Bi-Polar Disorder: Is The Presidential Race Really Tightening?

Occasional blips in the polls during the closing weeks of the campaign have produced intermittent bursts of confidence among backers of John McCain and spurts of panic among Obama loyalists.

Take a gold standard: the rolling average of the nine or so most recent national polls calculated daily by RealClearPolitics. Obama's lead dropped from 8.2 points on October 14th to 5.7 on Tuesday, October 21st. If things continued that way until November 4, Obama's edge would shrink to a statistically meaningless 0.7 percent, and a coin flip could predict the presidency.

For those obsessives who follow daily tracking numbers, the emotional roller coaster can reach breakneck speeds. Over a four day period last week, from Wednesday, October 15, to Saturday, October 18, Rasmussen showed a steady decline in Obama's lead, dropping from 5.5 percent to 5.0 percent to 3.9 percent all the way to 2.7 percent.

For those of you who want to spend the next two weeks experiencing the ups and downs of every percentage point shift, a good list of the tracking polls and links to each of them can be found at the 538.com web site. Despite day-to-day fluctuations, the weight of evidence suggests, however, that Obama's lead is solid and it will be very difficult, if not impossible, for McCain to avoid defeat.

On the afternoon of October 21, one of the nation's most credible public polling organizations, the Pew Research Center released a national survey showing Obama ahead by a prohibitive 14 points, 52-38.

"Barack Obama's lead over John McCain has steadily increased since mid-September, when the race was essentially even. Shortly after the first presidential debate on Sept. 26, Obama moved to a 49% to 42% lead; that margin inched up to 50% to 40% in a poll taken just after the second debate. Currently, Obama enjoys his widest margin yet over McCain among registered voters, at 52% to 38%. When the sample of voters is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 54% to 39%," writes the Center's director, Andy Kohut.

"Obama's gains notwithstanding, a widespread loss of confidence in McCain appears to be the most significant factor in the race at this point, " Kohut continues. "Many more voters express doubts about McCain's judgment than about Obama's: 41% see McCain as 'having poor judgment,' while just 29% say that this trait describes Obama. Fewer voters also view McCain as inspiring than did so in mid-September (37% now, 43% then). By contrast, 71% of voters continue to think of Obama as inspiring."

Later in the day, the Wall Street Journal and NBC News released a poll showing Obama with a 10 point, 52-42, lead.

With voters' increased confidence in his ability to serve as commander in chief, as well as a majority who now believe he would do a good job as president, Barack Obama has opened up his biggest advantage over John McCain in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. [...]

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Obama's current lead is also fueled by his strength among independent voters (topping McCain 49 to 37 percent), suburban voters (53 to 41), Catholics (50 to 44) and white women (49 to 45).

In early September, after the Republican National Convention, McCain was ahead with independents and Catholics, and narrowly trailed Obama among suburban voters.

Tom Mann of the Brookings Institution flatly declares that "McCain does not have a shot absent some cataclysmic event. National and battleground polls continue to show Obama in excellent shape." To back up his argument, Mann emailed the Huffington Post the following chart:

Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California-San Diego, said, "McCain has a shot, but not, I think, without some exogenous shock (October or November surprise). Obama's resource and organizational advantages remain. I haven't notice much slippage yet in the key battleground states, although state level polls are even more erratic than national polls."

Gallup, which uses three different methods to measure the Obama-McCain contest, found as of 10/21 that Obama's lead was either growing or holding firm. In a model defining "likely voters" simply on the basis of their promised intentions, Obama holds a 10-point, 52-42, lead, up from four points, 50-46, on October 17. When likely voters are defined as those who say they are sure to vote and have a strong history of voting in the past, Obama leads 7-point, 51-44, a significant improvement on the 49-47 edge he had as recently as October 17. Obama's lead is largest, 11 points, 52-41, among all registered voters, and that margin has improved from 6 points, 49-43, on October 15.

For those Democrats still worried about the trends at RealClearPolitics (RCP), they can look forward to an upward tick for Obama as soon as Wednesday morning. Then, the site will add the 14-point Pew survey as well as one of the tracking polls now showing a 9 point Obama lead. Those two new polls will replace the two oldest surveys used by RealClearPolitics that had small Obama leads of 6 and 1 point, respectively.

The net effect will be that Obama's average on RCP will, in just a day, shoot up from a 5.7 point lead to an 8.1 point lead. Obama supporters will be able to put away, at least for now, their Rolaids, while McCainiacs will have to double their dosage of Wellbutrin, Paxil and Zoloft.

Comments

[Pete2069]

McCain and the republicans have to make it seem close , so when they again steal the election it would seem on the up and up...
But , no way in hell should we let them steal another election...
Look what would have never happen had the democrats had the b..ls to stop them from stealing the election in 2000...
Tell you one thing I believe Gore is being a pr...k by not doing more for our democrat candidates.... D... if we didn't fight for him.... and he just let Bush and the republicans steal the elections in 2000...

[peterg76]

False advertising! The title says bi-polar disorder, but I don't see anything about McCain's mental health.

[gbkc]

AP poll today: Obama 44, McCain 43

[hyjanks]

Isn't that great? Just further inducement to get sane people to the polls on the 4th. Me thinks AP must be "in the tank" with Obama.

[skippypicasso]

Look at the methodology. They just picked those numbers out of the air. The real numbers from their poll are Obama 47, McCain 37. They won't say how they decided which respondents are 'likely voters.'

[TuffHuffPuff]

Part two to Thomas,

Much as I would like to associate negative stereotypes with the party I would abhor to see in office, when I do wish to throw something at the TV, I limit my comments to those that attack their stupidity and short-sitedness without associating an illness.

I believe you could have left your comparisons to the roller coaster and your palliative treatments to Rolaids. What you have done with your ill informed mention of specific pharmaceuticals is to mislead those with bipolar disorder to thinking these are the correct or only treatments. You are wrong Sir. There is also more to management of the disorder than drugs. Many folks indeed have to make such charts as you have. Perhaps this interest will inform your research.

Thank you for caring enough to take this email/post seriously.

[TuffHuffPuff]

Sorry Thomas,

i addressed you as Ed as I thought that was your first name based on your email.

[TuffHuffPuff]

Part two to Ed,

Much as I would like to associate negative stereotypes with the party I would abhor to see in office, when I do wish to throw something at the TV, I limit my comments to those that attack their stupidity and short-sitedness without associating an illness.

I believe you could have left your comparisons to the roller coaster and your palliative treatments to Rolaids. What you have done with your ill informed mention of specific pharmaceuticals is to mislead those with bipolar disorder to thinking these are the correct or only treatments. You are wrong Sir. There is also more to management of the disorder than drugs. Many folks indeed have to make such charts as you have. Perhaps this interest will inform your research.

Thank you for caring enough to take this email/post seriously.

[TuffHuffPuff]

Ed,
This post will be in two parts since there are word count limits.

I am going to try to be civil so I can get my points across, but I really need you to know how blown away I was by your arrogance and insensitivity. I expect MUCH more from someone in your position.

I will not criticize your area of expertise as it is not mine. And you should have been more careful.

The first thing you show next to your name in this piece is your apparent ignorance to the plight of Americans challenged by bipolar (or any other disorder) by your title choice. I wonder if you would have been so "clever" in your comparison had you a child, sibling, parent, friend, etc. with bipolar disorder. You do an enormous disservice to those who are on the edge of believing they have minimal choices in life, which is absolutely NOT true.

I suggest you do some research on the famous folks who have given so much to their fellow Americans in every area of the humanities who have faced bipolar disorder and then print an apology. America and her history would not be the same without the accomplishments of those who prevailed over these particular challenges.

See part two...

[wildflowermaven]

But none of us (at least I won't) rest easy until the election is over. I can't wait, but don't know what I'll do if McCain somehow pulls this out.

[margardner]

A "MUST SEE" Video for all Republicans and Democrats:

http://www.dailykos.com/

[martinchill]

the link to the gallup polls is interesting to me; the data is qualified by a statement that they questioned 'Likely Voters (expanded) - Based on current voting intentions only', 'Likely Voters (traditional) - Based on current voting intentions and past voting behavior', and 'Nationally Registered Voters'.

do any of those groups include newly registered voters or do each of these consist of previous voter rolls?

[schicklett3]

No matter what the polls read, the main thing is to VOTE!
Vote, and tell your family and friends to vote, make sure all Obama supporters vote.
The polls mean nothing without votes to back them up - and you can be sure that the republicans will vote strongly this year.
Spread the word - VOTE!

[cjgnew]

Absolutely correct! The only behavior that's in your control is your own. After you vote, pray too, just in case that might help. Pray that our fellow Americans will do the right thing by voting for Obama/Biden.

Carlos Jean-Gilles
Saint Louis, MO

[AnnieNigma]

STRAIGHT PARTY VOTING TRAP

Oct 8, a firm called Automated Election Services was found to have miscoded the system in heavily Democratic Santa Fe County, NM, so that straight party voters would not have their presidential votes counted. If your state allows one pull for straight party voting, and mine does (PA), you may lose your presidential vote. In 2004 Alabama straight party votes were caught going Republican. In Wisconsin, straight party votes disappeared altogether. Both DRE and optical scan machine s are vulnerable.
Never choose the straight party vote option because it alerts the computer to your party preference and allows software code to trigger whatever function the programmer has designed.

Do it the old fashioned way. Punch in presidential choice first, then proceed down the list manually.

www.snopes.com/politics/ballot/straightticket.asp

This is important. Please pass on info to all you can. Thanks.

[portchester]

The media must end this national polling, since the election is based a state by state basis. Lets start polling each state. Thank You.

[martinchill]

none of the polls, that i'm aware of, question newly registered voters.

there are millions of newly registered voters. the polls are completely inaccurate, and yet as edsall points out - the networks trumpet them by the quarter-hour like town criers.

[mdk1]

The MSM states that "the race will tighten", the polls are then manipulated to show just such a "tightening" and when the Repubs steal another election on Nov. 4, the MSM can then claim that, "Well Obama was ahead but the race tightened toward the end..." I, for one, will NOT be fooled again!

[abby4ever]

With Obama far ahead in the polls and in b@ttleground states, it's easy to get complacent and even cocky. I've seen some posts today predicting a landslide victory for us. And now this from Zogby:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews1604.html

Even so...we have to remember that sometimes it's the small thing that can turn a lead around and that we never know where that small thing might surface or what the nature of it will be. Sometimes it's complacency or cockiness itself that can lead to a fatal error.

Obama himself issued this warning (among others) last week:

"We are 19 days away from changing this country. Nineteen days away. But for those who are getting a little cocky, I've got two words for you: New Hampshire," said Mr Obama.
"I learned right here, with the help of my great friend and supporter Hillary Clinton, that you cannot let up, you can't pay too much attention to polls. We've got to keep making our case for change. We've got to keep fighting for every single vote. We've got to keep running through the finish line."

Let's just remember that it's never over until it's over and that erring on the side of caution is the wisest way to proceed.

I recommend this editorial from today's Guardian just for those who think we can't possibly lose:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/22/obama-mccain-kerry-clinton

Let's keep our heads, just to be safe!