Polls have come to dominate the media's horse race coverage of political campaigns. Pundits and reporters constantly use them to tell us who's hot and who's not -- but skip over the fact that plummeting response rates and variables like undecided voters and margins of error often render these polls useless as anything other than lightweight diversions on par with horoscopes and political betting lines. Below you'll find a slew of polling, astrological, and betting information that will hopefully help the polling junkies in the media keep polls in the proper perspective.
We've also updated HuffPollstrology to bring you regular takes from astrologers on the state of the presidential race. And we've included a section that digs deeper into how polls are conducted. And to make sure we're really investigating, we're going to add various blogs and articles that cast a skeptical eye on polling. Read on for lots of HuffPollstrology:
ASTROLOGER PHILIP SEDGWICK LOOKS AT THE CANDIDATES - **NEW POST 10/13**:
The media pants for red meat pending the final Presidential Debate. Citizens on Main Street want facts. The rest of the world wants a cool cucumber who knows how to make economic gardens peacefully grow. About five hours before the debate commences, Mercury, planet of communication, stock market pick-pockets, and lining up facts all in a row, resumes "direct" motion. While Mercury no longer bears the appearance of backing up, the annoying beeping sound ceases and Mercury stands still, preparing to march forward and straighten things out. Such pivot days are big. Announcements held back often sneak out. Declarations reverse current courses - flip flopping as it's called in this arena - and the stutter/stammer syndrome increases. Ignoring the ongoing, sure to get juicier Palin saga, here's the debate forecast.
McCain
As in the last debate, the Moon in Taurus, a methodical Earth sign, generally favors McCain. There's no reason to expect he converts this trend to his benefit, especially since the Moon and Mars stand off in the horoscope of the debate, applying tension to his anger/action planet Mars. The agitation in McCain's face builds immeasurably over the next week to ten days. This debate is only the precursor. Unless McCain conjures economically sound plans to restore the economy that do not support corporate/Wall Street raiders, the torpedoes head straight at his ship and it=s too late for evasive maneuvering given the target angle. With the Saturn-Neptune patterns, pundits can only wonder, does he want to lose? Is this like the recent Boston Legal where Denny Crane wanted to lose his concealed weapon case so he could petition the Supreme Court? Too bad Arizona allows concealed weapons, but given certain cries of election fraud to come with Jupiter-Eris patterns, what will the Supreme Court do if there's a McCain v. Voters of Florida?
Obama
Like McCain, Obama picks up an emotionally evocative edge from the Moon-Mars pattern overhead. Now, he's pissed. With his Mars to Neptune - the masking, framing, and present-it-as-you-will magic maker - his throttle should be even and constant in forcefulness. Likely his demeanor comes off as powerful and solidifies his position as one who cannot be pushed. People will expect him to know where the bottom of the market is, which according to astrological signatures could be today, Halloween or Election Day. He doesn't know, but if he reveals a series of strategies of "what if" economic recovery scenarios, the election will be locked in, and just in time for basketball season - a slam dunk.
HuffPost is delving into the gray area of how polls are conducted. Below is an analysis of how pollsters come up with the numbers through response rates. The definition of a response rate is taken from Arianna's 1998 column "Investigating The Pollsters."
The key to polling's accuracy is the principle of "equal probability of selection." But if larger and larger numbers among those randomly selected refuse to participate, this principle no longer applies.
We asked polling companies to please give us the response and refusal rates for their polls listed below.
Results: McCain 44%, Obama 48%
Method: 1,206 likely voters
"Can you please give us the response and refusal rates for your most recent national poll?": A Zogby representative told us, "22.7 response rate phone, 77.3 refusal rate."
Results: McCain 41%, Obama 52%
Method: 1,100 likely voters polled over three days.
"Can you please give us the response and refusal rates for your most recent national poll?": A Research 2000 representative explained the methodology of the poll, saying that it was a rolling poll with a baseline of 1,100 likely voters, taking approximately 355 to 365 calls per night and throwing out the oldest numbers. "I would say that [we take] one in every eight calls on average," he said, attributing this rate to a combination of callers "telling us to go to hell" and callers not meeting their standard of a "likely voter" through a name recognition test.
Results: McCain 44%, Obama 52%
Method: 2,319 registered voters polled over three days.
"Can you please give us the response and refusal rates for your most recent national poll?": 14% response rate, 26% refusal rate. This is an average rate for this particular series of polls, technically defined as the CASRO rate which is similar to the AAPOR-III response rate (these definitions can be found here).
Results: Obama 50%, McCain 45%
Method: Sample of 3,000 likely voters over three days.
"Can you please give us the response and refusal rates for your most recent national poll?": A representative for Rasmussen told us, "We don't give out that information".
Results: Obama 51%, McCain 43%
Method: Sample of 800 likely voters.
"Will it be possible for us to get the response and refusal rates for your most recent national poll?": After a few calls, a representative for Tarrance told us, "It's not going to be. Write what you need to write, but it's not going to be. We're four weeks out from a campaign and quite frankly this is not anywhere near my priority list. Okay?"
Results: McCain 39%, Obama 53% Method: 699 likely voters polled over four days. "Can you please give us the response and refusal rates for your most recent national poll?": A representative for CBS told us, "As you know, we calculate them according to the AAPOR Standard Definitions for Response Rates, and you have linked to the document in our response. Please continue to do that. Response Rate 1= 10 %, Refusal Rate [1=] 19%." Those definitions can be found in this PDF.
Results: Obama 50%, McCain 45%
Method: Sample of 1200 likely voters.
"Will it be possible for us to get the response and refusal rates for your most recent national poll?": A representative for ARG told us, " For the nationwide survey conducted October 11-13:
Total adults contacted: 4,271
Total adults screened: 2,106*
Total failing screen or dropping out: 906
Total sample size: 1,200
* Some adults screened themselves out prior to the actual screen (e.g., not registered to vote, not planning to vote)."
mccain
At long last you could know where you stand on a financial matter. Though this too might warrant quick action, you may have been playing with this possibility and thus have a few alternatives at the ready. A neighbour could surprise you though. Their relationship news could take a few days to sink in. It's possible also that someone you know quite well will come to a decision that initially seems incomprehensible.
chance of
winning
obama
It might be important to you to make a written gesture: sending a card or signing a document. Another possibility is having a key cut! Transport issues might require attention too: bicycles, tickets, parking etc. Whilst shopping for something quite different, you could spot something that would compliment an outfit exactly. A phone call could reassure you that a needed item is on the way.
chance of
winning
Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 73F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph.
Charlotte, NC
A few clouds early, otherwise mostly sunny. Near record high temperatures. High 86F. Winds light and variable.
A mix of clouds and sun in the morning giving way to a few showers during the afternoon. High 71F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Santa Barbara, CA
Mainly sunny. High near 80F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.
Sources:
General Election Poll: Gallup Daily Tracking
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from Oct. 11-13, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,793 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 2,140 "traditional" likely voters (based on the model taking into account current voting intention and past voting behavior), the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 2,289 more broadly defined likely voters (based on the model taking into account current voting intention only), the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Horoscopes: horoscopes.co.uk
Weather: Weather.com
Betting Lines: Intrade Prediction Markets