Study: China Will Win More Medals Than U.S. in Beijing

LONDON: China should win one more medal than the United States at the Beijing Olympics -- 88 to 87 -- and top the overall table for the first time, according to a survey released Monday by accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers.

"As the host nation in Beijing and (with) an economy which has grown very strongly since 2004, the medal 'target' of 88 for China according to our model is much higher than its actual medal totals in Athens (63) or Sydney (59)," said John Hawksworth, the report's author.

China was third in overall medals at Athens 2004, behind first-place United States (102) and Russia (92). China was second in gold medals behind the U.S. in 2004 -- 32 to 36.

Hawksworth predicted Russia will drop to third place at Beijing with 79 medals overall, down 13, followed by Germany (43), Australia (41), Japan (34), France (30), Italy (29), Britain (28) and South Korea (27).

The report lists significant factors behind a country's performance at the Olympics since 1988, including population, average income level and being the host nation.

"The bottom line is that size matters, but it is not everything," Hawksworth said. "David can sometimes slay Goliath in the Olympic arena."

India remains a "significant underperformer" and is predicted to get six medals in Beijing, compared with one silver medal at Athens.

"The most plausible explanation is that, with the exception of (field) hockey, Indian sport tends to be focused on events that are not included in the Olympics, most importantly cricket," Hawksworth said.

Last year, Italian Olympic official Luciano Barra forecast the United States would beat China in both gold medals and overall medals won.