The Oprah Effect: One Million Votes, Study Says

How much did Oprah Winfrey's endorsement help Barack Obama? Quite a lot, a new study concludes. Economists at the University of Maryland find that Oprah's endorsement brought Obama 1,015,559 votes. The researchers linked subscriptions to Oprah's magazine and participation in her book club to increased voter participation.

The study concludes:

The results of this study suggest that Oprah Winfrey's endorsement of Barack Obama during the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary had statistically and politically significant effects on Obama's political outcomes. Winfrey's involvement increased the share of the vote and the campaign contributions received by Obama, as well as the overall level of voter participation.

The whole study can be read here.

Comments

[toocoldout]

02:23 PM on 08/10/2008

Hey Blueskybigstar, I always thought Oprah deserved Nobel Prize. If you read the book FREAKS TALK BACK by Yale sociologist Joshua Gamson, it was the tabloid talk shows pioneered by Donahue, but turned into a giant industry by Oprah that did more to make gays mainstream & socially acceptable than any other development of the 20th century. That's why Ellen had Oprah play the therapist on her coming out show. Once Springer & other imitators over saturated and sensationalized the market, Oprah reinvented herself, started her book club which did more to make literature accessible to the masses than anyone since the inventor of the printing press. Meanwhile Oprah's focus on secular inclusive spirituality has done more to liberate us from the dogma of intolerant organized religion than anything else. And if all that's not Nobel prize worthy, she overcame racism, sexism, illegitimacy, weightism, poverty, teen pregnancy, sexual abuse, drugs, & a thyroid problem to become the most philanthropic performer in the history of show business. Business Week reported that as of 2006 she had already given over $300 million of her own hard earned money to charity, and that's not counting the tens of millions more she raised through her Angel Network or through corporate sponsored giveaways.

[blueskybigstar]

10:49 PM on 08/09/2008

If Obama becomes president, Oprah deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. That is how bad things have gotten under this political crime family, mafia-like Republicans. Obama wouldn't have had a snow ball's chance without her. The country needed an Obama and she went and found him. All hail the queen for she is the king maker.

[StillIRise]

05:05 PM on 08/09/2008

After reading some of the posts that suggest that Oprah's endorsement of Obama was an appeal to the black community: Oprah's greater audience is suburban white women, not black women or black men. Her very public ringing endorsement of Senator Obama was not to draw the black vote, but to draw the white vote, the vote of the women who have been the very foundation of her rise to fame and wealth. Most black women, including myself, respect and admire Oprah for her contributions and her ascendency to the celebrity-hood she now enjoys. But few black women hold the allegiance to Oprah that their white counterparts do. I support Senator Obama; I was happy to see Oprah support him; but I can't even remember the last time I watched her show or read one of her books. Black Americans support Senator Obama for the same reasons most other Americans support him. He is, without any doubt, the better candidate, as he was in the primary and as he continues to be in the general. While some blacks may have been swayed by Oprah's endorsement, she had very little, if any, impact on the overall support for Senator Obama in the black community, certainly no more than she had in any other community, perhaps with the exception of the white women who hold her in such high esteem.

[toocoldout]

06:33 PM on 08/09/2008

He wouldn't have won the black vote had Oprah not intervened. He's half white and lacks slave blood & was up against wife of the so-called first black president. The former president was wildly popular in the black community and worshiped like a God. Blacks were thrilled to have a white president indulge in their culture, but to other blacks, the black community is like crabs in a barrel, always dragging successful blacks down. At least they were that way until Oprah set a historical example of black unity.

Whites watch Oprah, but her most loyal fans are blacks. Among older black women Oprah's like Jesus. Oprah gets her highest ratings in black Macon Georgia. When Oprah was on trial in Texas it was black women who showed up at the court house to support her. The only problem black men ever had with Oprah was that she didn't do enough to promote black men. Well that flew out the window when she campaigned for a black man who was way behind in the polls (until she jumped in). When black men saw that even Oprah was supporting a black man, then shame on them for not supporting him too, and they also got in board in record numbers.

The black community is like a family, and Oprah's the overachieving big sister who everyone looks up to. When she decided a black man was capable of being president, the entire black community got the message in record time.

[blueskybigstar]

10:52 PM on 08/09/2008

Oprah did not bring the black community. Oprah brought Obama and let the world see how he does shine. Hillary and Bill drove the black community in herds away from them and into Obama's camp. Oprah is much bigger than the black community.

[Ramirez]

04:16 PM on 08/09/2008

Oprah will be a key figure in 0bama's fight to win the critical African-American vote away from Mc Cain.

[StillIRise]

04:41 PM on 08/09/2008

Oprah has absolutely no bearing on the African American vote, especially when it comes to choosing between Obama and McCain.

[toocoldout]

06:57 PM on 08/09/2008

Pew research begs to differ. Oprah single handedly increased his visibility in the black community by leaps and bounds. Immediately after her media frenzy his name recognition in the black community sky rocketed to stratospheric levels and everyone identified him as the guy Oprah endorsed.

Black women had their heart set on the former first lady, until Oprah rolled into town and created the biggest political sea change in recent history. In South Carolina Oprah gave him his biggest crowd of 2007 where she delivered what Howard Fineman called perhaps the best campaign speech he had ever witnessed , and even more astounding, the crowd was almost 100% black.

I'm not suggesting Oprah only influenced black voters. She won white women in Iowa, and made huge inroads with older and less educated voters. But never underestimate the importance of this historical display of black unity, the likes of which America has never seen.

[SLal]

01:20 PM on 08/09/2008

I personally find it odd (and a bit dangerous) is that one celebrity (in this case Oprah) should have such an impact on voting patterns. What I find more interesting, though, is her impact on the candidate, Obama, himself. Her profound impact is written about here:
http://tinyurl.com/the-secret-behind-barack-obama

[coloradosiren]

04:03 PM on 08/09/2008

Nothing odd, nothing dangerous
one person, one vote
politics is all about influence

[schicklett3]

12:30 PM on 08/09/2008

Thank you Oprah!!!
I hope she will continue to speak on his behalf.

[Bobrobert]

08:29 AM on 08/09/2008

How many votes did he lose from folks that cannot stand her???

Maybe they canceled each other out.

Maybe not.

Remember to vote all.

:-)

Pray for all the troops.

[macbabe]

02:59 PM on 08/09/2008

so you're saying all the people that hate a certain celebrities like Tom Hanks and hundreds of of others will cancel their vote if they are for Obama... that's taking "Pride of Your Own Ignorance".

[ShamusNYC]

12:47 AM on 08/09/2008

Hoping that Oprah can make a difference in some of the battle grounds... she's on hiatus until Sept.

Will she have John-boy on? Hopefully not - he'll have to stick to Leno or self-mocking appearances on SNL.

[Mort]

11:57 PM on 08/08/2008

"Oprah showed blacks that they have as much right to the white house as any other race"

How? Is she running for office? She, like many other celebrities, endorsed Obama. HE is the one running for office. HE is the one showing people of ALL races that this is possible. HE is the one with standards, morals and conviction. HE is the one who lifts and inspires when he speaks. HE is the one standing up against the lobbies. HE is the one who acts honorably when his opponents constantly lie and sling feces. HE's the role model here, not Oprah.

[soljifire]

07:28 PM on 08/08/2008

general election we should win if people thnking right we should put all the gop out of the house and everthing lol that should make us love bush and dick i guss lol wach out for dick gun

[malanb5]

07:09 PM on 08/08/2008

Good, I only wish that Oprah could help swing the general election as well.

[Mort]

04:25 PM on 08/08/2008

What a slam to the American people. The Pied Piper of Chicago controls the votes of a million people simply because it's her that tells them to. It couldn't have anything to do with them liking Obama, or seeing that he's obviously the better choice? It says they used her magazine subscriptions and book club to determine this. I didn't know that was an accurate way to poll voters. Did they actually ASK ANYONE if they picked Obama purely because Oprah said so? This just smacks of one of her many self-promoting stunts.

[toocoldout]

04:54 PM on 08/08/2008

Actually the study is very logical. They noted a very clear correlation between how many votes he got, and how many followers Oprah has in that geographic region (as objectively measured by magazine subscriptions etc) and the correlation only appeared AFTER she endorsed him. The correlation is especially interesting because prior to her involvemnt, the only demographics he was popular with were PhDs and college kids. Oprah delivered the black vote, and cut in to the former first lady's huge lead among women and uneducated voters. The reason Oprah was so decisive is that is A) in a race between the first black and first woman, the black female vote was key, and B) Oprah's the one woman statistically tied with the former first lady as the most admired woman in America.

[bluestatelib]

05:26 PM on 08/08/2008

So many stupid claims in one post. Congratulations. Oprah "delivered" the black vote? Please. I assure you that regardless of Oprah or Bill Clinton's racial antics, Obama would have had the "black vote" as soon as the black community learned enough about him and his progressive agenda (i.e. he's no Clarence Thomas). The only demographics Obama was popular with were "PhDs and college kids"? Give me a break. If this was so, Obama would never have gotten out of single digits in the national polls. He was in double digits long before Oprah came out to support him. Facts do matter.

This "study" violates one of the fundamental rules of social science: correlation does not equal causation.

[mikeb302000]

01:33 PM on 08/09/2008

I'm with you Mort. "I’m thinking that many of those one million voters won’t be voting for one of the candidates as much as for Oprah."
http://mikeb302000.wordpress.com/2008/08/09/oprahs-endorsement-worth-1000000-votes/

[iranter]

04:22 PM on 08/08/2008

is she still a "free woman?"

[bluestatelib]

05:20 PM on 08/08/2008

Yes

[markj757]

04:02 PM on 08/08/2008

I know this is off thread but I'm going to say it anyway. Just because a candidate is willing to use race to gain some votes, doesn't make him a racist. It makes me sick when I hear people like Bill Clinton say that Barack's campaign tried to paint him as a racist. Almost no one, especially folks in the black community, think Bill Clinton is a racist. We were just extremely disappointed that of all people, Bill Clinton would use subtle code words and tactics that exploit the race factor when it began to look like his wife might not win the nomination. I was one of his biggest supporters before and after his Presidency. I loved Bill Clinton, but their was a line I thought he would never cross, and he crossed it. It doesn't make him a racist, just makes him someone who wanted his wife to win desperately, that he would betray the very community that embraced him as one of their own.

[PumaAnn]

06:21 PM on 08/08/2008

I'm glad to read your post. I think Bill is anything but a racist. I personally think that he was giving O a backhanded complimented in SC when he tried to minimize his win. I know. I must be the only person in the country to see it that way. I do, though. Politicians always minimize the other guy's win. I thought that was precisely what was happening. I thought it was a terrible shame to see how the "fairytale" adjective to describe O's speech was expanded by Clyburn. Clyburn really, really burnt his bridges with that nonsense.

But anyway, I'm glad to see you don't view Bill as racist. If he's a racist, then the rest of white America should just go hang ourselves!

[ShamusNYC]

12:35 AM on 08/09/2008

You're not the only one.

I'm a minority, support Obama but would gladly have voted for Senator Clinton if she was the nominee, and I think that the real fairy tale is that of President Clinton being a racist. It was really unfair to the guy, but I don't put all the blame on Clyburn - there are elements of the media that love to make stories out of nothing & some of them also still have an axe to grind.

History will make the needed adjustments and he will be remembered for his tremendous accomplishments - in & out of office.

[markj757]

03:45 PM on 08/08/2008

I have to say this because I don't think most people realize that the most dramatic effect she had on Barack's campaign was with African-Amercans. Her extremely strong support of him validated for many in the African American community that he was the real deal and he just might have a chance to win this thing. That on the heels of the Iowa win of course. Keep in mind, this was during the time when many whites and people in the media were asking was he black enough. His support in the African American community, especially the critical state of South Carolina (where she participated in a big rally for him) really began to solidify as she campaigned for him. I know she wasn't the only reason, but she was a very important part of the equation because Barack was very unknown to the African-American community. There were many African American women especially who were very pro Hillary who considered Oprah's ringing endorsement of Obama, and I think it definitely changed their perspective about Barack, and helped them warm up to him much more quickly.

[Guy451]

04:08 PM on 08/08/2008

While I can't argue with your reasoning, I can say it really only affected the primaries in which it was Clinton vs Obama. In the General Election vs McCain, Obama has only gained a 1% lead in the African American vote over Kerry four years ago. So, he may have won the Primary based on color in some states, obviously not including his wins in the north west, but his color has little positive gain in the General Election.

[PumaAnn]

06:26 PM on 08/08/2008

Interesting statistic there. Is that due to population decreases? Lack of registrated voters?

I saw in Texas where shrinking populations did play a role.

[toocoldout]

04:08 PM on 08/08/2008

Oh I so agree with you. Oprah inspired a sense of black unity that this country hasn't seen the civil rights movement. Oprah made it okay for a black woman to support a black man. While other black leaders were getting jealous of him, calling him a sell out and dragging him down like crabs in a barrel, Oprah set an example, for the first time in U.S. history, of two ultra powerful black forces uniting for real change at the highest levels. And as the most successful African American of all time, when Oprah said it was possible, black people listened. And when she convinced even white women in Iowa to support him, the whole thing took off.

[iranter]

04:22 PM on 08/08/2008

i guess the clinton's weren't really her friends.