What Happens If Obama And McCain Reach Exact Tie In Electoral College?

Since we got some good discussion started in the polling thread about the possibility of a 269-269 electoral tie, I thought I'd run some numbers on it.

The simulation returned a tie 63 times out of 10,000 trials (0.63%). These 63 ties involved 56 distinct scenarios for producing that tie. The only scenarios to occur more than once were as follows:

4 Times: Obama wins Kerry states plus Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico, but loses New Hampshire. This is one of the two "obvious" scenarios. It matches the current polling in every state but Nevada, which would have to flip to McCain.

Read the whole story here.

Comments

[Hillrick]

Way too early to make a call but things will surely change as Senator Obama hits back all their attacks and we see McCain debate him. Not gonna be close. Nasty and dirty but not close.

[Tropiholic]

they'll get into a boxing ring and fight it out!

[steamboat]

Won't happen.........New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, and Missouri should all easily go democratic this time.

[M.S. Bellows, Jr. - Huffpost Blogger]

Does no one read the Constitution anymore? Jeez. Lemme check the copy in my vest pocket, and cross-check Drudge ...

Okay, here it is: in an electoral tie, the Chief Justice appoints himself President; the youngest law clerk becomes Veep.

However, District of Columbia ethics rules bar bar the Chief Justice from swearing himself in, disqualifying Roberts -- so by tradition President defaults to the senior Justice, John Paul Stevens.

However, that's only until the next running of the Kentucky Derby. Each candidate, by lottery, is assigned a horse. (VP candidates are assigned geldings.) Win and place determine P/VP, unless a filly is running -- in which case the filly's candidate is either disqualified altogether (see Fiorina vs. PO'd Hewlett-Packard Shareholders) or is entitled to be made President regardless of how well the filly actually runs (cf. Ferraro vs. Obama, Matthews, et al.)

If the Derby is not conclusive, the remaining position(s) are determined by solo hacky sack. Each person self-serves (the rule against same being suspended); the most moves before missing wins (the "Vince Foster" headshot = two points); unless, however, any candidate is disabled, in which case Bill Buckley's most direct male descendant selects a name from the Boston phone book.

If Justice Stevens (age 88) passes away between Inauguration and Derby Day, he is replaced by either Ralph Reed or the President of Planned Parenthood, determined by a pharmacist's toss of a 1965-era cellophane-wrapped Trojan (the "Griswold test").

Hope this helps.

[montiff]

Jesus Christ, thanks for making my week: M.S Bellows Jr. Funniest post ever.

[StephenJK]

Another piece of brilliance........aka feces.

[M.S. Bellows, Jr. - Huffpost Blogger]

Gee, what did I ever do to you? I'm going to go sulk, now!

[DoUntoOthers]

I though the sun's relationship to the 8 planets (sorry Pluto) had something to do with it, but after reading your straight-forward explanation, I guess I was wrong.

Why couldn't YOU be my High School history teacher... I at least would've enjoyed classes.

[Lane]

I am currently living in Nevada. I would hate to be in a state responsible for deciding the vote as this article states. God help any state in the precarious position of being the one that elected McSame and we continued down this same destructive path.

Are you listening Nevadans???????????????

[magen]

More out of touchness.

Obama's gonna win several traditionally red SOUTHERN states, as well as the Kerry states.

[joeinvt]

In case of a tie, Hillary gets it.

[HollywoodBill]

Probably the most intriguing situation is if there is indeed an electoral tie yet McCain wins the popular vote. Would a Democratic majority in the House and the Senate follow the will of the majority of the people? Would there be chaos? Real chaos.

[MACS]

.
No more than when the supremes CORINATED bush.
.

[sandiegoconservative]

Don't forget that Dems were all about popular voting until it got ugly between Clinton and Obama. Then all of the sudden its all about the delegates.

[mcole]

CORONATED*

[StephenJK]

Dont you wish they had boldface, italics and underline options to highlight your idiocy.

[Mike169]

It would be like one candidate winning the popular vote while the other wins the electoral vote - just can't happen!

[marymansour]

In that case the Supreme Court will take over again and guess who they'll choose. The conservative. I pray this doesn't happen.

[kevenseven]

Constitutionally, it would be decided by the congress.

[Doofus]

Please, read the entire item. The Supreme Court really has no role
if an Electoral Vote tie happens. It seems very complicated, but the
House of Reps (one vote per state) chooses the President, and
the Senate elects the VP. In each case, from among the top vote
getters.

[pinkyboo]

LOL

[fignozzle]

that is not gonna happen.

[iowamomof2]

Tim Russert had a prediction months before the 2000 election that one would win the popular vote and one would win the electoral college.

He had another prediction this year, an electoral college tie.

[kevenseven]

And he will have been wrong by only 60 electors.

[StephenJK]

TBQH, I place a lot more faith in Tim Russert, kevenseven. Nothing against you.

[rollingdivision]

Goes to the new house of representatives and Obama wins.

[Doofus]

Interesting & ironic, in the tie situation, DC (Washington, the capitol)
which votes in the Electoral College, apparently has no vote
in the House of Reps tie-breaker. In this scenario, the Senate
chooses the VP, who will become acting President if the House
can't agree on who's it's to be.

And we thought it was bad when the Supreme Court made the choice...