Obama In Kentucky And West Virginia: Why Will He Lose?

Barack Obama is now the presumed nominee of the Democratic party. His lead in delegates, popular vote and states won cannot by broken by Sen. Clinton, save some freak occurrence. This weekend, Obama passed Clinton in the number of superdelegate endorsements, according to the Associated Press.

And yet despite his status, Obama is no match for Sen. Clinton in Kentucky and West Virginia. In the few polls that have come out over the past few weeks, Clinton has maintained a huge 30-point margin in both states. Even surveys completed after her disappointing performances in Indiana and North Carolina show an electorate entirely unfazed. And while Clinton has still proven herself popular among a large number of voters, her lead in West Virginia and Kentucky is unlike nearly any previous contest. So why is Barack Obama going to lose?

At least one pollster thinks the issue of race is defining the Kentucky primary:

"I'll be very blunt," said pollster Del Ali, president of Research 2000. "Even if there wasn't a Rev. Wright controversy, I think Obama would have a tough time in Kentucky, for obvious reasons."

The fact that 56 percent of interviewed voters said Obama's race was not important could be due to something called the Bradley effect, Ardrey said. In 1982, Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, who was black, was predicted to win the governor's race by a comfortable margin but lost.

And while the issue may not be race generally, comments from Obama's former pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright have made a big impression:

Among white voters, Wright's statements were important to 46 percent, compared to only 11 percent of black voters.

"Race is still the elephant in the room, and the Rev. Wright issue hits at remaining racial prejudices and fears that people here might have," said Saundra Ardrey, head of the political science department at Western Kentucky University.

Meanwhile, Obama's bitter comment seem to be affecting him more in West Virginia than they ever did in Pennsylvana:

A visit to Mingo County, a Democratic stronghold in the heart of the Appalachian coalfields, reveals the scale of Mr Obama's challenge - not only in West Virginia but in white, working-class communities across the US. With a gun shop on its main street and churches dotted throughout the town, Williamson is the kind of community evoked by Mr Obama's controversial comments last month about "bitter" small-town voters who "cling to guns or religion".

"If he is the nominee, the Democrats have no chance of winning West Virginia," said Missy Endicott, a 40- year-old school administrator. "He doesn't understand ordinary Americans."

The LA Times notes today that Clinton's dominance in West Virginia (and Kentucky) is precisely why she needs to stay in the race:

Because with her name still on the ballots, she'd be very likely to win in West Virginia anyway. And maybe Kentucky too, given the demographics in both places. And possibly Puerto Rico as well.

How would that look if at the end of the Democratic race the winning candidate with clearly the most delegates and popular votes went down to defeat against a candidate who isn't in the contest anymore? Ouch! That would tend to overshadow his expected wins in Oregon and Montana.

Comments

[jaynevada]

Check the ABC News story on Congressional Pork: http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Vote2008/Story?id=4572406&page=2

"Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., received 53 earmarks for his state, worth $97.4 million... Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has never asked for an earmark.""

Obama asked for a earmark for his wife's employer, and her salary more than doubled.

Let's all chant together "Yes we can, yes we can. WE WANT MORE EARMARKS, MORE PORK, MORE CORRUPTION"

And then chant "Change we can believe in. WE WANT MORE PORK, MORE IGNORANCE, MORE CORRUPTION".

[tbone99]

Now this crap is outrageous!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/12/AR2008051203014_pf.html

[elbzee]

Outrageous, yes. I'm fascinated by the fact that closed minded bigots and haters are incapable of hiding from the light. Their stink permeates through. This doesn't surprise me at all. I've spent plenty of time in Western Pa. and still have quite a lot of family there. From that basis I do know that prejudice runs deep there. (And yes, I am ashamed to say I have kin with those views.) I now live in Upstate NY. When talking with people about the election I am understandably enthusiastic for Obama. That enthusiasm spills over. The MOST FREQUENT response I get is "I'd never vote for a n*****". I work very hard not to scream or become physical. Instead I point out the facts and watch the faces. I think the major thing is to get over the knee-jerk fear with reason and facts. It works sometimes. And it doesn't sometimes. I can tell when the wheels start to turn. I can also tell when they come to a screeching halt. Sadly, there is white trash all over. What an awful thing to stop the forward progress of hope in this country.

[NoSpinTruthZone]

Who's using race in this election?

[dumboldman]

Don't worry, Obama won't need W Va and KY. He has 57 states to work with. That's what he said (57 states.) Is the man stupid or on dope. There are 57 Islamic States in the UN. Maybe that is what he is talking about.

[noop]

He misspoke and said 57 states instead of 57 contests. Anyone involved in the Democratic primary knows that there are 57 contests including the states, territories, Democrats abroad, etc. I don't see how you could justify turning an obvious one-word slip into an anti-Islamic tirade, but it sure makes you look like a raving bigot.

[dumboldman]

Maybe. But he was talking about states where he had campaigned and he said he had been to 57 of them and he still has one to go. There are more 57 contests in the Democratic primary/caucus process and he has not been to all of them. ( and by his statement still has two States to visit). If Clinton had said this she would be catching flack of a very serious nature.

p.s. I think it takes more than 1 question to constitute a tirade or make one a raving bigot. Take a look at the interview and let me know what you really think.

[ByeObama]

How do you justify the other 67 lies he told this campaign..you are not pulling the wool over anyones eyes..this is a very tainted, illassociated liar!!Barack hussein Obama..HILLARY 2008!

[ByeObama]

Interesting COMMENT!! HILLARY IS KILLING OBAMA IN THE PRIMARY IN WEST VIRGINIA AND WINNING WITH ALL WALKS OF PEOPLE>>>OBAMA>>>CAN"T HOLD HIS OWN BASE>>>PEOPLE SHOW UP IN RECORD NUMBERS TO VOTE FOR HILLARY>>>THE MSNBC, CNN and The Democratic party are all stuck on stupid!!! and swaying the election by making up new rules to disqualify states full of people's vote because they changed their primary date..this is not a rule of the democratic party..they are swaying the election for a unelectable tainted, illassociated, Bser..B. Huessein Obama!..HILLARY GO INDEPENDENT IF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY WANTS TO PLAY UNFAIR GAMES>>>GO INDEPENDENT YOU ARE THE ONE WHO WILL WIN YOU HAVE THE WILL OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE BEHIND YOU THE INFORMED!! HILLARY 2008!

[northeast73]

Jimmy Carter won West Virginia TWICE>

Mike Dukakis even won West Virginina.

Bill Clinton won it TWICE AND won Kentucky.

Gore and kerry both lost WV and would both be in the White House if they hadnt.

[Daisy1111]

Racism or the post-Rev. Wright effect?

I'd sat it's the Reverend more than racism.

How many states has Obama won by a large margin since Wright did his greatest hits on TV over three days?

One: North Carolina.

Perhaps AA's and white liberals are not concerned with Rev. Wright's rhetoric and Obama's alligencie to the guy for 20 years.

But a lot of other voters (including Hispanics) were upset and concerned after seeing Wright do his "US government infected Black people with AIDs" routine. (Anyone who knows how Aids spread through the USA knows this is not true - gay people and intravenous drug users were hit first by the disease. It took a couple years before it spread the heterosexual population, white and black).

Like it or not, Obama waited too long to completely cut his ties with Wright.

Question is -- how many people who voted before Rev. Wright appeared on TV spouting his whacky rhetoric are notw thinking twice about voting for Obama in the GE.

The Rev. Wright-effect -- do not under-estimate it.

[northeast73]

Blah blah blah...

We know....there ALLLL racists.....just like whites in PA, IN, NC, TX, RI, CA, MA, NY, NJ, NH.....all of them racists.

Here's a theory....maybe Barack Obama's candiacey has tanked and everyone EXCEPT Black voters have left him big time.

[CarmenCameron]

Notice: It's spelled "they're" (not "there").

Assuming you are a typical Hillary supporter, "northeast73", to answer your question, among the 10,000 of us who showed up to hear Sen. Obama speak in Louisville, KY, last night, the crowd was evenly mixed between black and white, male and female, young and old.

Blessed are the peacemaker's (whomever their pastor happens to be).

Good news, yes?

[RomeyDA]

RACE RACE RACE YES SO TRUE
ROVE INC will get John Mccain to use Race
McCain hired John Quinn

RACE SEX crime is the GOP plan for all democrats
Unless of course people are wise enought to see thru

[FlowerGirl]

I don't suppose anyone has told Kentuckians that it was white working class Southern Reagan Democrats that she said "screw 'em" about in the 90s.

[CarmenCameron]

As a transplant from San Francisco, I am happy that I can personally attest to the fact that the urban areas of Kentucky bear little to no resemblance to the "backward, barefoot and toothless image" most of us hold of this state. The more rural areas, however, ARE decidedly backward, barefoot and toothless, most especially in the mountain areas. And that is cause for national shame not condemnation.

The attitudes that I am encountering here in Kentucky, to me (at least), attest FAR more to this basic FACT of an unconscionable educational and economic disparities in this nation than it does to some supposedly "intrinsic" nature of racism, itself.

Sadly, both local AND national professional politicians do virtually nothing to alleviate this state of affairs as it tends to serve their purposes nicely. And for that fact, our nation suffers as a whole as such pockets of uninformed citizens tend to vote against their own best interests, being so easily manipulated.

And that is just one of the reasons why I support Sen. Obama. His educational initiatives are firmly based in his own life's story. And if racism is EVER to end, education and economic opportunity must be equally accessible to ALL.

[admchriss]

It is apparent that the so-called "effects" of Wright and bitter are excuses for exercising prejudice.

Most of those who are prejudiced would leave their Christian faith if they found out Christ were black or Jewish.

[NoSpinTruthZone]

We're in agreement that the Obama camp is using race and the illusion of elitism to solidify their base.

As I've mentioned earlier, race is this years gay marriage.

If you believe the bile in the piece then you haven't looked at this objectively.

Ross Perot and Ron Paul are both candidates for whom the effects of racism were tangible (though to give each credit I haven't seen any independent verification of this as neither candidate were on my radar).

If your presumption of prejudice had merit we would have already seen the fallout.

There has been little if any fallout from this. These are run ending revelations for many candidates (eg Perot, Paul). One must look at other reasons why he's not bringing in the moderate vote.

Unfortunately, for that to happen, there must be objectivity.

If I've learned anything from this election cycle it's that there is little difference between the neo-conservative radical right, and the liberal radical left.

[dagnew]

Jesus was Jewish.

[pleeezzze]

Of course he was , how silly .

[mamamay]

It is very sad that grown folks are setting the example for younger folks to ACT out when not being understood. Teachers have this problem with students who refuse to understand what people say when they themselves do not understand. WHY didn't the voters ASK Obama what he meant when speaking about anger and bitterness re the Economic crisis? This is a poor excuse of trying to understand the candidates via the media. We certainly need to educate our young and old, so that America is not misunderstood by our foreign countries as being green in the brain and this does not pertain to global warming. We need to bring our voters together in WVA, KY and other states to heal our Primary differences. This is why I call our situation sad. Shame on who ever tries to continue this uncalled for child's play.

[hammerdown]

The Bradley effect is not a good analogy. Bradley was the first black Police Chief in Los Angeles before serving on the City Council. He was then Mayor for many years and well respected. Like most politicians he started out fairly clean and worked his way down. By the time he ran for governor there were connections to special interests and scandals involving his wife and family. California is almost like two states with the power factions of Northern California and Southern California being in a constant struggle. Race was a very minor factor in his defeat. Willy Brown from the North, who is black, was the most powerful force in the Democrat Party at the time. The Republican Party in California was and is alive and well and at the time ran a better campaign and an acceptable candidate. You should think more in terms of the recall election of Gray Davis and replacement with Gov. Arnold the terminator instead of racism being Bradleys' downfall.

[NoSpinTruthZone]

Reality is secondary to an agenda.

Their race baiting, which would make Karl proud.

This is the abortion/gay marriage non-issue of '08.

[redraymonds]

its sad to see people being judged by their skin colour, obama has played more ads in the tvs and radios in the west virginia and kentucky than hillary, although he has not campaigned as much in physical person, he is bound to loose in those states,im of mixed race, both white and black, and its sad to be always known as the darker race

[northeast73]

there are no blacks in WV or KY to give him a victory. Thats all he has left since his March meltdown....

[JHCowboy]

This is so sad about Kentucky and West Virginia. I have a good friend who is from West Virginia and he said it is true about many of the people in his state being racist. Did anyone look at the Hillary Clinton rally clips from Youtube or on the t.v. from West Virginia? If you look at those crowds I failed to see but very few African American and other racial minorities in those crowds. The faces looked very white from pretty much every angle. That's very telling that these people (especially in the urban centers) are not open to change otherwise it is very likely (especially for Eastern U.S. communities) that this mono-culture is very closed to anything progressive.

I notice that Hillary also uses a lot of the typical Republican rhetoric in order to attract more voters. My friend from West Virginia said it was the gas tax holiday that finally turned him off to voting for Hillary and he has since woken up to a lot of the other antics (unethical practices of do anything to get elected kind o approach) that Hillary's campaign has been involved in over the months.

[raskolnikov72]

"[Re: Kentucky ] The fact that 56 percent of interviewed voters said Obama's race was not important could be due to something called the Bradley effect .. "

Uhhh .. does anyone else find that comical? So, 44% of the people do find it important and we're to believe its the Bradley effect that's going hurt Obama in Kentucky?

You might as well say 44% of the KY electorate will _not_ vote for Obama because he's black. That leaves 56% he can fight for. If he splits 50-50 with Clinton in that he loses 72 to 28.

errr - of *course* there is a "Bradley" effect. You might as well call it the "no chance in hell that Kentucky will Vote for a Black guy in the next 50 years effect ..."

[NoSpinTruthZone]

LIberals are such stupid folk.

[elbzee]

Now THERE was a valuable contribution. Thank you for sharing NSTZ. (Hmmmm, Nasty...appropriate!)