McCain's Ad Buy Is A Big-Time Bust

Back in June, John McCain fought back against the Democrats' "50-State Strategy" by launching an eleven state strategy of his own, sinking $16 million worth of ads into Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Those ads carried the same message that McCain's former commanders used to shout at the entire Navy every time the Senator boarded a plane: "Don't hope for a brighter future!" And, as you might expect, people hated the message, and cried.

The results of the investment are graphed by Mark Nickolas at Political Base. In nine of the states targeted, McCain's support in the polls fell precipitously. In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, slight leads or dead heats became Obama leads. In Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Mexico, small Obama leads grew to blowouts. And in Missouri, a large McCain lead has dwindled to a statistical tie.

Exacerbating the problem is the fact that Obama only spent $5 million on advertising in June. The only state where McCain gained traction was Nevada, where no one hopes for a brighter future, preferring instead to hope that desperate, debt-ridden subprime mortgage holders risk their life savings at keno.

Comments

[Egalitare]

All we need is a statistical draw until after the Conventions. Then we pound the GOP into the turf with the heavy duty ground game while the MSM pays too much attention to the ad wars.

We will have the advantage in "ground troops" this time

[Old Hippy]

WHAT IF??
Just for the hell of it, assume that supporters of Ron Paul were so well organized the it took 5-6
ballots and the Republican Natl Convention, and Ron Paul came away with the nomination.
BTW: What the hell is Ron Paul doing in the Republican Party??

[Krikkit]

Well, where else is he going to be? Yeah, he's so conservative he's almost a Libertarian, but still, it's along the same continuum. If the Libertarian party was more viable as a political alternative, he might be there.

I think it would be fascinating if the Libertarians split the conservative vote with the Republicans this year. If they did well enough, that might spell the doom of the Greedy Old Perverts party. I'd LOVE to see real conservatives invent a new party that excludes radical neocons and radical evangelicals.

[Old Hippy]

Krikkit,
Just suppose Ron Paul split the Repugs, and the Convention in St, Paul turned in a
"Chicago 1968" In that I was in Chicago 1968. One can only hope.

[Godfearing]

John McCain's agenda: http://mccainsource.com/corruption?id=0022

State of the economy: http://mwhodges.home.att.net/

How we waste $8.9 billion from a $416 billion Defense Appropriation Bill:
Google: Don't Mind If I Do! washingtonpost.comm)

[JJeff88]

Those state polls can turn around and bite a chunk out of your ankle in a NYC minute.

Check out Ohio. On 7/20, a PPP (Democratic sponsored) poll showed Obama up by +8. But a Rassmussen poll taken a day later (7/21) gave McCain a 10-point lead.

There are a lot of possible reasons for this apparent contradiction.

One I like more and more is that - because a higher composition of McCain's supporters are said to be "less enthusiastic" than Obama's, any poll which doesn't award "leaners" to each candidate will favor Obama because a higher percentage of McCain's supporters will be lumped in with Undecideds.

And vice versa - if leaners are awarded each candidate, McCain's numbers look better.

My point: In most cases, polling this early in the process doesn't mean much other than to raise a few red flags and possibly suggest trends.

[Ceasar]

Your point is exactly why polls are important! Raising red flags and suggesting trends is the objective of early polls! Poll analyzers don't just look at each one seperately, they follow the trend lines.

[kinnycut]

Once again, most of these polls are based on results from people who have voted in past elections, so a tie now could be a blow out for one or another candidate on election day. Since a lot of new voters have been registered and the inspiration or excitement for that is credited more with Obama, the benefit of the doubt favors him. These polls are not accurate because they are estimating their results on potential turnout based on previous elections. If the turnout is larger than it was for Clinton, all these polls leading right to election will be wrong. Everybody in the news is trying to convince their audience this is going to be a nail bitter election, but in truth if it is Obama it will be over early. Obama's wild card is turnout. If it is huge, it will be Obama.

[Krikkit]

In Ohio, where you conduct the poll makes all the difference. The southern part of the state is extremely bigoted and aligned with the old South. The northern part has always (and I do mean always) been more progressive.

[cariintexas]

when does Rasmussen have time to poll. I've heard theres a Rasmussen on lil Sean Hannity all the time.

[loax]

Maybe if the used honest ads showing what he stood for...instead they only make ads of fear mongering and hatred.

[Krikkit]

But, that IS what he stands for!

[rontun]

I'm telling you, McCain doesn't stand a chance. Here in New Hampshire we're pummeling him on a daily basis, pointing out his "misstatements", his lies, his reprehensible policies, and of course, his love affair with the Bushes. Here in Laconia, a small city located in what has traditionally been a Republican stronghold, the Democratic Party is growing while the Republican Party is in retreat. Our local party website http://www.laconiademocrats.org is rapidly becoming the source for news and information, even among local Republicans. It's great to finally be winning!

[Krikkit]

The GOP has already thrown McWhatever under the bus. He's the sacrifice in a no-win year.

[abigail1]

his most recent ad with "you're just too good to be true" is going to have the same effect. I really don't understand how they think that the argument that it is better to know that things will stay crappy and vote for McSame than risk disappointment and believe in and vote for Obama is going to get them anywhere.

[johjac]

"Don't hope for a brighter future." What could they have possibly been thinking? It makes no sense for anyone to say something so... pointless. And to spend good money to say it is even more... pointless.

[momof3inGA]

I was curious about the results of the ad buy -- thanks for the article!

[BaltimoreSteve]

Obama probably will be able to redirect money to down ballot races if McCain's ad buys can't overcome his own foot in mouth syndrome. Obama makes news wherever he goes, and doesn't need to buy ads to get that visual out to the public.

[LAB10]

McBush is just a big old bust himself! He's looking and sounding worse and worse every day. Literally and figuratively! The old man simply is not well. He's starting to whine too much. Big old baby!

[racom]

Here is the message for Obama supporters:
The results of the investment are graphed by Mark Nickolas at Political Base. In nine of the states targeted, McCain's support in the polls fell precipitously. In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, slight leads or dead heats became Obama leads. In Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Mexico, small Obama leads grew to blowouts. And in Missouri, a large McCain lead has dwindled to a statistical tie.
So if you want Obama to win give more ad money to McCain!

[adnmoh1]

to bad so sad, mcccpain aint getting a dime from me.

[racom]

Read the comment again, it is satire. McCain spent money and his ratings went down. The more he spends the lower he goes, hence, remember satire, the more he gets, the better for Obama.

[neesy08]

How depressing. This must be how you think when you have one foot in the grave

[apingebrig]

I feel sorry for John McCain. It's got to be tough being the anti-hope candidate. Can you imagine being in television ads telling people not to hope or not to dream? No wonder why he's angry all the time.

[CocteausTwin]

Don't feel sorry for him. He makes his own decisions. He has done little to help Americans, Vets, Home Owners, Energy Consumers, etc.

[apingebrig]

I feel sorry for you for not catching on to my sarcasm : )

[theone718]

He should have never ended that add with "don't hope for a better life" that alone isn't something someone wants to hear.