Exit Polls: Limbaugh Effect Seems To Rear Its Head

Did Rush Limbaugh actually impact the Democratic primary?

The loud-mouthed radio talk show host has been encouraging Republicans to vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton to continue the "chaos" in the Democratic race. And a sampling of some key exit poll information suggests he may, to a certain extent, be having an effect.

Thirty-six percent of primary voters said that Clinton does not share their values. And yet, among that total, one out of every five (20 percent) nevertheless voted for her in the Indiana election. Moreover, of the 10 percent of Hoosiers who said "neither candidate" shared their values, 75 percent cast their ballots for Clinton.

These are not small numbers. By comparison, of the 33 percent of voters who said Sen. Barack Obama does not share their values, only seven percent cast their ballots in his favor. Basically, more people who don't relate to Clinton are, for one reason or another, still voting for her. These are not likely to be loyal supporters.

On a broader level, among the 17 percent of primary goers who said they would choose Sen. John McCain over Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical general election match-up, 41 percent of that group came from Clinton's own camp. In essence, roughly seven percent of Clinton support in Indiana (40 percent of 17 percent) said they would defect to the Republican should she end up the nominee. That would be a difficult punch to stomach in November. In 2004, nearly 1 million Indianans voted for John Kerry. A seven percent defection rate would have meant 70,000 less votes.

By contrast, if the general election is between Obama and McCain, 19 percent of the Indiana Democratic primary goers said they would support the Republican. But only 12 percent of that group (2.28 percent) would come from Obama's camp.

The numbers suggest one of three things: A) Clinton's support in Indiana, while clearly there, is not entirely solid; B) a large swath of Indiana primary goers simply didn't like the nominees and thought of Clinton as the lesser of two evils; or C) Limbaugh's hatchet plan could be having political ripples.

Perhaps it's a mix of all three.

Comments

[jgalvan]

08:10 PM on 05/10/2008

Who care what this fat, drugged out guy has too say? His listeners are dirt bags with am radio's wired in their trailer homes. Oh! Snap! Now I see the connection!

[gtalkspolitics]

09:25 AM on 05/10/2008

Help me understand, white Americans will listen to a drug addict and follow his directions White voters obeys??
BUT holds Sen. Obama accountiable for spliced tapes proven taken out of content for the saying of Rev. Wright NOT WORDS OF SEN OBAMA . and to add insult to injury they listen to Sean Hannity a promoter of Hal Turner a Neo NAzi who has called on white americans to bomb and kill African Americans and Jewish Americans this is a ignorant racist double standered, White American wake-up !!!! google Harold Turner and read the long loving relationship he has shared with Sean Hannity at FOX NEWS!!! this Fair and Balance message is a joke!!!!!

[Deaninphilly]

07:21 AM on 05/10/2008

I see you previously worked for the investigative journalism group Center for Public Integrity. Key word being previously. I see why as there is no integrity in this article of so called "news".

It's always nice to read a slanderous article against a candidate when it's really a slow news day for the dimwitted who actually buy into the bull. While reading the comments it becomes crystal clear why the state of affairs of the U.S. are the way they are. It really doesn't take a genius to figure out why we have had 8 years of the Bush Presidency. People please do get yourself at least some semblance of intelligence. Do you really think Rush had an influence on the election or does it just make you feel better to think your candidate didn't win a state not because he just couldn't carry it or because "evil forces" were at play.

Oh, to Huff Post the election is over we can stop with the smear campaign against Sen. Clinton now. It's grown very tiresome. Just remember Sen. Clinton's supporters also come on here as well unless of course you feel you don't need them as readers aka supporters as well.

[apduncan1]

12:32 PM on 05/10/2008

Rush's anal fistula is acting up, go and suck the pus.

[shadow322]

01:03 AM on 05/10/2008

Rush: "I did not take illegal drugs."
What Rush could not say : "I did not illegally take drugs."

[realtalk]

10:17 PM on 05/09/2008

I HAVE TO STRONGLY CAUTION ALL OBAMA SUPPORTERS WHOSE STATES HAVE NOT YET VOTED, PLEASE GET OUT AND VOTE WHEN YOUR VOTING DATE ARRIVES. THE RACE IS NOT OVER, SO DO NOT BUY INTO WHAT THE MEDIA IS SAYING. THEY ARE GIVING OFF A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY.

IF THE MEDIA ARE ABLE TO GET OBAMA'S VOTERS TO STAY AT HOME, WITH THE FALSE SENSE THAT OBAMA HAS ALREADY WON, HILLARY WILL WALK OFF WITH THE NOMINATION, BECAUSE YOU BETTER BELIEVE THAT HILLARY IS TELLING HER SUPPORTERS TO GO OUT AND VOTE.

OBAMA SUPPORTERS, THIS RACE IS NOT DONE UNTIL ALL THE VOTING IN EVERY STATE IS DONE.
SO OBAMA VOTERS GET OUT AND VOTE, NO MATTER WHAT THE MEDIA SAYS, OBAMA NEEDS ALL YOUR VOTES, THIS RACE IS NOT OVER UNTIL ALL THE STATES HAVE VOTED!!!

[Anonani]

12:26 AM on 05/10/2008

I agree 100% with realtalk. Complacency cannot help in this dog eat dog race to the White House. I can only hope that Senator Obama's advisors are smart enough to not throw in the towel when there are 6 more primaries that HRC is salivating over! And about Limbaugh, where is Homeland Security or the FBI when a radio personality so opening discussing his nefarious efforts to disrupt the electoral process! Excuse me doesn't this fall in the category of plotting to overthrow the government of the United States?

[Pamela1961]

02:34 AM on 05/10/2008

The republicans don't listen to Rush, they have time and time supported Obama as the weak link.

[SnapShots]

10:16 PM on 05/09/2008

Rush Limbaugh is to America what a cancer cell is to the body. He is an indication of serious ailments that lurk within our country.
Limbaugh's only passions are ratings and ad sales. He contributes nothing constructive, useful or positive to society. His heyday has long since passed and he knows it.
As the last of the old-time conservative Republicans and their daddies are escorted out of the White House, we can begin healing our country with improved ways of respecting the global community, doing business ethically, creating a sustainable existence and restoring America's reputation around the world as the 'great moralists.'
As for Limbaugh, ignore him and he will go away.

[cuzkate]

09:27 AM on 05/10/2008

amen, amen to that

[lthuedk 1]

09:31 PM on 05/09/2008

What right to vote-or chose-exists when anti-democracy horn Limbaugh overreaches? The state of the totalitarians has deteriorated, indeed. Limbaugh's every spasmodic jerk will be savored as long as it lasts. Study it and make sure future generations get the memo.

Those that played with Rush have no sense of loyalty to the Constitution whatsoever.

-

http://www.light-to-dark.com/coulter_limbaugh_oreilly.html

[shrugged]

06:49 PM on 05/09/2008

Limbaugh notes he now wants Obama to win, because Obama will be easier for McCain to beat.
However, there is not much need to track Limbaugh. He is losing his audience since he sold his principles and started supporting McCain.

[ornovscot]

09:26 PM on 05/09/2008

There was a time when I found Mr. Limbaugh funny and some of his criticisms of politics in general as having some substance.

Now I recognize this gentleman for what he is: a negative and destructive influence.

[northcan]

10:10 AM on 05/09/2008

Yes, the Limbaugh contribution did work. Many different post's and queries stated this fact, and if you look at North Carolina and Indiana, PA before this last, the voting registration changed, court ordered ID was necessary, in NC.....you had WVWV.....voter suppression going on against a black population area, was quickly identified and the robo calls went back to an associate of Hillary Clinton in DC.

This was done also in Nevada, Texas, N.H., and though not much has been made of it in the media, there will be pending charges. Probably after primary is settled. Clinton knows this, she has a lot to lose. Media not touching it. Their finances also tell you a story that their large donors are under court order on charges and probably have frozen bank accounts.

Clinton doesn't get the small donations Obama does, and doesn't get the majority of delegates in states unless she does it deceitfully. This means she is the weakest candidate, with a high negative, running a campaign that she diligently has to work. Feminism is long gone ladies. we do have strength without the balls necessary to prove your 'rocky' side.

It's called Emotional IQ. Confidence from integrity, not slime. Hillary Clinton should not run as a 'first woman president' when she has done nothing to prove the great qualities that women behold. She shows the ugly side, the dysfunctional side of humanity.

[TruthIsAll]

08:15 AM on 05/09/2008

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/OperationChaos.htm

Operation Chaos Caused Obama to Lose Indiana and Texas

The latest media myth is that Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos had no effect on the Indiana primary. Their argument is that the Clinton-Obama (53-47) share of the 10% Republican crossover vote is virtually the same as the (51-49) split in the total vote. This analysis will show that were it not for Operation Chaos, Obama would have definitely won Indiana and very possibly Texas. Well, at least one blogger gets it.



The media fails to recognize that since March 4, there have been two sets of Republican crossover voters. The first group consists of the 40-50% who were driven by Operation Chaos. The other consists of moderates who are strongly for Obama.



Final Exit poll data shows that since Operation Chaos began on March 4 in OH and TX, the percentage of Republican crossover voters has risen from 6% to 9%. The increase has been almost totally to Clinton's benefit.



Prior to March 4 (before Operation Chaos), 7 primaries allowed Republicans to participate. Obama won their vote by an average of 59-28%. He won all 7 primaries by an average 58-37% share.



Since Operation Chaos began on March 4, 5 primaries have been open to Republicans. Clinton won their vote by an average 57-41%. Obama won 2 of the 5 primaries (but should have won 4). He had an average 51-47% share in the 5 primaries.

[yeswecancan]

10:26 PM on 05/08/2008

Rush has been doing this since at least Texas and the party of Richard Nixon and his burglars and buggers and thieves and tricksters has jumped in gleefully. No matter that it's illegal in many states (voter fraud) -- nobody seems to have the cojones to prosecute. All the more reason that Mrs. Clinton's "post-rational" decision to keep this race going is so infuriating to Obama supporters like me. And anybody that uses their vote this way is no patriot and no true American.

[JerryinATL]

05:44 PM on 05/09/2008

we have the freedon in america to vote in open primarries any way we want.

both parties have vote tampered in THIS primary, and the general elections since the beggining of our country.

you say 'And anybody that uses their vote this way is no patriot and no true American', and I say get a life and grow up

[quest44]

07:30 PM on 05/09/2008

I say to you Jerry if you believe tampering with the Democrats right to vote for who they chose in this matter is not corrupt against our right to vote and unpariotic you must be from a Communist country.
Rush Limbaugh should have been ashamed of himself to even suggest to his fellow Republican's to try and sway the vote and cause chaos in the Democratic primary but he was proud ,,get that he was proud to publicly announce that Republican's will try to win an election by stooping to voter fraud . This man is a disgrace to this country for trampling on our rights as American's by asking Republican's to fraudulantly cast Democatic votes to try and nominate a candidate they think their candidate has a better chance of winning against.There is no other word for what he did but voter fraud .Shame on any of you Republican's who participated in such a corrupt act.

[freneticd]

11:41 PM on 05/09/2008

Hitler is said to be a genius of politics. That alone should tell us what politics really is. - Wilhelm Reich, " The Mass Psychology of Fascism", 1933

Farce and fraud with lethal end-results have defined American politics as long as I've been watching. Rush is a mean-spirited buffoon, but ultimately he's a political lightweight, otherwise he's be an elected official himself. Still, I personally find it difficult to get angry at an old man who's into hard drugs and hookers.

[rascalov]

07:38 PM on 05/08/2008

Anyone who would take their precious vote and waste it because of what a radio talk show freak told them to do is hopelessly senile and beyond all help.

[JerryinATL]

05:46 PM on 05/09/2008

like you are for letting anyof this bother you! get a life!

[Rule Of Law]

07:08 PM on 05/08/2008

once more--I found this in a book on psychiatry, so it must be true:

Most persons of the corpulent persuasion, like Rush, tend to be statistically more likely to not
have been breast fed, and later in life, in an attempt to to compensate for that lack of bonding and intimacy, will often become drug addicted, monmaniacal, blow hards without any sense of proportion or dignity.

With some people, there is only black and white.

[RedEyes]

06:38 PM on 05/08/2008

The question isn't whether or not Rush affected the election. The question is whether anyone will have the brains to stop it from happening again. But that would involve something crazy...like changing election laws to only have closed primaries. Wait a minute....no, let's just keep whining about it. We need someone to blame our problems on and Bush is on his way out!

[quest44]

07:52 PM on 05/09/2008

Actually Redeyes we should start with Rush Limbaughs public announcement of voter fraud and take his arse to court and lock his arse up ,,,then we should change the law that allowed a Rep to vote Dem in the Primary and then switch back again in the general .Hey there is still time to make sure these communists don't get to change their party in the general and lose their right to vote since they seem to think its perfectly okay to do this to voters.

[dumboldman]

02:26 PM on 05/10/2008

I really don't have a dog in this fight - BUT! No one has to declare who they vote for in the general election. For years the Democrat party in Alabama, Georgia and other deep south states have been able to convince the black population that they had to vote a straight party ticket; they even went into the booth to help them mark their ballot.

This time honored practice may be how this silly notion started. But just look at your ballot when you go to the polls. ALL the candidates will be on the ballot and you can vote for ONE candidate for each office from president to dog catcher. And if you don't like the choices provided by the parties - you can always write in your choice.

[robbor]

08:48 AM on 05/08/2008

"Limbaugh Effect Seems To Rear Its Head"............that's what happens when you have to take Viagra and I can only imagine it is ugly

[DMBreck]

06:46 PM on 05/08/2008

yeah.....AND IT SHOWS JUST HOW BAD A CANDIDATE SHE IT.......even with all the diito heads she has still lost!......OR........ RUSH NO LONGER HAS ANY IMPACT ON POLITICS and the dittos didnt cros over!

SOME OF BOTH I THINK.......HANNITY TALKED HIMSELF SILLY AND DIDNT TAKE OBAMA DOWN WITH EITHER REV.WRIGHT OR HAYES!........FOX,RUSH,HANNITY ARE OVER AND THEY KNOW IT.....EVERYTIME THE LOOK AT OBAMA! LOL!!!!!!