Obama's Post Trip Bounce

Asked yesterday about the political effect of his trip abroad, Barack Obama told the New York Times, "I wouldn't even be surprised if in some polls we saw a little bit of a dip because we've been out of the country for a week." Campaign manager David Plouffe told the Politico he didn't expect a bump either: "We wouldn't expect any sort of -- I guess the term people use is 'bounce' ... "It was an important week, but it was just one week in this campaign."

Commentators agreed, noting that Obama's numbers didn't go up during his trip.

But it seems Obama was wrong. Political Wire sees a post-trip bounce in two polls: Rasmussen and Gallup:

Before the trip:

* Rasmussen: Obama 46%, McCain 46%
* Gallup: Obama 45%, McCain 43%

After the trip:

* Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 43%
* Gallup: Obama 48%, McCain 41%

In its analysis, Gallup says:

Obama's particularly large leads over McCain in Friday and Saturday's tracking suggest that the massive publicity surrounding Obama's speech at the Victory Tower in Berlin on Friday -- the only major public event of the trip -- and coverage of Obama's meetings with the heads of state in France and Germany may have tilted U.S. voter preferences more in his favor.

Comments

[JaneEyrez]

My current dream ad:

Picture a typical angry-looking McCain on one side of the screen with Obama interacting with the troops in Kuwait on the opposite side of the screen.
Voice over says: Wonder what McCain would be talking about in his ads if he wasn't constantly slamming Obama?
(Sound of perfect quiet for a pause.)
Voice over says: It's dishonorable cheap and easy political smear tactics to question the other guy's patriotism, and it's good cover to hide that you have nothing to offer a desperate America in terms of leadership for these troubled times.

[condew]

I posted a comment 12 hours ago, it still hasn't shown up.

[YRM]

Rove has been spinning this bit about being a disinterested observer in the election when he's been orchestrating the race for the last four years. You can follow the chronology here:

http://www.thecityedition.com/Pages/Archive/Summer08/BrazileRoveConnect.html

[closetodemfection]

Oh dear. What a difference a day makes - Mc Cain is now up by 4 national head to head in todays USA/Gallup.

[karmafriend]

mccain and his nasty bs didn't have anything to do with it?

[condew]

I guess Americans appreciate a leader who is respectfully and warmly received overseas.

What a pleasant change from Bush's "Goodbye from the world's biggest polluter."

[DrDemon]

Heeeeez sooOOO sex - e

[Mogamboguru]

Yeah - but married to a wonderful wife. So you better relax... 8-)

[DrDemon]

ok.. I'll hold off on being the "homebreaker" :>)

[Jessegirl]

Wait! By the time you read this, there will be another poll that will factor in "other things". In another hour, there will be another poll that will totally make no sense beacause of the last poll.

[Colingavignet]

who are those guys who change opinions every week?

[BassMent]

I met one at the Verizon store. I was having my cell phone looked at (which has an Obama campaign wallpaper), and the tech asked, "You're a fan of Obama?" (Obviously a rocket scientist, this guy.)

I said, "Absolutely."

He said, "I don't know enough about either of them to know who to vote for."

I told him all about this wonderful thing called the Internet, and how he could bet all kinds of info about Obama from his campaign web site. But what struck me was that here was a twenty-something with a job (one that probably doesn't pay that well) who is at this point utterly disconnected from the presidential race. And I have to believe, given the poll numbers, that there are a whole lot more out there just like him.

My friends and I keep asking each other, "Who in their right mind would vote for McCain?"

The answer is, people who aren't paying attention. And that's possibly even the majority of Americans.

[FiveFortyOne]

Lol ... I wonder the same thing! But I actually know one of them. He has difficulty making decisions, and he's also a bit cynical about politics. The nice thing about them is that you can work on them on a personal level. But I'm scared what they'll do in the polling booth!

[tipiglen6]

One of them is Prime Minister of Great Britain
;-)

[Anonani]

I remain hopeful that the American voter will see through the smoke and mirrors of the McCain campaign, that there is nothing but an attack machine. If Obama spent as much time degrading McCain he would be called a traitor for attacking a war hero.

[JADE2002]

Is it true that pollsters only call people with LANDLINE phones? If it is, no wonder I have not been asked to do a poll.

I wonder what the numbers would look like if they did select a "random" 2,000 people?

[Liberoservative]

One of them is also using mobile phone users now as a base... I forget which one, though.....
sowwies

[EuroPreacher]

Media's fault by not reporting facts and making the election look close than it is:
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/world/no-cliffhanger-more-like-an-obama-landslide/2008/07/27/1217097093304.html

[Actionmac]

you mean like the media did to get the public to believe HRC had a chance to win and not saying how much MONEY they were making for keeping the public ignorant?

[Ozarks]

No he means that the Washington Post squashed a poll that favored Obama.

[robynuva]

Head to head polls. Why don't they add Barr and Nader. They WILL be on the ballot, won't they?

[LillianB]

McC's continuous whining this week might have had an effect too... Winners & whiners are seldom identical.

[PumaAnn]

Oh boy, I may have to actually vote! My state has gone from 24 points in favor of Obama to 10 points.

Goooooooooooooood golly, Miss Molly.

That's a major downward bump.

[Ozarks]

Cite and reference the actual poll PumaAnn , anything else is just hearsay much like McCain's entire campaign

[DrDemon]

A case of fickled residents maybe?

[Actionmac]

a case of STILL 10 POINTS AHEAD! remember how he dropped in NC from 24 down to single digits and ended SMASHING her by 14 points. Don't get to happy yet.

[Actionmac]

a case of STILL 10 POINTS AHEAD! remember how he dropped in NC from 24 down to single digits and ended SMASHING HRC by 14 points. Don't get to happy yet.