Energy Prices: Would Russia Target Ukraine Next?

The Russia-Georgia crisis spooked energy markets, helping to send oil above $120 again. The next target on Russia's newfound "Near Abroad" expansion list is likely Ukraine. A move on Ukraine would have a far more profound impact on energy prices.

Why would Russia target Ukraine? Since the rule of Peter the Great, Russian foreign policy has been predicated on two fundamental aims: capturing warm-water ports, and securing Russia's "Near Abroad" as a buffer zone against Western European powers. Ukraine satisfies both of these goals.

The Russian Black Sea Fleet is based at a port in Sevastopol, which Russia leases from the Ukrainian government. Ukraine's capital Kiev is under 500 miles from Moscow, which would be too close for comfort for the Kremlin if a radically pro-Western regime were to take root.

Ukraine is important to Moscow for another reason. 85% of Europe's gas supply is transported via pipeline through Ukraine. Maintaining some control over this distribution network provides Moscow with leverage over Europe. Thus, Russia is unwilling to accept a Ukraine under control of the West.

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Read more about energy prices:

::Is The Georgia Conflict All About Energy Imperialism?
::TIME Blames Speculators For Oil Prices

Comments

[americandusk]

If anyone thinks that the Russian will win this conflict because of a decline in American productivity or ability to produce better look clearly at a comparison of work ethics. A nation like Russia, with its many problems and completely bizarre economy has nothing against the 12 hours a day every day American workday. And that is 12 hours of one person doing one person's job. Unlike China's 10 people doing the work of 1 person for 1/30th the cost.

[vikingv]

Wag the Tail Time. I suspect The Bush White House will push the new Russian Military Confrontation for all it is worth in the comings months. There is nothing like the threat of perpetual war to get the blood flowing for the Republicans.

The show of perceived strength by the Republicans against a belligerent expansionist Russia will serve the purposes of the election. This is so classic and I have not heard one person call it for what it is.

The White House is obviously instigating the turmoil. The Russians have captured all the Humvee s and anti-aircraft missiles Bush gave Georgia to attach Russia with. Bush is attempting to install missile launch bases next to Russia, in Poland, which Russia promises to destroy and which might prompt war talk or outright war.

All of this is known. But Bush is a master of manipulating the Press sound bites and the American Public. Here we go again. The Republicans are strong on Defense. The Republicans will always pick a fight until they are thoroughly thrashed. So let us thrash them and trash them, without mercy, until there is capitulation, and Democracy reigns again.

[Bobleblah1]

No one should doubt that Russia is very serious about fighting the encirclement that has occurred by NATO forces. This entire situation is not a game and is most certainly requiring of Front page status.
The Russian will wage war over NATO's attempt at subverting their sphere of influence. The Ukrainians would be very wise not to get themselves into some sort of proxy war with Russia at this time.
The Russian will batter them senseless retake control over vital territory and very likely use nuclear weapons. This attitude of trying to call the Russians bluff is a stupid strategy, because it ignores the realities of the world and the future.

[MagisterLudi]

Ukraine is a cradle of Russian civilization. But this present piolicy of antagonism against Russia is highly counterproductive. To preserve peace with Russia Ukraine has to: 1. Give Russia 99- year Sevastopol naval base lease. 2. Recognize Crimean minority rights.3. Cease the usual "Moskal' racist propaganda. 4. Declare Russian and Ukrainian two official languages of the state.

[MagisterLudi]

Not all of the Ukrainian government is anti-Russian. Yulia Tymoshenko, a powerful pol. did the smart thing by remaining nutral in Georgian conflict. For that Western-backed Viktor Yushchenko initiated a treason investigation against her!!! For being neutral.... Old Vic is a big Bush supporter. Birds of a feather.....

[AmandaBC]

Another headline from the twilight zone.

Russia DID NOT target any country. Georgia targeted South Ossetia and the Russkies came to the rescue of the latter (93% ethnic Russians.) Unlike American troops in the ME, the Russians were actually greeted as liberators in South Ossetia.

[MagisterLudi]

There are NO ethnic Russians in S.Ossetia. Wrong as usual.
S. Ossetia will join Russia to be united with their N. O. cousins and because of age-long antipathy towards Georgians. This has nothing to do with ethnic Russian issue.

[Tom95134]

Unlikely that Russia would "target" the Ukraine. It;s more likely that they would make moves to enter into a closer exclusive relationship with the Ukraine since a large percentage of grains come from the Ukraine.

[Blutus]

Wow. Another Comment deleted.

Apparently giving people grief about Russia is not allowed this morining!

Sad boys, very sad.

You don't need to fear Russia folks.

[elcojonu]

Blut, join the Army; go fight them.

[MagisterLudi]

Blutus help Georgian freedom fighters and volunteer. Bring your own Pampers, in case Russian Air Force comes around.

[leduck]

russia is not going to target the ukraine

imagine the guerrila war that would start

these are just examples of neocon fantasies

[elcojonu]

They'll just split it, the eastern part is majority Russian anyway.

[quadman]

A correction would be that Russian language is dominant in only two Ukrainian oblasts, Donetsk, Luhansk (the two most eastern, as well as in autonomous Crimea. Ethnic Russians are not a majority in any Ukrainian oblast. In autonomous Crimea (the only area dominantly Russian), the Russian and Ukrainian populations are actually declining while the ethnic Crimean Tatars are increasing due to their return from where they were relocated to under Soviet rule. So, no, the eastern part of Ukraine is not majority Russian, and no Ukraine will not be divided over to Russia.

[MagisterLudi]

These are American fantasies both necon and lib. About every two month or so libs pruriently engage in describing doomsday scenarios about Iran invasion. It's a national pastime.

[MetalCanuck]

Probably not, Russia was defending South Ossetia from Georgia. So they are not the aggressors.

[Chubbster]

Wow, not the aggressors. By the way, up is now down and hot is now cold.

[Blutus]

There you go! Cleared that right up!

Those poor misunderstood Russians!

[BayAreaResident]

>>The Russian Black Sea Fleet is based at a port in Sevastopol, which Russia leases from the Ukrainian government.

Or in other more detailed words: The Russian Black Sea Fleet is based at a port in Sevastopol on the Crimea island, which has been a historic part of Russia (in it's various political forms) since the middle of 1800's, but in the middle 1950's, under the ex Soviet leader Nikita Khruschev (who himself was born and raised in Ukraine) the island has been formally incorporated into the Ukraine proper, the move that allegedly purported to appease the Ukranian nationalistic sentiments in the region. Much like what happened in 1920 when communists led by Joseph Stalin incorporated southern half of Osetia into Georgia, which has subsequently back fired as we all know. One can say that history is a history and one should just move on, however one has to consider the opinion of the ethnically diverse Crimean citizens who largely associate themselves with Russia, both linguistically and culturally, and have been systematically opposing the NATO forces deployment in the region even for the purpose of joint training and exercises which were brokered by the new Ukranian government.

These are some of the points that this news entry had failed to bring to light.

[quadman]

Autonomous Crimea (actually a peninsula, not an island) and Sevastopol seems happy to be a part of Ukraine. However, this area was subject to an ethnic purging in 1944 when the Crimean Tatars were forced out. Many went east to the Asian Soviet republics. Others went to Anatolia. They have been gradually returning to their homelands since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Also, the Russian and Ukrainian populations are actually declining in Crimea, more pronounced amongst the Russian population.

[mamacat]

I imagine all of Russia's former satellite states are concerned about what Putin intends to do next. Nevertheless, there is a big difference between starting a conflict with Georgia, pop. 4.4 million, and the Ukraine, pop. 47 million. Not that Putin won't try to bully them around, but it will be different than swatting Georgian flies.

[BayAreaResident]

>>The Russian Black Sea Fleet is based at a port in Sevastopol, which Russia leases from the Ukrainian government.

Or in other more detailed words: The Russian Black Sea Fleet is based at a port in Sevastopol on the Crimea island, which has been a historic part of Russia (in it's various political forms) since the middle of 1800's, but in the middle 1950's, under the ex Soviet leader Nikita Khruschev (who himself was born and raised in Ukraine) the island has been formally incorporated into the Ukraine proper, the move that allegedly purported to appease the Ukranian nationalistic sentiments in the region. Much like what happened in 1920 when communists led by Joseph Stalin incorporated southern half of Osetia into Georgia, which has subsequently back fired as we all know. One can say that history is a history and one should just move on, however one has to consider the opinion of the ethnically diverse Crimean citizens who largely associate themselves with Russia, both linguistically and culturally, and have been systematically opposing the NATO forces deployment in the region even for the purpose of joint training and exercises which were brokered by the new Ukranian government.

These are some of the points that this news entry had failed to bring to light.

[elcojonu]

We have to stop been so self-righteous and arrogant. We do not own the planet and our point of view is just one of many.
We do not have the answer to every problem nor are we sole owners of the truth.
We must learn to respect and deal honestly with all kinds of people, not just the ones we like.
People nowadays know when they're been treated with honesty and respect or just plain been had; we're not fooling anyone.
We need a major attitude adjustment; no more games and charades.

[Wiredwilly]

This must be driving the Neocons nuts. They were all set to March into Iraq and build the Caspian Sea pipeline & Russia says " NOT ". lol

[elcojonu]

All men,countries, groups and organizations HAVE THEIR LIMITATIONS.
It is a fool he who does not recognize that fact.
You cannot throw your weight around and tell others what to do and how to do it without someone, somewhere, at some point saying no to you, thereby placing you in the position of A. confronting the nay sayer and facing what may come of it, or B. avoiding having to reach the prior position by calmly and cooly recognizing the limits to which you can push a person, group, organization or country.
We have been pushing Russia to the point to which it had to react to protect it's self-interest. We should have anticipated that such a reaction was possible, especially knowing their pride, history and capabilities.
We are not the country we were back in the 50's and 60's when the Cold War started.
Our currency is no longer the standard of the world, we're highly indebted, we've been weakened by 4 wars in the last 40 plus years, none of which we have been able to win. We are not liked and respected by a large numbers our co-inhabitants in this planet. People have lost their fear and respect for us, we are like an aging fighter that is living of his past glories.

continues...........

[leduck]

exactly right