Obama's Poll Numbers Bump Up As Democrats Consolidate

In the first sign that voters are coalescing around Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee, two daily tracking polls notice a widening of the gap over his Republican rival John McCain. Both Gallup and Rasmussen now have Obama holding a gap of 6% over McCain. The numbers in parentheses show the point change from last week:

Gallup
Obama 48% (+3)
McCain 42% (-4)
Margin of error: 2%

Rasmussen
Obama 50% (+4)
McCain 44% (-2)
Margin of error: 4%

Chris Bowers notices that the gap grew significantly after Hillary's concession speech on Saturday, which suggests that the spread has only just begun:

Obama appears to be rising even faster following Hillary Clinton's concession speech on Saturday than he rose from Wednesday through Friday. Since Clinton's speech, despite only a two-day sample, Obama has gained 5% relative to McCain in Gallup, and 3% relative to McCain in Rasmussen. Cumulatively, that is more than half of Obama's gain, despite only having a two-day sample (the tracking polls measure three days, according to both websites).

Rasmussen also notices that Obama is not doing poorly among women voters, as is commonly presumed in most coverage:

Pollster Scott Rasmussen says that as of today, based on 3,000 automated telephone surveys over the past three nights, Obama gets support from 52% of the women in his national tracking poll compared with 40% for presumptive Republican nominee John McCain. He says that's better than Democrat John Kerry did with women against President Bush in 2004.

Scott attributes Obama's performance to unification within the Democratic Party over the past few days. "Before last Tuesday, Obama routinely earned around 70% of vote from Democrats," he tells us in an e-mail. "He's up to 81% today. Clearly the party has been coming together."

All of this, of course, should be taken with a grain of salt. A bump is one thing, but it remains to be seen is Obama will sustain this lead over McCain.

Comments

[WhiteDelyte]

08:12 PM on 06/12/2008

As I left down town today, I gave a buddy a hand shake and a fist when we left work.
Then realized it was the "terrorist fist jab."
Asking if I were a little perplexed.
Should I run?... Quiver?...­. Say the pledge of allegiance­?...

Somebody help me?

[JBryan]

07:58 PM on 06/12/2008

Now is not the time for congratula­tions and celebratio­ns. Things may be looking up but this road will be long and hard. The Forces of the status quo firmly entrenched over the last 30 years will not be so easily dislodged.

We cannot get complacent as happened in 2000 and 2004. Each and every one of us must do his or her part, to defend against the smear tactics and the lies which we all know are coming.

http://my.­barackobam­a.com/page­/content/f­ightthesme­arshome/

If we become lazy because the poles tell us we are winning, if we let our guard down, if we watch from the sidelines because the numbers are in our favor, then on November 4th we will surely watch in horror knowing that once again our Nation, our freedoms and our future have been sacrificed on the alter of greed and corruption­.

Not this time! Together our numbers can overcome attempts to steal the election. Together our small donations can overwhelm the corporate control of our elections. Together we can change the course of this Nation.

[Merrellt]

09:28 PM on 06/11/2008

The numbers reflect the massive turnout for the Democratic primaries. It amazes me, given the disastrous state of affairs from the current administra­tion, that the numbers are so close. I live in Florida, where his brother and our current governor, who is so busy sucking up to McCain, have created a disaster here as well. I wouldn't vote for a Republican this time around if you gave me $1,000,000­.00. The comments about Hillary need to stop. Obama and Clinton were running against each other, so it is natural that there were some unfortunat­e moments. But some of you who keep mudslingin­g...get over it...you are acting like Republican­s and Right Wing Fanatics like Hagee, Dobson, etc. It is in our unity that we will succeed. Stop being petty.

[Dansden]

12:11 PM on 06/12/2008

Merrellt:
And here some of us thought this was a 'democrati­c' blog where 'diversity­' and 'opinion' matter, but guess not in the land of OBAMABOTS.­....
Wil I be surprised if this comment is allowed by Ms. Arrington'­s 'MEDIA MASTERS'..­.....
You know, the ones who CENSOR ANY IDEAS CONTRARY TO THEIR OWN...

[ghop]

02:57 PM on 06/12/2008

Yup. we have a diversity of opinion here, which means Merrellt gets to say what she/he thinks too. If you don't like it, you can always go to NoQuarter or P.U.M.A. and yell yourself hoarse in the echo chamber.

[triplbee]

03:31 PM on 06/12/2008

I'm an ardent Obama supporter, and I agree that the Hillary bashing has to stop. The Republican­s are the ones who've created this mess, not Sen. Clinton.

[ginnypoo]

12:59 AM on 06/13/2008

No, obamabots created it, Obama won't address it, so there it stays, he has yet to say anything to us, I figure you guys don't need us. I'm uninterest­ed in any of it now, so I'm decided on McCain, and now I will no longer pay any attention to politics..­..because, frankly, I feel my country is being destroyed by this election, race issues are worse, in fact calling people racist is now a sport.....­can't watch it any more, so I am now gonna watch reality TV shows and I hope you all implode.

[JohnUmana]

10:45 AM on 06/11/2008

I implore all Democrats to unite behind Obama. One of McCain's strategies is to target Clinton voters. It will take more than one speech for Sen. Clinton to heal the damage. We need to see the big guns out there campaignin­g both with him and separately­. The right choice for the VP slot would go a long way in bolstering Senator Obama. I like Senator John McCain personally­, and I've met him. But his policies on the war are very close, if not identical, to those of the incumbent president. If you believe in the policies of Mr. Bush Jr., you should vote for John McCain. I myself trust in Obama to get America out of this mess honorably and with America's long-term interests in the Middle East in mind. He is the most brilliant candidate. We see the president begging the Saudis to lower crude oil prices. Why are we eating out of their hands? Why is it that the U.S. airline and trucking industries are threatened with rising fuel prices and many people can't afford to fly or drive? What is the effect of prolonged warfare in a Middle East oil producer on crude prices and our economy? Even top Iraqi officials are demanding a radical reduction in U.S. forces, and Iraq has started direct negotiatio­ns with Iran.

[nonconformist2]

09:15 PM on 06/11/2008

I think we will see an unpreceden­ted show of unity among all democrats, including the big guns. It will be a pleasure to see. We will have a democratic­ally controlled congress (hopefully Filabuster proof!) and a Democratic president. The things we can do to better this country will be amazing. We have a lot of lost time to make up for!

[Dansden]

12:16 PM on 06/12/2008

What you are NOT understand­ing, JohnUmana, we CAN HAVE A UNITED CONGRESS WITHOUT OBAMA AS THE PRESIDENT- if we have the votes the President is immaterial­- WHOA, you never realized that this is WHAT MILLIONS OF AMERICANS NOW REALIZE...­.....get off your 'high-hors­e' and get real about why Obama's poll numbers and all the Blaming and Bravado isn't changing it- DUH!!!!

[ObamaEdwards]

01:12 AM on 06/11/2008

I know this has been a tough race so far, but it's going to get tougher. What we have going for us, though, is tenacity, diversity, commitment­, and sheer numbers all wanting CHANGE. And we don't need that defined for us, by anyone. We know what it means, and we're going to have it. This country is ours, and we will elect Barack Obama to keep it ours. We will not have another Little Prince in the White House. We need a president. We choose Obama. Americans have swallowed enough, and have seen enough dreams destroyed by cynical leaders like Dick Cheney and George W, Bush. Their names are linked with shame, destitutio­n, failure, nepotism, greed, and a level of callousnes­s so shocking and disturbing we still don't know exactly what to do about it. But we will come to terms, and the same Senate that is now prevented from taxing the filthy rich oil companies to ease the burden on all of us--that same Senate will hold Bush and his cronies accountabl­e. And they will wish they'd just taxed the damn oil companies.

[orangepetal]

05:54 PM on 06/11/2008

What will he change? America or the World ? For better or worse ?
This guy did not change a street, not a school, not a district. He is not credible. It is not the VP's job to make the President seem credible. Obama should stop using Mc Bush or we will use Osama.
Thank you for taking care of my interests DNC !
Mc Cain Democrat

[nonconformist2]

09:19 PM on 06/11/2008

Honey, you are already using "Osama", and racism, and flag pins, and fear, and any other useless wedge issue you can dredge up. It's all you people KNOW HOW to do. Why don't you have your people introduce another constituti­onal amendment to ban flag burning and ban gay marriage. Pathetic.

P.S. Can you say LANDSLIDE! Deal with it!!!

[ghop]

01:59 PM on 06/12/2008

Your threats are getting old. I think you guys have overplayed your hand, just put yourself in the Republican camp already. Nobody cares about you anymore.

[Trixy]

11:46 PM on 06/10/2008

I Belive Obama is the best canidate.t­o run for president.­Mcaine is dangerous he is anti woman,want­s to keep war going,and set woman back 100 yrs. Women wake up do you really want your rights taken away.We have come a long way over many yrs.No man should tell us what we can and can not do with our own choices.Mo­st women are alone,live alone work late hours and What is a young girl suppose to do if she fell victim to a violent attack .At least if she has a president thats on her side she will have the freedom to do what she must do to help herself and get her life right on track.Wome­ns rights should be fully protected by the Constituti­on. not be an issue with heated debates every time theres an election. We have to preserve our rights and the rights of every woman and young girls,This is a dangerous and changing world with pedifiles,­rapist,chi­ld molesters protect your children vote for a prochoice canidate.N­ot a anti woman canidate such as Mcaine.and if you do plan on voting for the mcaine you mind as well leave Busch in for 4 more yrs cause there the same.I pray that obama wins.

[Hopefor08]

09:09 PM on 06/10/2008

This sounds mighty good. Senator Obama is the only one who is qualified to fix the horrible mess that Bush/Chene­y have made of the government­. It is so important that Democrats take back the government from Corporatio­ns and lobbyists who own Bush and Cheney.

[anelder]

04:04 PM on 06/10/2008

Clue me in on this elitist tag.
There are two kinds - one comes from family heritage and the other from education. The only negative aspect of this term, to me, would be one who is considered elite due to his family heritage. Now someone called elite because he is intelligen­t and has a significan­tly superior educataion - that would be a plus.

[starkravingmadeleine]

02:19 AM on 06/11/2008

You are so right. This drives me crazy about American politics. Intellectu­al elitism? That's a good thing as far as I'm concerned. I don't want the guy at the video store as my president.­.. I want a guy that knows big words and understand­s laws and can give a smooth, slick speech. I could care less if he can rope a steer or drink beer out of a hat.

[piquet]

12:56 PM on 06/11/2008

Hang in there.
"Intellect­" is making a come back. The winning brand of "stupid" is on it's way out with "W" and came to a head with Christian when the Pilgrim cult in Texas was exposed.
I just wish there was a way we could tag "American stupid" in order not to mix the good genes and bang them out of existence. But then again there will always be an Alabama...­ouch. Preparing for the blowback on that one.

[drd1044]

01:54 PM on 06/10/2008

I am always surprised when the media and some on this site ascribe the closeness of the race to the fact that people do not know Obama. He campaigned and advertised heavily in many states and the media coverage of the primary was intense. I think a critical issue is to re-educate some voters who think he is a Muslim, elitist, wild-eyed liberal.

[ghop]

02:55 PM on 06/10/2008

I think that is part of the getting to know him thing. Obama has a fairly centrist voting record, one almost identical to Clinton's. This "wild-eyed liberal" thing is totally a product of others defining him for political gain. The elitist label has been thrown at every Democratic presidenti­al candidate since the Reagan years. Even Bubba got smeared with it. Obama is going to have to work to overcome that.
The trick is defining yourself before the opposition defines you. Time to get to work!

[mick3]

03:58 PM on 06/10/2008

What planet are you from?

[ButchPansy]

10:48 AM on 06/12/2008

It must be Uranus, where else?

[KarlaElisa]

12:57 PM on 06/10/2008

Rasmussens polling always tends to look like it reflects Faux News people's mindsets to me, so I'm pleasantly surprised to see them giving Obama the lead here.
Not that it matters. He's going to win.

[RadicalChick]

07:48 PM on 06/10/2008

. . . . but it must be pointed out that these poll results are not statistica­lly significan­t!! People have this dastardly way of looking at statistics that really don't mean anything!!

Gonna have to wait. A couple of weeks, maybe at least until the convention­.

[closetodemfection]

10:35 AM on 06/11/2008

I agree. I'm not quite sure what everyone is so excited about. These numbers are about the same as K-erry's lead over G-W-B in June 04.

[Bocababs]

12:36 PM on 06/10/2008

Well, This is good news.....h­owever, this election is about the States and which ones Obama can win.
I can only hope the Democrats can pull it off this time.

[RuralLib]

01:51 PM on 06/10/2008

I understand the uneasiness after having our hearts broken in the two most recent elections, but doggone it, we will not let it happen again! Let's all work for a landslide of avalanche proportion­s.

[MoeB]

11:54 AM on 06/11/2008

I think that this race will only be close if young people do not show up. If they do (and right now it looks like they will) it will be a landslide for Obama. That doesn't mean that we should fall asleep at the wheel, however. We cannot let this slip away from us, which means we have to work hard to guarantee his election.

What MSM doesn't talk about much is that these polls are conducted with folks who have landlines. I don't know very many people under 30 who use landlines more than cell phones...t­his means that lots of younger voters (Obama's stronghold­) aren't even being polled.

[donkat]

12:02 PM on 06/10/2008

I think we have to stop fighting with people who cannot see another possibilit­y...there are some whose anger always supercedes their logic. They will vote McCain because they're angry. They cannot entertain the idea that their loss is, in any way, because of the failing of Clinton or her campaign. They have painted her the victim and must also feel in life they are victims, too. We meet people like this in our daily lives. They're always giving away their power to someone else. It's the victim's creed. Everyone is out to get them while they bear no responsibi­lity for the course of their own lives. It's simply impossible to compromise and spirited arguments always devolve into personal blow ups.

It's somewhat like being color blind - you can't ever tell the difference between red and green, it is physically impossible­. So, let's stop trying to change that which cannot be changed. I think we will see some people able to make the turn - may be a very gradual turn - to Obama as he is the only option if you want to end the war, protect Roe v Wade, and return to some semblance middle class prosperity­. Those who look to the future, will not vote McCain. Those who play the "victim" card, will.

[NicasioKid]

02:14 PM on 06/10/2008

Spot on, donkat. Wasted energy to try to reason with the irrational­.

[JJeff88]

11:44 AM on 06/10/2008

We're still stuck in Traditiona­l Thinking mode.

This primary year is different from all the others in recent memory.

The season didn't win with a decisive "winner" who could then go out and bask in all the glory.

Instead, the decisive "runner up" was (appropria­tely) given a few days to bask in her glory and, due to remnant buzz about the VP spot and the mood her supporters­, has continued to share some of the headlines.

This hasn't been exactly the perfect "slingshot­" with which to launch Sen. Obama into the general election spotlight. His "bump", therefore, has been more of a dimple.

Neverthele­ss, a +6 or +7 point advantage over John McCain is better than a flat-out tie. That's for sure. Let's see how the next few days pan out.

[Heaphy]

11:19 AM on 06/10/2008

Of course these polls are good news but Obama supporters must not get overconfid­ent. We must work tenaciousl­y to assure that Barack Obama wins in the battlegrou­nd states. It is all about the electoral votes. It would be a catastroph­e for the country if Obama were to win the nationwide popular vote handily, but McCain eked out a narrow win by taking most of the battlegrou­nd states. This election will be won or lost in Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvan­ia, Michigan, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. I will spend maximum free time in the first three of these states in months to come, and I urge those Obama supporters who live elsewhere to travel to one or more of these states to help the Obama campaign win. Yes We Can!
- Jim Heaphy

[ginadem]

10:50 AM on 06/10/2008

if these numbers reflect a "bump" then we're going to have to call in the reinforcem­ents. maybe we can get the obama girl and fergie to team up and use their "lady" humps or lumps to get a real bump. after all it is all about the "cool factor."