters call them). Her base could really use some assistance.

[GeoLee]

greg, I normally like your comments, however, assuming people who only have high school educations are uneducated voters is a lot farther than I am willing to go. Perhaps because I know I felt that same arrogant way when I was young radical supporter of JFK when only one other person in my school was, and when I went to many Vietnam protests and throughout the years when I sent many letters of protest to my very republican reps and senators, but over the years, the one thing I have learned is that thee are many people I assumed were "uneducated" often were self educated because they did not have the financial advantages many youth even twenty years later had. I was one of the fortunate ones who got fellowships to get my graduate degrees after working my way though school. To assume they're coming to different opinions than you because they're older or uneducated smacks of an unattractive arrogance that may actually caus others to do what you have. Draw the line in the sand and that can only, in the long run hurt all of our chances of making sure MNcCain is not the next president. Try to remember that many of the older voters either fought in WWII to insure the rights you have, or perhaps lost older brothers or fathers in that effort. All in all, our world is better for them, so they have earned the right to have an opinion, too.

[Kantinflas]

-- Rasmussen currently identifies 13 states as "battlegrounds" which could go either way in the general election: CO, FL, IA, MI, MO, MN, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI. A total of 159 electoral votes.
-- RealClearPolitics (Election 2008 Latest Polls) lists head-to-head matchups, McCain-Clinton and McCain-Obama, for all the battleground states, except NH, going back to March 30. Aggregately, the most recent state polls for each pair of match-ups through April 26 indicate Clinton would beat McCain by 11 electoral votes overall. Obama would lose by 97.

[KQuarksSuperCollider]

Current polls are meaningless.

[gregjones]

Google Rasmussen....I'm thinking about starting a poll company

[Kantinflas]

Rasmussen's not the issue. The legitimacy of his "battleground states" list is. Since it's about the same as the one in the preceeding article, it seems like a reasonble starting point from which to attempt an assessment of electability based on state-by-state poll results from a variety of sources. And, while hardly flawless, such results, with their modicums of objectivity and Electoral College orientation, promise at least as much illumination as the tidal wave of mindless speculation emanating from the news media or the endlessly self-serving claims projectile vomitted by the spinning heads from both the Clinton and Obama camps.

[ThirdSection]

This seems like a sure thing for the Democrats. Yet, if history has proven one thing, it is that the Democratic Party is a world-class champ at blowing sure things.

Hopefully I'm wrong.

[antaeus]

After all the discussion of change this season, OH and FL appear to be just as crucial in 2008 as they were in 2000 and 2004.

Obama wins them?

[KQuarksSuperCollider]

Obama is the only candidate that can win without OH and FL. Either Democrat will win OH in a year where the economy it the issue. FL has gone Republican in 6 out of 7 of the last races and is getting redder.

[obamanation31]

Let's protect the interns in the white house by electing OBAMA!

[Denni]

This is why Clinton refuses to give up even though there's NO CHANCE for her win. She believes that if she can ruin Obama, she will definitely win the Presidential race. She's not looking at the big picture. She's ruined herself, already.

[AjicNYC]

THATS BULL,

[Jason357]

She's made too many nemies by the way she's run this campaign and that's no bull.

[KevinMast]

I wish Hillary would just drop out & be done with it. What is happening demonstrates how polarizing she is. Her staying in the race is not for the good of the country or the Democratic Party. It is an insatiable thirst for power. I hope that she is soon out of the race so that we can move on to the issues at hand & away from the negative attacks. I personally don't have anything against her. I just think that she helps energize the Repbulican base more than the Democratic base. I fear another Republican getting into office at this point. I plan to leave the country if that happens. No good can come of it.

[cmrinc]

I wish Hillary woud drop out too, Obama is not electable