Obama's Missing 2 Percent: Cellphone-Only Users

Salon:

Say you want to reach a representative sample of the U.S. electorate for a presidential poll. The Obama-McCain race is relatively close these days, with the Democrat's lead hovering around 5 to 6 points in most surveys. Someone tells you that he's selected a sample that's predominantly under 40 years of age (oops, that one favors Obama); disproportionately renters rather than homeowners (Obama-leaning again); full of college students (sounds like a Starbucks Obama thing to me) -- and, for good measure, includes a higher proportion of blacks and Hispanics than the national population does.

At this point you throw up your hands and exclaim: "Why are we concentrating on such a pro-Obama universe? He could be leading by 20 points or more among those people!"

He could. He probably is. But in actuality, the sample I've described is either not being included at all in many national polls or is being undercounted. Why? Because I'm talking about the growing number of American cellphone users who have no other type of phone or who choose to go wireless for the vast majority of their interactive needs. And this election cycle -- for the first, and perhaps only, time -- this group has the chance to render presidential polls "wrong from the start": potentially disguising at least 2 to 3 percentage points of Obama support and maybe more.

Read the whole story: Salon

Comments

[pie8ter]

09:08 PM on 07/16/2008

Cellphones are for lamers ....Anyone heard of Telepathy?

[ThePeacemakers]

03:14 AM on 07/15/2008

northeast73:
"Then why is it that the "youth vote" numbers are EXACTLY THE SAME as they were in 2004.

More "media myths" about Obama that his press secretaries (the media) love to spread."

If you are referring to youth vote numbers that were done with polling, the number would be the same because they neglected to poll cell phone users in 2004, same as now. Also, would need to know if the numbers came from the exact same places, while this election has shown a much wider interest and activity.

[Daisy1111]

01:09 AM on 07/15/2008

Pew research did a study which found there wasn't much impact at all. Go look at the charts at the link below showing primary polls that included cell phone numbers.

Quote:

"Analysis of two separate nationwide studies shows that including interviews conducted by cell phone does not substantially change any key survey findings."

But even if you want to add one or two points to the dem candidate for all those cell phone voters, he's still in a vitual tie when 10-12% are undecided.

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/714/the-impact-of--cell-onlys-on-public-opinion-polls

[apoyo]

05:20 PM on 07/14/2008

Besides the land line vs cell phone debate, the bigger question is the SIZE of the sample. They never tell you how many people were polled. How can you make a rational deduction of what the numbers mean if you don't know if they polled 100 people or 1,000,000 people?

[pattio66]

03:48 PM on 07/14/2008

I'm in my 40's, a cell phone only chick, I know a lot of people and most of them are cell phone only. My parents, my kids, my friends, my neighbors, NOBODY sees the point in paying for a landline in the wireless age. So if pollsters can't call cells, the inevitable conclusion is that polls cannot be trusted.

[mcgreen]

04:56 PM on 07/14/2008

I'm in my 50's, we have VOIP as does my mom, my mother in law, brother in law, two sisters. The rest have cell phones... It's economics!

I can't believe in this electronic age the pollsters wouldn't know that landline numbers are fading away.

[leftoflennon]

02:58 PM on 07/14/2008

Nat'l polls mean absolute CRAP..

State polls matter.

[Purobi]

02:06 PM on 07/14/2008

Wait. How about VOIP lines? A lot of homes have only those and a number of businesses are going that way too.

[4wehttam]

02:28 PM on 07/14/2008

What's VOIP lines? Never heard that term before.

[Chillinout]

03:08 PM on 07/14/2008

Voice Over Internet Protocol.

[TheSecularist]

03:16 PM on 07/14/2008

like Vonage and your Time Warner Cable telephone service.

[southafrica4obama]

01:50 PM on 07/14/2008

True that. About 50 friends of mine only have cellphones.

[Outofnowhere]

02:13 PM on 07/14/2008

50 friends? How do you remember their names?

[Chillinout]

03:07 PM on 07/14/2008

Because their pictures are attached to their phone numbers so when you see one of your friends, all you have to do is scroll through your contacts list to attach a name to said friend.

At least that is how I would have to do it.

[JLee]

01:44 PM on 07/14/2008

Oh yeah, and does this remind anyone of the 1932 election? The polls showed Hoover to be ahead, but turned out to be skewed because a sizable number of FDR supporters didn't have telephones.

[Grunty1]

02:12 PM on 07/14/2008

For vastly different reasons, now because of technology, then because of rampant homelessness and poverty.

If B'ush and Mc'Cain have their way though, there won't be any difference...

[sociocanuck]

07:32 PM on 07/14/2008

Your last line totally completed my thought.

[JLee]

01:39 PM on 07/14/2008

I pulled my land line a long time ago because I couldn't stand the rampant marketing calls, and couldn't be bothered to put myself on a no-call list or whatever. Young, minority, female, post-graduate education, avid HuffPost reader... Yeah, I'd count myself among the 2%, and one guess on who I'm supporting this election. If they text me a poll question, I'm open to answering. :)

[StrayTalk]

02:19 PM on 07/14/2008

The national no-call list is easy to sign up on. And it works! My reason for still having a land line in addition to my cell phone is simple: According to a recent Swedish study, if you spend X number of years using your cell phone for at least an hour a day your risk of developing a brain tumor is 240% higher than a person who never uses one. Buyer (and user) Beware.

[ApolloniaCreed]

02:49 PM on 07/14/2008

Use a hands free device....

[bosshogg]

01:19 PM on 07/14/2008

new Michigan poll got obama up now by 8 http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election

[surfcitysteven]

12:49 PM on 07/14/2008

Can somebody explain to me what a "land line" is? A line in the land? What?

[lattedrinker]

01:27 PM on 07/14/2008

It's a phone that is connected to a live phone line, otherwise known as a telephone; hence "Land-Line". The majority of people in the US have them in their house, you also use them at work.

[TheSecularist]

03:17 PM on 07/14/2008

a land line is the good old fashioned kind of telephone with jacks in the wall that connect to telephone poles.

[ejay579]

12:24 PM on 07/14/2008

Doesn't this cut two ways? If you can't be reached to be polled, how are you being reached for the dissemination of information such as voter registration or donation drives?

[FACINGREALIT]

12:27 PM on 07/14/2008

This crowd usually receives their information via the Internet - either at home or work. Which is why Obama has exploded via the Internet with dissimenation of information and in collected donations.

[musselmanm]

12:42 PM on 07/14/2008

When we go out and register voters, their information is on the ballot as far as address and party affiliation. We also ask them if they would like to participate in Senator Obamas' campaign if they are Democrats. They quite often are willing to join up and provide a contact number.
Boy, you Republicans don't seem to get it all this time round!

[ejay579]

12:52 PM on 07/14/2008

Knuckehead, what about my inquiry makes you think I am a Repuke?

[FACINGREALIT]

12:15 PM on 07/14/2008

And there is another 'hidden' electorate that is not being polled - those landline owners who are blocked from any and all telemarketing calls. In Texas we can pay a couple of dollars to have our numbers on a 'NO-CALL' listing which prohibits these types of calls or the offending party can be fined. Believe it or not that is a VAST market of unpolled callers as well as I've opted out for years.

[NickNas]

12:56 PM on 07/14/2008

HEY FACINGREALIT

The National no-call registry is FREE! Somebody in TX is getting over.

[StrayTalk]

01:57 PM on 07/14/2008

Political and charity calls are usually exempt from DoNotCall lists. As well as orgs. that are not asking for money (like polling) Texas probably has the same rules.

[Zhonni]

12:10 PM on 07/14/2008

Tell this to Chris Mattews and his cynical self. He thinks that the Bradley effect is a science and has totally ignored the poll averages and the actual vote percentages in the primary.

They all talk about New Hampshire but leave out the rest of the states where Obama out performs. McCain and his camp should be afraid of any state with Obama within 2 or 3 points of them because Obama will win.

[ApolloniaCreed]

02:53 PM on 07/14/2008

A lot of us wonder when Chris Matthews became Archy Bunker... He is really stuck on this "working class catholic" thing now... *shrugs*. I just stopped watching.