Chuck Todd: If McCain Wins All Toss-Ups He Still Loses

NBC News' final map gives Barack Obama the win:

With two days before Election Day, the final NBC News map shows Obama remaining above the 270 electoral-vote mark, with a 286-157 lead over McCain. Last week, Obama held a 286-163 advantage. Our changes: We moved Montana and North Dakota (which has same-day voter registration) from Lean McCain to Toss-up. In addition, we moved Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Jersey (the latter of which we should have moved a couple of weeks ago) from Lean Obama to Likely Obama. So here's where we stand:

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, WI (227 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: CO, IA, NH, NM, PA, VA (59 votes)
Toss-up: FL, IN, MO, MT, NV, NC, ND, OH (95 votes)
Lean McCain: AZ, GA, NE 02, SD, WV (24 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state), OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (133 votes)

On Meet The Press Sunday morning, Chuck Todd tells Tom Brokaw that even if McCain wins all of those toss-ups, he'll still lose.

Brokaw: And Chuck, what about voter turnout and especially the organization of the two campaigns getting their people to the polls?

Todd: Well, we're seeing a lot of the early voting, a lot of long lines that's made folks question whether Georgia, South Carolina could end up being much closer than people thought because of this surge among voters, particularly African-Americans. And of course we've watched everything that's been happening in Florida and North Carolina this weekend, Tom.

Brokaw: And why would John McCain be spending so much time in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire in the final weekend, Chuck?

Todd: Well, it's a simple math problem that he's got. Heres our columns here. Im going to put all of the current tossup states in McCain's column and watch his number as it grows right up here. If you move all of these states over, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada -- you see the problem he's got. He's still at 252. 18 short. So what does that mean? If he pulls a Pennsylvania over, we see Obama goes done to 265, McCain gets his 273. Then you ask why New Hampshire? Thats the insurance policy. Nevada, a state that Obama right now has that narrow lead in, if that went to him, then McCain would need New Hampshire to get back over his 270. So it is the only path he's got left. They know this and that's why they had to figure out how to put Pennsylvania back in play. We don't know if it really is. We know he's spending a lot of time there and they had to figure out if New Hampshire, a state that's been incredibly kind to McCain's political career in the past, to see if it can resurrect him one more time.

Comments

[exPatPatti]

GOOD!

[genea]

http://www.usvetdsp.com/jan07/mccain_myth.htm

People for McCain should read this and follow all the links - to give a view they may not know about.

[JayKlein]

"Chuck Todd: If McCain Wins All Toss-Ups ..."

Chuck I dont wanna smoke what you are smoking :-) All kidding aside, you know that and I know that, McCain aint winning all the toss-up states. So what would you say if Mr. Tom B. asks the same question?

"Tom, McCain's is toasted and he fully understand that he is not winning this election. He has no money and no ground force. He is simply wasting his time and his supporter's precious time. His campaigning in PA and NH wont do diddly squat for him. He might as well bring Bush and Cheney with him to New York City and campaign there. McCain is erratic and this just proves that...in can we needed further proof."

[BarackDaVote]

Please forward this message to the Mccain campaign because they are in DENIAL.

"Chuck Todd: If McCain Wins All Toss-Ups He Still Loses"..........HA HA HA!

[LemonMeringue]

Please remember to work for the downticket races!

I live in a blood-red state that O is not even trying to get, but I'm getting out the vote because we need to get rid of Sen. Pat Roberts the worst Bush enabler in the Senate.

[JMBrodie]

Rosa Parks sat so that Martin Luther King could walk, and Martin Luther King walked so that Obama could run. Barack Obama is now running so that our children can fly.

A vote 400 years in the making. What's a few hours standing in an election line compared to that?

[Plank]

Check Mate.

[TKFraz]

Saturday in South Carolina at the Elections Commission = 5 hour + wait for me:

YOU CAN DO IT!!!!!!!!!!!

Do NOT get discouraged. Hang tight!!!

Prepare for the longest, amusement park-like wait ever.

Bring:
1. FOLDING lawn/park CHAIR (a must!!!!)
2. Fruit, snacks, water/fluids.
3. Something to read
4. Something to hear (audio book; iPod)
5. Something to do (Game Boy; Knitting; etc.)

***Remember this while standing there: This is your service to our nation. Non military or military, young or old, rich or poor, gay or straight, white, black, latino, asian, native American, able or disabled

--- You do this this for all of us, so thank you in advance!

[LemonMeringue]

I'm visiting polling places and if the lines are long I'll pass out cans of soft drinks and cookies and encouragement to the people standing in line.

In my town there are lots of bands and they tend to turn out to entertain people on April 15th and they'll be out on Tuesday at polling places.

Of course I am starting at the blue end of town to do this :)

[Girl28]

Virginia's results will come in early Tuesday night. If John McCain wins VA, he has a chance. If he loses VA you could almost say stick a fork in him. However, he could still win if he loses VA, but it'll be really hard. Rock the vote, my friends.

[Daw8it]

How come no fellow POW's endorsed John McCain?

http://www.mccainbetrayspows.com/

[LemonMeringue]

Why does John McCain collect disability from the government - he does not need the money - but votes NO to providing benefits for other veterans?

[PT6]

For McCain taxes seem to involve "Joe the Plumber" to bring Reagonomics back into the discussion:

McCain could NOT say "Middle Class" in the debates as it appeared to CHOCK him, so he adopted "Joe the Plumber" as a surrogate for the Middle Class. McCain uses "TRICK MIRRORS" to portray "Joe of Wall Street" who wears a suit and tie and makes $350,000+ net income per year to look like "Joe the Plumber" who earns less than $45,000 net per year and wears a T-Shirt.

McCain knows "Joe of Wall Street" appears "Corrupt" in the minds of Middle Class voters! But McCain thinks "Joe the Plumber" is acceptable to the Middle Class! This lets McCain avoid the apperance of "SERVING the RICH" with TAX CUTS and instead makes it look like he is "Serving the Middle Class."

Obama's approach is honest and serves the Middle and Lower Income Levels.

[roch20]

I can't stand Tom Brokaw, i even stop watching Meet The Press because of him, nowadays i wait until the video is posted on there website and practicaly keep fast fowarding most of the talking by Tom Brokaw... I'm hoping they'd notice a low on ratings and then they will ask Rachel Maddow to step in, i love Rachel...!!!

[smkyle1]

Obama is leading because he built a classic door-to-door retail political machine like a community organizer, from the roots up.

the LA Progressive ran a story listing the seven tactics Obama used:

http://www.laprogressive.com/2008/11/02/how-obama-did-it-what-all-political-parties-and-businesses-must-learn-before-2010/

[lilymarie14]

Jusion is getting a little fun in before the nurses aid comes and wheels him from the computer center back to his shared room for a few meds and some pudding. Sad when they get old and reminisce about Pearl Harbor isn't it?

[TheNoBullExpress]

Does someone supporting an absolute nitwit like McPalin suffer from the same symptoms as the alcoholic?

[All4ME]

Please do not make h4teful, age-ist comments like this. It shows a flagrant bigotry against the elderly, which would not be acceptable against any other group.

I work with elderly people in the type of setting you sneer at, and it is offensive in the extreme that their struggles and history are spoken of in such disparaging terms. They fought and sacrificed for the freedom that you apparently take for granted.

You never know where YOU will end up, lilymarie14.

[JMBrodie]

Well said. We have enough to be positive about without denigrating the other side. This is history we are all watching. One day you will remember where you were when the vote became official.

[Doitzel]

All the more reason to vote third-party. Don't lend any unnecessary credence to an administration that will fail to report on 90% of its promises.

[learnsomething]

If you are going to vote for a third party, you just might a well stay home.