North Carolina Polls: Democratic Primary

May 6: Insider Advantage has Obama leading in its North Carolina poll, but the race is significantly tighter:

Barack Obama: 47%

Hillary Clinton: 43%

May 6: Zogby has Obama with a big lead on the day of voting in the North Carolina primary:

Barack Obama: 51%

Hillary Clinton: 37%

May 4: Public Policy Polling also is favoring Obama immediately before the North Carolina primary (pdf):

Barack Obama: 53%

Hillary Clinton: 43%

May 4: Obama is holding a lead in ARG's final North Carolina poll as well:

Barack Obama: 50%

Hillary Clinton: 42%

May 4: Obama has held his lead in the latest Zogby daily tracking polls of the North Carolina primary:

Barack Obama: 48%

Hillary Clinton: 39%
Undecided: 13%

May 2 Insider Advantage has Obama holding a slim lead in its latest North Carolina poll. From the internals, IA is assuming black voters will represent 25% of the voting electorate:

Barack Obama: 49%

Hillary Clinton: 44%

May 2 American Research Group is also suggesting that Obama is holding his lead in the North Carolina primary:

Barack Obama: 52%

Hillary Clinton: 41%
Undecided: 5%

May 2: Research 2000 has Obama maintaining his lead in the latest North Carolina poll:

Barack Obama: 51%

Hillary Clinton: 44%

May 2: Zogby's daily tracking poll shows Obama with a double-digit lead in the North Carolina primary:

Barack Obama: 50%

Hillary Clinton: 34%

May 1: Mason Dixon has released a North Carolina poll that confirms a tightened race:

Barack Obama: 49%

Hillary Clinton: 42%
Undecided: 9%

May 1: Insider Advantage has released the first North Carolina poll showing Clinton leading Obama:

Hillary Clinton: 44%

Barack Obama: 42%
Undecided: 14%

April 29: A SurveyUSA North Carolina poll shows a considerably closer race than the other polling firms. SurveyUSA also gave a smaller initial lead that anyone else in the race, but the tightening is now showing across the board:

Barack Obama: 49%

Hillary Clinton: 44%

April 29: Another Rasmussen poll shows Clinton gaining ground in North Carolina, but Obama maintains a sizeable lead:

Barack Obama: 51%

Hillary Clinton: 37%

April 28: Clinton is gaining ground in the latest North Carolina poll from Public Policy Polling, though Obama still holds a solid lead (pdf):

Barack Obama: 51%

Hillary Clinton: 39%

April 28: Obama has held his lead in the North Carolina primary, according to the latest ARG poll:

Barack Obama: 52%

Hillary Clinton: 42%
Undecided: 4%

April 23: Obama has held onto his North Carolina lead for the past three months, though those numbers were taken prior to the Pennsylvania primary:

Barack Obama: 50%

Hillary Clinton: 41%
Undecided: 5%

April 21: On the eve of the Pennsylvania primary, Obama has shown his biggest lead thus far in a PPP poll:

Barack Obama: 57%

Hillary Clinton: 32%

April 14: A PPP poll suggests that Obama's "bitter" comments haven't had any effect on his lead thus far:

Barack Obama: 54%

Hillary Clinton: 34%

April 9: A Survey USA poll has Obama maintaining the same 10-point lead he held a month ago:

Barack Obama: 49%

Hillary Clinton: 39%

April 7: A PPP poll (pdf) has Obama maintaining his large lead of Clinton in North Carolina:

Barack Obama: 54%

Hillary Clinton: 33%
Undecided 13%

April 6: A Braun Research poll shows Obama with a big lead, and a huge number of undecideds:

Barack Obama: 35%

Hillary Clinton: 26%
Undecided: 39%

APRIL 5: A Charlotte Observer poll finds a closer race than recent polls, with two of five voters still undecided:

Barack Obama: 35%

Hillary Clinton: 26%

APRIL 5: A Rasmussen poll shows Obama with a huge north Carolina lead:

Barack Obama: 56%

Hillary Clinton: 33%

MARCH 31: A PPP poll (pdf) has Barack Obama with a sizable lead in North Carolina, following a full week with both candidates campaigning in the state:

Obama: 54%

Clinton: 36%

MARCH 27: An Insider Advantage poll shows Barack Obama with a double digit lead, although a large number of voters remain undecided:

Barack Obama: 49%

Hillary Clinton: 34%
Undecided: 17%

Read HuffPost's continuing North Carolina Primary coverage.

Comments

[danyll]

04:28 PM on 05/06/2008

So why are the polls only one or two days apart? Did they ask different questions? Or are people changing their minds day to day? Or are people just messing with you because they are tired of being polled every other day?

[LeftLeaner]

02:16 PM on 05/06/2008

Zogby is no pollster - He's an Obama pundit.

I don't know who he's fooling, he's only making a mockery of hisown reputation by distorting what should be facts.

What I don't get is that if these Obamacrats think so highly of their Hero, why do they have to misrepresent the facts.

It's the guy's job - well maybe not much longer, as no one will take him seriously anymore .

[flyguy14222]

02:25 PM on 05/06/2008

I couldn't agree more. I think Zogby had a lobotomy at Obamadroid HQ!

[LeftLeaner]

02:36 PM on 05/06/2008

I have a GREAT IDEA.

Let's STOP Polling, and let the voters, vote.

What a novel idea, what do you all think?

[ObserverinVancouver]

04:00 PM on 05/06/2008

There are two Zogbys. John Zogby is the pollster. Jim Zogby is a scholar with the Arab-American Institute and he is the supporter of Sen. Obama.

[billaryisswillary]

05:02 PM on 05/06/2008

What proof could you provide? Do you have even ONE statement from Jim Zogby that he supports Obama? P-R-O-O-F would help you NOT appear so friggin' racist!

[AdamND]

02:06 PM on 05/06/2008

I dont know why pundits think that Clintons lead in white blue collars vote automatically makes her more electable.

The problem with the Blue Collar group is that they are never a large and stable group of democratics. I mean they are easily scared to move to the republican party.

So basically HIllary is burning her bridges with the stable and very important bases of the democratic in order to impress the blue collars months before the election.

So if she does court a slightly large portion of that base she will then in turn kill her rep with blacks, young people which would nullify her gains with the blue collars.

[LeftLeaner]

02:24 PM on 05/06/2008

Obama has captured the youth vote as he is nearer to their age and a fresh face.

The overwhelming African American vote is due to identify poiltics.

The blue collar vote is not comfortable with his seemingly haughty and aloof demeanor, but they are comfortable with Clinton and McCain (so far).

She also has the majority of the women's vote and seniors.

I believe she is also favored in the Hispanic community.

No candidate can capture ALL constituencies.

So she needs to focus on those that are standing by her, and keep the momentum going.

If she does that, she will easily beat McCain.

[Sparklez]

02:32 PM on 05/06/2008

Hispanics dont even make up a large number of dems

And he is actually doing better in her groups that she has, still not as up to par with her but better

And she will never get the AA vote he has. She had it at first, then she lost it. He has more of her constituency than she does of his

And blue collar workers dont like him because he is an educated black man whereas in this world, AA's are supposed to be selling drugs and in jail.

[Witchitalineman]

03:28 PM on 05/06/2008

I agree, and she is burning her bridges.

[LeftLeaner]

01:43 PM on 05/06/2008

i thought Pollsters (at least the distinguished ones) left their their partison hats at home.

Why is it that Jim Zogby - a "RABID" Obama supporter - ALWAYS shows Obama leading where other pollsters' stats are more conservative.

Seems to me, Zogby cannot be relied upon, and should be eliminated.

There is NO ROOM for partisonship in this process.

ZOGBY, you're a fraud,

[JadedAggie]

02:14 PM on 05/06/2008

To be honest the Insider Advantage polling has been equally strange so to me there is an absence of an accurate poll. We would need a new PPP, ARG, or Survey USA poll in order to at least get a more trust worthy number.

[LeftLeaner]

02:17 PM on 05/06/2008

We need to do as in the Olympics by throwing out the highest and the lowest scores - Ha Ha Ha.

I say this only somewhat in jest.

[dshall]

02:54 PM on 05/06/2008

I was under the impression Zogby has been the most accurate in previous polling, and has gotten it right in most states.

[DAVESEAN]

01:38 PM on 05/06/2008

The Anti-Obama, Anti-Wright, and Anti-Clinton GOP Model Has Been Tested -- And It Failed
The Republican brand has been so badly damaged that if Republicans try to run an anti-Obama, anti- Reverend Wright, or (if Senator Clinton wins), anti-Clinton campaign, they are simply going to fail.

This model has already been tested with disastrous results.

In 2006, there were six incumbent Republican Senators who had plenty of money, the advantage of incumbency, and traditionally successful consultants.

But the voters in all six states had adopted a simple position: "Not you." No matter what the GOP Senators attacked their opponents with, the voters shrugged off the attacks and returned to, "Not you."

The danger for House and Senate Republicans in 2008 is that the voters will say, "Not the Republicans."

Republicans Have Lost the Advantage on Every Single-Issue Poll
A February Washington Post poll shows that Republicans have lost the advantage to the Democrats on which party can handle an issue better -- on every single topic.

Americans now believe that Democrats can handle the deficit better (52 to 31), taxes better (48 to 40) and even terrorism better (44 to 37).

This is a catastrophic collapse of trust in Republicans built up over three generations on the deficit, two generations on taxes, and two generations on national security

[sdbsingle1]

01:54 PM on 05/06/2008

DAVESEAN I completely agree with you, and I don't know why it took people so long to figure this stuff out, but people are not as smart as they could be.

The GOP is bad for everything and not all of them, but most of them, and Bush has really made many of them angry and wanting to distance themselves from him, and I cannot blame them at all, because it's not cool what he and the Halliburton Adm. have done to essentially bankrupt this Country.

10 YEARS from now, this War would have still been a bad idea, and he will still be known as the WORST PRESIDENT EVER!

The people need to stand and unite behind those who say they are for them, and mean it, and not just pander like we have now from most Politicians!

[sdbsingle1]

01:37 PM on 05/06/2008

These polls are bogus, and as far as the Clinton camp suggesting that they can rally from a 20-point deficit, that's ludicrous, because when Barack did it, he couldn't finish the job, so don't think that this will be anywhere near 3 or 4 pts. tonight, because it's going to be more like 6-9, and if he wins Ind. , then no matter what Fox, or MSNBC says, it's over!

I am going to vote for the Dem. nominee GOD willing, but the Clinton people need to stop making excuses on this stuff, and as far as these polls, when they start inteviewing 50-60 million people and then the numbers say that, then I'll listen, but N.C will be a blowout people and you know it, and Ind. is going to b close, but I guess if it's not a big state, then it doesn't matter to the Clinton camp right?

None of the other states do either, but say she is the nominee, then those other 31-33 states that Barack has and will win, don't need to vote for her, because they're not important right?

Her foot is definitely in her mouth, and in Nov. if she is the nominee, she is screwed because people don't forget and the GOP won't let them either.

[Totto]

01:23 PM on 05/06/2008

Clinton supporters have taken "nasty lessons" from Republicans. Soooo snotty. For her gas tax "holiday" to work, Bush would have to approve. Seems a bit unlikely.

[neocon666]

12:13 PM on 05/06/2008

Try to imagine the cry of fowl from the sleazoid republicans if the democratic party attempted to influence the outcome of a republican primary by running ads against a republican candidate and having democrats vote for the republican they thought they'd have the best chance of beating in a general election.

In any case McHillary still needs to win ALL remaining primaries by at least 70 percent, which isn't going to happen, even if she does win in NC (which is hightly unlikely).

[JoeBobHalley]

11:49 AM on 05/06/2008

DANGER DAY: HILLARY FACES '15-POINT DEFEAT' IN NC; SEES INDIANA WIN
Tue May 06 2008 06:35:49 ET - DRUDGEREPORT.COM

Hillary Clinton's inner circle now fears a stinging defeat is likely in North Carolina.

"Look, we worked hard and gave it our best shot, but the demographics, well, they are what they are," a top campaign source explained to the DRUDGE REPORT as voting began Tuesday morning.

The campaign now believes a 15 point loss, or more, would not be surprising. Her team will work hard throughout the day to lower all expectations in North Carolina.

The campaign hopes media attention will stay fixated on the competition in Indiana, where 72 delegates are on the line, and Clinton internals show a victory!

MORE

North Carolina had been seen by Clinton insiders as the senator's last shot to seriously jolt the system and overshadow the math. With 115 delegates at stake, North Carolina posed an uphill battle for Clinton.

Obama easily carried the region in earlier voting, topping Clinton in Maryland by 23-points; Virginia by 29, South Carolina 28 and Georgia 36.

The campaign hopes to move quickly onto a victory next Tuesday in West Virginia, where only 28 delegates are at stake.

Developing...

[JoeBobHalley]

11:47 AM on 05/06/2008

How about this from Drudge?

>

[Busterdawg]

10:56 AM on 05/05/2008

"Poll: Obama Holding NC Lead"

That HuffPo headline is not a good one for Obama. "Holding" his lead?? 3 weeks ago he led by 20 points, he should be winning NC in a walk. This is not good for him.

[sawdustinhershoes]

07:29 PM on 05/05/2008

All the polls tighten before the vote. The polls are usually correct. Obama will win.

[Myshkin57]

02:11 AM on 05/06/2008

The polls for Hillary in Pennsylvania tightened from 20 to 5 before the primary.

[AshevilleVoice]

07:50 AM on 05/03/2008

Michelle Obama spoke here in Asheville, NC last night. She was very moving. I've never before seen any event bring the diverse people in our little mountain town together with a feeling of such openness and unity.

The fear-infused tactics used by Clinton's campaign will have an effect with some of the very conservative folks who turned against Bush and are seeking change. Hillary has positioned herself as "safer" to them. But Obama has offset her ability to manipulate them by inspiring an unprecedented political interest in young voters and also couples with young children, black and white, who need to hear a promise of hope for their families.

[Auspicious8]

06:58 PM on 05/03/2008

I received a nice email signed by Carolyn Kennedy asking for help to start working this summer on the campaign. Let's all respond to the call for organizing our communities and mobilizing our neighbors to vote for Obama for the fall. Let us turn our eyes toward the big prize and beat MCCAINBUSh in the fall. If you are interested go to Obama's website

http://my.barackobama.com/page/s/fellowsapp

[Auspicious8]

07:35 PM on 05/03/2008

Obama gets more superdelegates. Update from the dailykos

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/3/15329/18032/91/508419

[armadillious2002]

01:10 AM on 05/03/2008

Here's the deal - rightly or wrongly a question mark has been inserted as to Obama's patriotism. His association with reverend Wright, the flag pin, the National Anthem and blah blah blah. He doesn't have to address this but his winning the nomination might very well depend on it. If he wants to win and put his critics to rest he needs to give a speech on his patirotism. Much like he gave at the Democratic Covention a few years back. Yeah it's dumb and he shouldn't have to do it but if he wants to turn the tide then he has to do it. Americans need to know beyond a shadow of a doubt where his allegiance lies after all the negative propaganda. I promise that is all it will take to bury this thing once and for all. Give them what they want to hear.

[olivia]

11:45 AM on 05/06/2008

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

If you really believe Obama is unpatriotic, you're a tool.

[EinChicago]

12:00 PM on 05/06/2008

yeah. because calling teh 90% of the nation not following The Caucus kid blindly names will win them over.

[neocon666]

12:04 PM on 05/06/2008

And anyone with enough willfull ignorance to buy is just looking (past the obvious) for an excuse not to vote for Obama anyway.

[Emper0r]

09:24 PM on 05/02/2008

I think if Obama wins NC by double digits and Hillary only wins Indiana by small single digits she might drop out of the race. She seems to be emphasizing North Carolina a lot lately, as if she knows she's going to lose so she'll have an excuse to drop out because she's out of cash :P

[windwalker1984]

09:34 PM on 05/02/2008

Interesting that Clinton claims to be the most "electable" yet her campaign cannot raise the kind of funds that Obama can - and many of his donations are $10, $20, $40 at a time by over 1 million different people. It appears Hillary's rich "base" of voters have hit the legal limits for donations and Hillary's campaign is now tapped out.

[txgal44]

04:03 PM on 05/06/2008

Obama will run the country like he's run his campaign.

Hillary will run the country like she's run her campaign.

Need I say more?

[LindaLee99]

04:29 PM on 05/06/2008

Her supporters are working class people, earning minimum wage. Not the rich, over-educated liberal elite. Us working class can't give much, need to feed our families and pay for the mortgage; can't give as much money as others.

[pertello]

07:33 PM on 05/02/2008

Dear Barack, Never Give Up On A Dream...

Dear Huff Post Friends,
Please watch my video and let me know what you think.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWv71o3WF1E

[Fasteddie1515]

02:51 PM on 05/03/2008

Hey, that was pretty, I sent it to family members all over the country!

[Sonny James]

10:44 PM on 05/03/2008

Pertello,

Thank You!

"Dear Barack, Never Give Up On A Dream"

It's on its way...all across...USA!