Cable Ad Recession Coming: Analyst

The ad recession that's devastated newspapers and now, local tv, has yet to hit cable TV. But that's about to change, according to research firm SNL Kagan.

Kagan says cable TV advertising will have grown 10.7% by the end of 2008, a very healthy increase in a down year. Next year, however, the bottom drops out: ad revenues will grow a mere 4.7%.

Kagan doesn't offer much explanation for the drop, besides the obvious. A spokesperson tells us the prediction is based on a weakening economy in the second half of 2008, which will last at least through the cable upfront sales period next June. We assume the dropoff is in large part based on the void left by the Olympic and political ads running this year. But that doesn't explain why Kagan predicts the market will bounce back to a more typical 11.1% pace in 2010.

Read the whole story here.

Comments

[haleywins]

All those channels with nothing to sell.

[Mustang Sally]

TiVo or other DVR is the only way to watch TV - you zoom past those nasty commercials in a few seconds.

[Imzadi]

My TIVO broke down the other day and I had to watch TV real time. Did you know that they don't air cigarette commercials on TV anymore?? And what's with the two people in the twin tubs???? ;-)

[JScott]

So....does this mean less commercials? Not from what I've seen. I can still click thru all my basic cable channels (80 or so) back to the channel I was on during the commercial breaks and get back just in time for the program to start again.

[noamjunior]

advertisers best bet is Fox news, because their viewers have proven themselves gullible enough to buy anything

[TN]

Yeah but they are uneducated people that make less money so they can't buy squat. Best to put their money on Olberman, I just upped my cable package 12 bucks a month just to get his show.

[Blutus]

In Alaska in the '60s we had two channels.
The news film had to be flown in and was two days late.
They only broadcast part of the day.
And we loved it.

It is almost impossible to watch cable anymore. The commercials are simply out of control
and take more and more time away from shows.
Add that to the fact that commericials are often synchronized and the idea of spending $50
or more a month for the privilege of being bombarded by this crap suddenly makes no sense.

It ALL stinks!!!!!! Rediscover the joys of reading and music and turn off the BOOB TUBE!

In just a few years, it will seem quaint to even have a TV set.

It's on the way out. THANK GOD!

[alguien]

back then commercial breaks were no more than a minute long and there were only about 2 or 3 per show.

[Skepticat]

Advertising revenue was always based on the illusion that scads of gullible people enthralled by commercials would rush out to buy products and enrich everybody. I grew up with 4 channels then 12 with cable - now you can get over 200 channels with nothing on - so less people are looking at any particular thing at any time. If these same people have even less money to spend -eventually most
won't spend either regardless of advertising.

[jinjinpinti]

Say it ain't so! Just when we are actually grateful for all the commercial interruptions into the lying lies of the talking heads, et al, you mean they might get even more time to bloviate, obscure, and generally misintepret the "neeeeews" with an ad recession?

[kellygrrrl]

lol