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Denver Voters: Obama Needs To Put Meat On His Bones
It was only a single focus group, but if a message emerged from the 125 minute session with two dozen voters here in Denver -- chosen to participate because they said they were undecided -- it was that Barack Obama needs to put some meat on his bones.
"He has to put some substance behind the charismatic talk," one respondent in his early 40s declared, and many in the group nodded enthusiastically. "I want less oratory; show me what you have done and what you are going to do," another participant member declared.
The focus group was run by Frank Luntz, the Republican pollster, and sponsored by the AARP. There was no emphasis on issues of particular concern to the elderly -- the purpose was rather to probe the views of uncommitted voters in the Denver metropolitan region.
Seventeen of the participants were willing to reveal their 2004 vote. Of them, 12 backed George W. Bush and 5 supported John Kerry.
A little over a quarter of the group, despite their claims of neutrality, voiced opinions suggesting that they are virtually certain to vote for John McCain. A slightly smaller number of the participants appeared to be in Obama's camp.
But nearly half of the group appeared legitimately uncertain, and their comments on the candidates, and on a sampling of McCain and Obama television commercials, offered insight into the hurdles facing each nominee.
Perhaps most striking was the almost unanimous and insistent demand that Obama and McCain be "accountable." This concern stood head and shoulders above calls for "change" or for a nominee who "understands the middle class" or "a candidate promising to resolve the Iraq War."
In many respects, these undecided voters were reminiscent of Ross Perot backers in 1992 and 1996, whose ranks were dominated by men and women who kept their books balanced and felt the government should do the same. By "accountability," the Luntz focus group members indicated that politicians should clearly spell out how they are going to pay for their promised agendas, should admit when policies will inflict some pain, and should avoid making commitments that they know cannot be fulfilled.
"The biggest change of all would be just being accountable, man," one participant said. "It's not about change. Let's see what works, let's see what's accountable," replied another.
Luntz, talking to reporters who watched the session though a one-way mirror, said he was stunned by the depth of insistence on accountability. "This is a golden opportunity for either candidate to cut through the crap" and give voters a bottom-line accounting of his proposed programs' costs and how they will be met, he said.
Luntz contended that a failure to do this would be particularly dangerous for Obama. "If Obama comes across like the beautiful politician who has the words but not the solutions, they are going to [reject] him."
The reaction of the focus group participants to a collection of political ads provided a number of additional insights. The voters were all given electronic hand-held dials to indicate whether the liked or disliked what they saw.
Under prodding by Luntz, the participants divided themselves into two equal groups, one leaning to the Democrats, the other to Republicans. As they signaled their likes and dislikes on the electronic dials, two lines formed on a computerized graph so that it was possible to trace the patterns of each group.
One clear finding emerging from the focus group was that Democrats may be banking too optimistically on the notion that McCain's inability to remember the number of houses he and his wife own will significantly help Obama.
When the focus group was shown an Obama ad citing McCain's lack of knowledge of what he owns, the reaction was not as strong as the reaction to a McCain counter-ad citing the help convicted Chicago developer Tony Rezko provided to Obama in purchasing his own Hyde Park home.
"I really don't care how many houses you have, but it does matter how you got that house," a heavyset man declared.
McCain's ads over and over again beat Obama's in terms of the intensity of favorable reaction in this group, but McCain's high overall average numbers were driven by very positive reactions from 'Republican leaners,' while 'Democratic leaners' were often lukewarm. It was not unusual to have a 35 percentage point difference of opinion regarding the McCain ads -- with, for example, the Democratic leaners hovering at a neutral 50 percent and Republican leaners at 85 percent positive.
Conversely, Obama's ads were generally favorably received, but in a more modest 55 to 65 percent range. What stood out with the Obama ads was that, in contrast to the McCain commercials, there was very little difference between the average responses of Republican and Democratic leaners.
Among the possible interpretations of these patterns is that McCain may be able to pull in wavering voters who lean to the GOP, but he faces a tough time trying to convert undecided Democratic leaners. Conversely, Obama may need to raise the level and intensity of his efforts to win undecided voters, but Republican leaners may be less hostile to him than Democratic leaners are to McCain.
A majority of the voters in the focus group said they intend to watch all or most of the Democratic convention here, and most claim they remain open to being convinced by either candidate.
In actual practice, Obama will have to improve on Kerry's 2004 performance with a net gain of only one or two votes out of every 24 cast to win Colorado, while McCain must prevent the loss of even a tiny number of the votes Bush won in '04 in order to gain this state's nine electoral votes.
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August 25, 2008 08:48 AM