Economists May Not Call It Recession, But Job Stats Say It Is

McClatchy:

The combination of falling home equity, the rising cost of food, health care and housing, tighter credit and eight straight months of job losses -- 84,000 in August alone -- has put the squeeze on middle-class families struggling to stay afloat in a slumping economy.

Although economists haven't yet labeled the economic downturn a recession, every time payrolls have declined this consistently since 1948 the economy has been officially in recession, according to the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington-based liberal think tank.

Read the whole story: McClatchy

Comments

[DFL]

AMERICAN VOTERS FROM 2000 + 2004 ARE REAPING WHAT THEY'VE SOWED

[Bettysdad]

It's only a recession when Republicans have to close their Arby's franchises.

[rollingdivision]

Liberals are hoping for a recession and the sooner the better.

[Chavez08]

FASCISM-YA­YYYYYYYY!!­!!
TRANS-AMS-­YAYYYYYYYY­!!!!

[rwe2late]

Bush administration used statistical lie to hide 3.5% annualized DECLINE in GDP!!!


"In its report, the Commerce Department stunned economy watchers by showing a 3.3% annualized INCREASE in 2nd Quarter GDP 2008. The robust growth apparently wrong-footed those expecting further recessionary signals...

The strong number also bolstered claims by the Bush administration and the McCain campaign that a recession is primarily a psychological phenomenon­...

Without raising an eyebrow on Wall Street or in the press, the GDP deflator, used in the report to downwardly adjust GDP to account for inflation, was shown at just 1.2% annualized­... the lowest deflator in ten years. In other words, to arrive at a 3.3% growth rate, the government assumed that inflation is running at a ten-year low! In contrast, the latest reading on consumer prices (CPI) in the second quarter shows year-on-year inflation running at a 5.6% rate, a seventeen-year high!

You would think that this statistical bombshell would raise the hackles of the press. Think again. Not only did the hawk-eyed media completely miss the story last week, they have totally ignored our subsequent attempts to show them the light ...they did not deem the anomaly sufficiently noteworthy. Having been ignored by reporters, I then tried the opinion pages. Unfortunately the piece that we prepared on the subject was rejected this week by all the leading national newspapers­."

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff090608.html

[Ged2012]

If McCain wins this election, it just affirms that half of America are stupid, but they would never admit that even if they vote merely based on how popular a star Palin is.

Which reminds me-- the GOP were the very same ones attacking Obama as a superstar, likening him to Paris Hilton and Britney. Well guess what: the choice of Palin just affirms that they've envied the Dems for a long time. A double standard, indeed!

[AlteSoldier]

You know what is funny. If Obama / Biden win in Nov look at all of the mess they will be left to clear up. If McCain / Palin win think how much more of a mess things will become.

[Vote For America]

Sarah Palin is the political equivalent of the sports fan whose favorite team is the one who just claimed the title. She is incapable of understanding the plight of a Cubs fan because she's too busy buying Red Sox merchandise. Nobody will take Sarah seriously until she reaches into her closet and pulls out that Cubs jersey...
http://voteforamerica.net/editorials/Comments.aspx?ArticleId=46&ArticleName=Will+the+Real+Sarah+Palin+Please+Stand+Up

[swift goat pet for truth]

People will vote for her. Look at the polls - Palin / McCain up by 10%.

With her, capable does not matter. Issues do not matter.

The sooner you get your head around that, the better for you.
Then I hope you will get up to fight for the cause.

[KillTheMessenger]

In a democracy you get to be ruled by the people you vote for.

:-)

[BOBONDE]

BUSH AND HIS MINIONS IN THE GOP PARTY HAVE ADDED ALMOST $7 TRILLION TO THE NAT. DEBT IN JUST 7 YEARS WHEN IT TOOK 232 YEARS OF OUR PREVIOUS HISTORY TO ACCRUE $3 TRILLION IN DEBT, BUSH / GOP POLICIES GOT THE ECONOMY TO THIS POINT!

[themodernleader]

The significant profit andf growth these past years have been exploited through inflated value of property--­--commeric­al and residential. However, the average person can only afford a house valued at a third of the present price. That means that the value of homes will drop another two thirds. This means that there will be so many corporations and service industries go under that we can only imagine our economy and society in ten years. All I am certain: There will be hell to pay.

[themodernleader]

Olephart. Thank you for the information. You are the best-informed and sharing of the well-informed and sharing on this blog. In my opinion.

[olephart]

For your review:

“eight straight months of job losses -- 84,000 in August alone”

This is only the tip of the iceberg. It was also announced that June and July’s job losses were revised upward by 58,000. The job losses in July were at 100,000. Further, the birth death modeling estimate used in “adjusting” the published numbers have added 1,000,000 jobs to the figures. These “adjustments” have yet to be revised.

Also on a different subject another mathematical analysis:

The traditional Gaussian distribution of people’s abilities yields the familiar bell shaped curve. Statistically half must possess lower abilities while half must possess higher abilities. If these abilities are based on knowledge, cognitive and analytical skills, the Republicans will occupy the lower half of the curve. If they are based on blind obedience, ignorance and denial of reality they will occupy the higher half of the curve. Thus all in all things will tend to even out. Being wrong all of the time would be very difficult for non Republicans to deal with. This is why Republicans are so comfortable at being wrong, they’re blind, ignorant and in denial.

[politicky]

So, maybe those unempoolyed people will have time to vote?
Dem voter registrations surge nation-wide
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Democrats_post_big_gains_in_voter_0906.html

Nationwide, there are about 42 million registered Democrats and about 31 million Republicans, according to statistics compiled by The Associated Press....
The Democrats have posted big gains in many competitive states, including Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Florida...
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iyCjg56QEYy3r8Gz2X09TnpaWOMwD9317JU00

Gonna be a bit harder to steal this election I think.

[ECB]

I think you are correct !

[pbfishtaco]

I hope and pray you are correct!!

[swift goat pet for truth]

Hope the Community Organizers are there to register the voters, AND take them to vote.

[torrrep]

Yeah. And how many of those registered democrats are illegals? And how many of those registered Democrats were registered illegally under ACORN. There is a reason why you outnumber us...and still lose. No matter how many dead people you register, no matter how many illegals you register, no matter how many felons you register, you will lose.

[tea in the harbor]

Keep in mind that these "Unemployment rates" are not actually related to the number of us without jobs, but only to those filing for first time benefits. Completely ignored are those whose benefits have been exausted, and those in industries such as mine, construction, where there has been a decade long rise in the use of "Contract labor," which lets the company off the hook completely and transfers the responsibility for dealing with the problems to the worker. This, in effect, both artificially lowers the unemployment rate and leaves the company to skip off with an additional 17% profit on labor which is built into every contract but never paid.

[charleydan]

The question to ask can we? That is can we avoid a depression over the long term or are we just avoiding it for now and handing to our grandchildren. Such a selfish act if that is the case.

The deficiet is 8% of the GNP. Not counting the war or bank bailout. We now borrow twice a year with number always in the trillion. With only a 4 trillion dollar budget. Means our budget far exceeds our income.

Now for ideas of the two parties. Dems believe spending spurs the economy. That is true. The question is at what point does that get paid back to Russia, Middle East, and China. These are our creditors which are not all that friendly.

Reps believe that the government should get out of the economy business and let the affair be settled in supply and demand. If people have money to spend then the economy booms. If they do not or if the Americans paid more then the house was worth. It will be settled then and there, by people not buying and paying back debt, bankruptcies for wrong judgment. The economy slows down at that moment.

By holding off any slow down in the economy only becomes a bigger bear of recession at a later date. It is never, will it come. It is only when it will come. And this economy has some serious settling to do.

[jinxed]

I have a novel idea. Why are we borrowing money for foreign aid? THAT would be the FIRST budget cut I would make. Let the rest of the world donate to countries that don't need it.

And for God's sake, Saudi Arabia IS NOT our friend! All but one of the 9/11 bombers were Saudi!!! Just because Georgie and Dickie have long time ties to the Saudis does not mean our nation must give them any "foreign aid"!

Get a clue!!!!

[DMcD]

Maybe these 'economists' don't think there's a recession because, "they have a job". To me ( as a self-employed construction manager , out of work for 4 months now and not counted in the stats ) , this is a "depression" ---- it all depends on whether its happening to 'you' or not. In my 42 years in construction , this is by-far the worst I've ever seen --- worse than '81 , worse than '93.

[pbfishtaco]

LaId off in my trade in mid-'05, but hanging in as self-employed and doing fine. Benefits now from spouse. Not making as much as before, but with two incomes we're ok. I'm one of the lucky ones.

I'm not on the unemployment rolls, but still affected. There are MILLIONS more like me; different stories, getting by, getting squeezed. I'm a "whiner".

Let your kids know that they are going to pay for this mess.

IT MAY MOTIVATE THEM TO VOTE.

[torrrep]

Then find another job. I see construction jobs all the time in our newspapers. Maybe you need to find new work or move to where there are jobs.

[swift goat pet for truth]

The government is ALWAYS is the economy business. They set tax rates, effective tax rates, rules of employment, rules for sending jobs overseas, rules for repatriating money, reserve rates, etc, etc. THERE IS NO FREE MARKET, nor was there ever for the last 4000 years.

The question is, what rules do we need.

My take, the economy will not perform well, until the bottom 80% have more disposable income.
No top line growth (sales), no bottom line growth (profits).

[torrrep]

And you plan to give them more disposable income by taxing them heavily for health insurance? And you plan to give them more disposable by raising minimum wage which eliminates jobs and raises inflation? And you plan to give them more disposable income by raising taxes on the rich, who provide jobs and will cut back their work force or move jobs over seas? Your logic astounds me.

[Chavez08]

There are two economies and the MSM only reports on one. The establishment is well aware of what is and has been happening to the poor and working class and they are very happy about it but they also have some cleaning at hand.

What the establishment doesn't like is actually *seeing* the despair. Rudy did a good job of sweeping the thousands of homeless under the rug, invisible to billionaire investors so that the sight of all those scummy homeless people wouldn't spoil their $200 lunches.

Although the right-wing "Think Tanks" have been brainstorming for decades on the issue, disappearing the poor is much harder to do on a national level. The prisons are already too crowded, many aren't fit for military conscription and, disappointing to Bush, Cheney, Phil Gramm, - I'm sure, it's not vogue to exterminate them yet (but reality TV should open that door sooner or later)

[jeffp26]

Considering how this downturn is being caused largely by a severe credit contraction, most economists will not want to call it a recession. If they do, you see, then the chance of a depression has to be given far more credence.

Elect John Bush, who wants to fight wars but not tax anyone to pay for them, and things will definitely get bad enough that the D word gets press.

[jinxed]

And then we, as a nation, will do exactly what we did when we were in this situation the last time, elect a Democrat to clean up the Republicans' mess!

Politics is like driving, to go backward you put it in R and to go forward you put it in D!
(Unknown author at a blog)

[djelimon]

Perhaps, but I think it would be better to do that BEFORE the depression, not after.

[heyjoe]

Tell us something we don't know!!! The Republicans have drove this nation to its knees. BUT, we are getting ready in November to kick their butts out. Obama / Biden '08.

P.S. The new cover of Newsweek has Sarah Palin on the cover with her shotgun slung over her shoulder and it reminds me of Dukkakus in that tank. It is a force. The Republicans are trying too hard to sell us on IMAGES and BIOGRAPHY. WE NEED SOLUTIONS, and we're going to get them with Sen. Obama as President and Joe Biden, Vice President.