AP Poll That Shows Tightening Race Is Flawed

AP/AmericaBlog:

A new poll was released earlier today by the Associated Press that seemed to make imply that the race was tightening on a national scale. The Associated Press said:

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

AmericaBlog looked over the methodology, however, and a found that the poll skewed far too heavily in favor of Evangelical Christians. Click here for the complete breakdown:

The problem? In 2004, evangelicals/born-again Christians made up 23% of voters. But that same group makes up 44% of likely voters in AP's poll released today. That's almost double the number - it's totally implausible.

Read the whole story: AP/AmericaBlog

Comments

[DCato]

My understanding is that when all evangelicals are considered they tend to vote more Democrat. It is a sub-group, to be precise white evangelicals, who tend to vote Republican (and get all the media attention). So a poll that over-represents evangelicals might indeed be flawed but would not necessarily be biased against Democrat candidates, unless it was specifically over-representing white evangelicals.

[tuttlemsm]

Check this out:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1023-mccain-on-life.html

[Doofus]

Now there is an AP story which explains 'why polls differ'.

Turns out (they say) it's a 'margin of error' thing; it's not because
they talked to a whole lot of fundamenta­list/evang­elical voters.

'Polls Apart: Why Polls Vary on Presidential Race'

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/washington/AP-Polls-Apart-QA.html

(It includes the following:)

Q: Are the differences among polls this year that unusual?

A: Not wildly, but that doesn't make them less noticeable. There's a big difference between a race that's tied in the AP poll, and Pew's 14-point Obama lead. But because of each poll's margin of error, those differences may be a bit less -- or more -- than meet the eye.

That's because each poll's margin of sampling error should really be applied to the support for each candidate, not the gap between them.

Take the AP poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Obama's 44 percent support is likely between 48 percent and 40 percent. McCain's 43 percent is probably between 47 percent and 39 percent.

When support for candidates is measured in ranges like that, some polls' findings could overlap -- or grow worse.

[DieHardObamaSupporter]

Here's a GREAT way to support Senator Obama while he visits his grandmother.....

PLEASE start posting on at least 3 blogs, per day reminders to VOTE EARLY andABSENTEE VOTE. Refer them to Senator Obama's website for their states guidelines regarding VOTE EARLY/ABSENTEE VOTE in their state. This is one of the best ways we can support Senator Obama THIS WEEK by maintaining his momentum.

If we hit big numbers THIS WEEK it will keep him in the news in a POSITIVE WAY.

http://www.barackobama.com/voters/

Banking EARLY VOTES counters an OCTOBER SURPRISE

Let's knock these EARLY/ABSENTEE VOTES out the park this week.

As the song goes, let's give them something to talk about.

[KNadine]

Of course this is the poll that the Conservative Talk Show Cult Leaders are feeding their followers.

[Myshkin57]

It'll make the shaudenfreude even better when they lose.

[tmo7734]

The problem with the poll's results was that the principals conducting it are very conservative and supporters of the McCain camp. As a result, they skewed the poll sample. For a recognized service as AP to pull this shenanigan is unforgivable.

[cengizfromoc]

When I first heard this poll I was curious, as it goes against virtually all of the polls I have been hearing. Upon hearing their sampling details, it is obviously a biased poll.

I am not sure of the motives behind this poll. Rather than speculate on the motives, I will speculate on the effect. I actually welcome the public perception that the race is tightening a bit, as I feel it will help ensure that Obama voters turn out, as well as show up to vote early. The expansion of early voting is a very good development for Obama.

Also - I find that the betting odds on gambling sites are often more reliable than polls. That might sound crazy to some, but it has served me well as a predictor of election outcomes. The general consensus is that Obama is anywhere from a 6 to 1 to a 7.5 to 1 favorite to win. He is in a very strong position.

The national polls are really not that good of an indicator. You have to look at the electoral map. The key is battleground states. Obama is leading in Ohio and Florida. If he wins just one of those states, it is pretty much over, as it is unlikely that any states that went blue in 2004 will turn red this November.

[ChefDC]

The only thing tightening is McCains and the gop's sphincter muscle.

[samuelberg]

McCains and the gop's share the same sphincter muscle? Must be painful.

[BetterAmerica]

I'm concerned b/c I thought Kerry and Gore would win and then look what happened.

I think this race will be very close. But I just donated to Obama's campaign.

I hope he makes history for all of America.

[Whinger]

In Europe and the UK they have them neck and neck, so much for polls!

[neweraforamerica]

My blog at: http://neweraforamerica.blogspot.com/ has some interesting recent posts about upheaval in the Republican Party. Check them out

[lejman]

bulletin:
RATINGS AND ADVERTISING REVENUES DRIVE MEDIA COVERAGE.
next bulletin:
CLOSE ELECTORAL RACE ENHANCES RATINGS AND REVENUES.
final bulletin:
REFER TO FIVETHIRTY­EIGHT.COM.

[Rapid Ray]

I just saw the second "I am Joe the Plumber" ad and caught something interesting.

A few days ago, the Huffington Post linked a story to a reporter from a religious news organization outside of a Republican rally in Ohio (if I recall correctly) who was being harassed by supporters, most notably one Hispanic man wearing a hard hat and orange safety vest. by far the loudest and most prominent character in the report, which is why I recall him so easily.
(My apologies that I cannot find the link to the original post)

I would like to know two things....

1: Is this guy on the McCain payroll?

2: If he is not on the campaign payroll, can anyone explain that a random person at a political gathering, who was far way from the main crowd confronting a reporter, just happens to be "Joe, the Hispanic Construction Guy" in both the reporter's video AND the latest McCain ad?

Really? What are the odds?

Fair explanation - Joe the Plumber was a fluke, but a much welcomed tactic emerged with his appearance. Rick "Let's Go All In" Davis now fabricates Joe's Hispanic counterpart to entice the Latino vote. "Replace the plumber Obama found by accident and we have no direct association to with a construction worker we can use at will."

Too bad he didn't factor in that someone would notice "Joe the Hispanic Construction Guy" being used for product placement.

[Knowitall]

Mostly true. I don't believe that Joe the Plumber was a fluke. I really believe it was a plant. Just as Palin asking Biden "Can I call you Joe" at the beginning of the debate wasn't a throwaway line. She was setting him up for the "say it ain't so Joe" line later in the debate. Nothing as "advantagous" as the Joe the Plumber "chance meeting", is ever an accident in politics. A lot of planning went into that encounter, mark my words.

[Wumpie]

Obviously they slated the poll on purpose. They want it to look like it's close.

If they don't preface their results with their slant, they are lying. This poll was all over the new last night. That makes the MSM irresponsible. Well, duh. Never mind.

[pshelleyg]

But that's OK. That sort of poll just fires up Obama's supporters more. We don't want to get cocky, but the McCain Campaign is in wonderment at all of the people Obama has out there on the ground.
There's such of flood of volunteers, that McCain seems to think that Obama must be paying them.

[jusion]

What If All the Pundits Are (Gasp!) Wrong?


Last night, I woke up in a sweat. I'd had a very bizarre dream . . .

NOVEMBER 5 -- There was Wilson over Hughes. And, of course, Truman over Dewey. But there's never been a surprise in presidential politics like the one that awaited Americans this morning, who woke up to discover that, somehow, John McCain had been elected president over Barack Obama....




http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/long_national_nightmare.html

[Knowitall]

I wouldn't count on that happening. That AP poll will only energize Obama supporters.