Obama's Plan To Win In The South

New York Times:

As they look to the fall election, Democrats face a strategic decision that has bedeviled their party for 40 years: How hard should they fight in the South?

And how does having Senator Barack Obama at the top of the ticket affect that calculation?

Officials in Mr. Obama's campaign say they are bullish on the South, and they have signaled their aggressiveness with early campaign appearances in North Carolina and Virginia, major voter registration drives in the region, and television advertising in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia.

Steve Hildebrand, the deputy campaign manager for Mr. Obama, said he saw "tremendous potential" in several Southern states.

"If you go in and look at the number of unregistered voters in demographic groups that are important to Barack's candidacy -- younger voters, African-American voters -- the potential is just incredible," Mr. Hildebrand said.

And yet since the South began to shift away from the Democrats in the 1960s, it has become one of the biggest and reddest of the Republican strongholds. In the last two presidential elections, the Democrats failed to carry any of the 13 Southern states. Although recent Democratic nominees have typically gotten about 9 out of 10 of the votes of Southern blacks, they still need a substantial chunk of the white vote to prevail. Political scientists put that figure at close to 40 percent, though it depends on the state, and the Democrats have rarely gotten it.

Read the whole story: New York Times

Comments

[Plowboy]

Obama may not win the South this time, but he will keep McCain busy defending there. And he is laying the foundations for future wins there. He probably has no chance in KY, WV, and TN, but he coulkd easily win VA, maybe NC and GA. Moreover, if things break right, it isn't impossible for him to take LA & MS. He has some enthusiastic supporters there.
The main thing to observe after her becomes president is how the racist game in politics begins to die. It is now as sick as it has been sickening!

[McChimp]

McCain is too liberal for the red GOP south... about half of them will be voting for either Bob Barr or Nader, guaranteed.

Just the fact that two Democrats were able to win seats in the heavy GOP south signals a huge possibility of Barack Obama winning in the South.

Most of Americans are sick of the Bush far right GOP style politicians that play the same political games instead of actually fighting for the American people.

And I think Obama's strategy of forcing the Republicans to spend all their money across America will pay off in the end. In 2000 and 2004, they didn't need to spend money defending their own strongholds, since most of Americans were fooled by the swift-boating smears and lies. It's not the same case with now: Most of Americans are NOT easily fooled by fear smear swift-boat tactics, and the Republican brand is HEAVILY damaged.

If McCain is having trouble in his OWN homestate, that spells trouble for him AND the Republicans come November.

[GuyFawkes]

If Obama wins VA, NC, and GA, or even 2 out of 3, he has, essentially, won the south.

[politicalgenius]

Love the strategy because on the surface it is consistent with Dean's 50 state strategy as well as the message that BHO continues to spread, which is we are not seperate aggregations of BLUE and RED states but we are the United States and people are more than just Reps and Dems, we are Americans are don't have to be defined by the states we live in relation to how history shows voting used to be. But there will be those who discredit this strategy only because they don't like BHO. I say, KUDOS, finally we're starting be Americans again, not political parties.

[robynuva]

I defy anyone to find a sounthern town more racist than South Boston, MA.

Those of us living below the mason-dixon line are truly sick of the stereotypes our Northern brethren cling to. Yes, we have our racists, just as you can find racists in any state of the Union,.

By the way, painting an entire people with one brush is discriminatory. Why is it OK to say sweepingly derogatory things about Southerners, but not OK to do the same with any other group?

i

[GuyFawkes]

I posted in the Romney VP thread that he would help McDubya in Massachusetts, and that parts of Mass are not known for their fondness of blacks. I have friends from Boston who've dated interracially and said they were not particularly welcomed in their hoods.

[Krikkit]

There are three factors here. 1) New voters, including younger white progressives; 2) expected depressed republican votes due to Bush and McWhatever non-support; 3) forcing McLame to spend campaign cash in states that should already be safely his.

In the interstices of those three factors, O may just be able to change the southern electoral map here and there while drawing off challenges in purple states.

[marymansour]

My mother and I are senior citizens in Alabama and deeply devoted to Barack Obama. I can't say many are that way but when he came to Birmingham in February, I have never seen such long lines or so much intense excitement. Obama creates his own magic. I have been wearing in-your-face Obama tee shirts everywhere.

YES WE CAN!

[elr50]

As far as I am concerned, f---the south. I wish they had seceded after the Civil War. Land of inbred idiots.

[Krikkit]

Although I don't harbor your hatred of the South, I agree with you in wishing they had been allowed to secede. Had Lincoln let them go, they would have come crawling back within a generation begging to become part of the Union again, and we could have avoided our bloodiest war and nearly 150 years of North / South animosity and racial bigotry.

But that's just my take on alternate history.

[leftoflennon]

Not a fan of the south either, but maybe there is hope 1

[FebM]

I live in GA way off from ATL and there were 5 Obama events listed within 10 mile radius of my republican neighborhood on Saturday. McCain be afraid, be very afraid....

[Daisy1111]

That's right -- the best way to win the south is to call all the people who live there racists.

Sounds like a winning plan to me!

[Seven7s]

Well like with any election..­.the truth doesn't get you a win.

So although you were being sarcastic you are right.

Also lets not pretend people dont have good reason to call southerners racist. It's not exactly a stretch. We have been paying attention you know.

Any group of people defending the waving of the confederate flag in 2008 is not exactly the most tolerant people in the world.

[uvymopkq]

You must be bitter, typical white, most likly you have a gun. To change your outlook you MUST vote for a black man, with no expericence, no plan, who will call you a racist. He's proving to be a typical politician who is willing to say anything to get elected.

[Krikkit]

What deluded planet are you living on?

[UnknownSoldier]

People act if the North isn't racist, funny how the high profile police shootings of unarmed black men happen in the north quite a bit. When I stayed in Nebraska I was shocked to see white criminals on the local news channels. Living in New York City I didn't think white people commited crimes at all. So for people to sit here and call southerners racist is appalling, when I have encountered more racism in the North than I've ever encountered on my numerous trips to the south.

[solarenergy]

I am so ready to live in the 21st Century, but unfortunately, there are so many in the Deep South who prefer to live in the 19th Century, to fight on for Confederate victory, even though they know it will never come.

They will never recover the "right" to subjugate an entire race of people, to pick their tomatoes for them, to wash their clothes, for nothing more than a meal and a shack to sleep in.

But dammit, they will fly that flag until they croak, and then their children will fly it, too.

Just look at the Sunnis and Shiias...1­200 years and counting.

[Daisy1111]

You wrote:

"They will never recover the "right" to subjugate an entire race of people, to pick their tomatoes for them, to wash their clothes, for nothing more than a meal and a shack to sleep in."

Do you realize what you described above is not that far from the conditions suffered by undocumented migrant farm workers?

Google it to see how the agro-corporations treat these people.

Do you enjoy tomatoes on your salad?

Well then you're part of this 21st Century version of slavery too.

Oh -- and while your at it -- go look at the conditions of Chinese workers toiling in China-based factories wend by US corps.

You like your cheap electronics? You're part of the problem.

[wolverinesm]

The plight of the migrants is heart wrenching BUT please refrain from equating it to the legalized ownership of other people. It belittles the suffering of those who were slaves in this country.

[politicalgenius]

Undocumented migrant farm workers are a drain on this society. I'm sorry I'm not sorry, but I have no sympathy for them. Not when they don't pay taxes and are living in this country illegally, meanwhile Haitian boats and rafts are turned away from the gulf coast everyday. Not when Darfur is on the back burner of the political landscape because there's no economic value to helping Darfur. Where's your bleeding heart for them? If the UNDOCUMENTED MIGRANT FARM WORKERS lived here legally, then yes I would fight for them, but they're not and I don't have an obligation to fight for them and neither does our gov't.

And, you talk about Chinese workers before you bash other people for tomatoes or cheap electronics, walk through WalMart and find how many things are made in China, you'll be shocked to see that's it not just flat screen TVs. I'd do a little more research before I started name dropping 'oppressed' people. Slavery was based on laziness and entitlement and you should never in your life again undermine the conditions of the Middle Passage, the hardships of the men and women who are the backbone of this nation's history with associating illegal immigrants and foreign workers who only reason for the work they do is to increase the bottom line.

[politicalgenius]

Also, where's your bleeding heart for our fellow countrymen. It took our gov't almost a week to get water, WATER to Louisiana after Katrina. The media called these people, blacks and lower class/income whites refugees. How can you be a refuge in your own country/st­ate/town/h­ome? After the earthquake(s) in China the, Chinese gov't had styrofoam houses built along with grocery stores - not just water but all the basic necessities - for it's citizens ravaged by natural disasters and had/have the plan in motion to have homes rebuilt no later than 2010. Be careful of how, who and what you criticize, my parents always told me that emphasizing the point that there's always someone out there who knows a little more than you do - WOW, they were right.

[luvobama]

Did a bunch of moderators call in sick this shift? I know it's saturday nite and all...

[kellygrrrl]

does anybody realize in 2004 the percentage of voters who didn't show up in these categories:

- under 30
- women
- Africa-American

these people are going to show up in record numbers

[ssmit98]

You are so right! I smell a landslide underway :)

[BabsGOP]

There are no voters in November not registered yet, if you are political, you registered to vote months ago,anybody signs up now will not vote in Nov. Sure it is so easy to sign somebody up but four months away, if they are not registered,they do not care.

[ssmit98]

That is why many think the republicans are in trouble

[Heaphy]

Sorry for you and your war party, BabsGOP, but you are wrong. There will be a massive influx of energized new Democratic voters registering in the months to come - young people, poor people and the previously disillusioned and disenfranchised. They will flock to the polls in November in a fervent drive to bring the Bush years to an end, and to propel our candidate Barack Obama to the White House. Long-time Democratic activists like me have NEVER been as energized as now. We are determined to terminate the rule of your war party. Your time is over.
- Jim Heaphy

[Krikkit]

Dream on. Traditionally, only the most ardent supporters have taken part in the primaries. The number of primary voters has never come close to the number who vote in the general election.

The primaries and caucuses are a complicated affair, and most people "care" enough to vote for the nominee their party selects, rather than duking it out over primary candidates. This year was different in that more people got involved earlier, but that only provides an indicator of things to come in November.

There's plenty of people who have become interested in the process for the first time, but who haven't registered yet. Registration drives are all about helping those people get registered so they can vote. It's going to be amazing.

[kellygrrrl]

one difference this year in the good old south -- the AA vote is actually going to show up!!!!!

[luvobama]

Everyone who thinks is going to show up. We can thank Obama and Clinton and the entire democratic primary for the new interest in this election. It's going to be impressive. We had over 3,000 Obama campaign meetings in CA yesterday. There was one for everyone within reasonable driving distance. His strategies are brilliant.

[TrueBlueMajority]

Everyone who thinks is going to show up? That won't help--we need a majority.

RIP Adlai Stevenson.

[pacats]

kellygrrrl, the AA voters traditionally shows up. The difference this time was to register those AA's who had not voted in previous elections, or to rally those AA's registered as republicans or another party.

[harriscrl3]

This is not exactly true democrats win a large percentage of the AA vote but there is much room for improvement as far as voter turnout. This year in the primary they have turned out in numbers that they've never turned out before same for the youth vote.

Carol

[wanj]

Go get 'em Obama! The south might just go blue this year... It doesn't hurt to give it a good shot!

[luvobama]

It's quite remarkable to read that the southern states were democratic up until the civil rights movement. Coincidence? I think not. Racism is such a sad curse on our country. Look at what these people miss while nursing all of that hatred? Too much negative time and energy. A deep shame.

[beachpoet]

Please check your history on the politics of the South. Did you know that the founders of the KKK were Democrats? That Martin Luther King was a Republican? That Senator Robert Byrd himself (a Democrat) started a chapter of the KKK? I'm not attaching any judgments - but it really is fascinating. We should be careful not to become so overwrought with cheering for "our side" that we ignore reality and make assumptions that have no basis in fact.

[TrueBlueMajority]

it's a little bit more complicated than that.

This may help: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2004/11/29/4435/1611

[Krikkit]

You may be misreading history a bit. Democrats and Republicans switched to each others' platforms to a large extent around the time of and in the two decades following the Civil war. Up until that time, the Democrats were pro-slavery, pro-agrarian, and decidedly conservative. Republicans were anti-slavery and the party of progressives. Hard to believe, isn't it?

Blame President Rutheford B. Hayes (Republican) for turning the two parties on their heads. He won the presidency by secretly promising Southern Democrats to end military occupation of the south and forced reconstruction, to end civil rights all together. The strategy won him the election and so pandering to southern Democrats has been a Republican strategy ever since. He was, more than any other person, responsible for the fact that civil rights were not afforded to AAs until the Civil Rights movement of the 1960s.

[BEHM777]

It is time for the South to get over it. Vote your true interests for a change.