Rove, Nate Silver Maps Predict Obama Blowout

On his website, Republican strategist Karl Rove writes:

The final Rove & Co. electoral map of the 2008 election cycle points to a 338-200 Barack Obama electoral vote victory over John McCain tomorrow, the largest electoral margin since 1996.

All remaining toss-up states have been allocated to the candidate leading in them, with Florida (27 EV) going to Obama, and Indiana (11 EV), Missouri (11 EV), North Carolina (15 EV), and North Dakota (3 EV) going to McCain.

The two candidates are in a dead heat in Missouri and North Carolina, but they go to McCain because the most recent polls conducted over this past weekend show him narrowly ahead. Florida, too, could end up in McCain's column since he's benefited from recent movement in the state

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver agrees that "it looks like a pretty clear Obama win unless there's something really wrong with the polling, which has happened before, let's not forget New Hampshire, but it's more a polling problem than anything McCain can really do at this point to win the election." (Silver also cautions that everyone should ignore the exit polls.)

Read more election predictions here and on the ground reports here.

Comments

[roch20]

01:54 PM on 11/04/2008

Nate Silver looks like a character taken from The Matrix movie, he always "scares" me, in a "good way", LMAO!!

[Shieldmaiden]

01:35 PM on 11/04/2008

Karl Rove needs to GTFO. I don't give a d.am.n. what he thinks. Hopefully Obama cru.shes McCain today.

[Totto]

12:51 PM on 11/04/2008

Just another Rovian attempt at voter suppression. GET OUT AND VOTE! Be a part of history!

[thenvoteObama]

01:51 PM on 11/04/2008

I am really not sure which way to think on this. Yes, he could be trying to get people not to vote.

But lets also remember, this guy is all about him.

Doesn't it help his ego if the Repubs DON'T win?

Doesn't it make him look better in his eyes, thinking to himself, unless you have me running things, you won't win?

[UsofA]

12:38 PM on 11/04/2008

I equate Karl Rove with the Auschwitz prison guards who tried to blend back in with the prison camp population during the liberation by soldiers. They were exposed then. He will be exposed now.

[syn]

12:27 PM on 11/04/2008

i live in one of the very hard core RED states, Utah.(don't hold it against me, it's very a very backwards, but beautiful state). Growing up here, I have never seen a democrate have such a presence. In my neighborhood, there are NO McCain/Palin signs, only Obama/Biden. It's so great to see. And myself, brother, sister, and spouses all voted Democrate for the first time this election! Obama 2008

[UsofA]

01:19 PM on 11/04/2008

I'm here in Utah also and I agree, it's been heartening (and amazing) to see the support for Obama.
Keep in mind folks, this state is, as syn says, a hardcore red state steeped in Mormonism and governed by one of the most regressive legislatures in America. Despite that, Obama won the Democratic primary vote over Clinton in our state and Obama yard signs and bumper stickers have sprouted up everywhere. I'd estimate half the homes on my street have Obama signs. It just goes to show that genuine goodness and intelligence and ethics have a way of cutting across party lines and barriers. It will be those qualities, inherent in Obama, that will help lead this nation from the brink of the abyss.

[AZforOBAMA]

12:18 PM on 11/04/2008

I posted this as a reply, but have to say it again:

I can't believe it! I watch McSame harp in his speeches about hating Obama's idea of "Spreading the wealth around" to his ignorant followers, and they all boo! I can't imagine anyone in those crowds bringing home over $250,000 a year! McSame is basically saying to them, "forget about getting any help from me" and they eat it up! What a bunch of losers...

[LauraNo]

11:51 AM on 11/04/2008

Rove goes away tomorrow! He does not seem to know this country. All he ever knew was how to use the hate-filled class and they are becoming dinosaurs. Having got that off my chest, I'd like to say that Rove says/ does nothing without an ulterior motive. So, he must be calling for a landslide in an effort to get those haters out to the polls. Good luck with that, Karl. Not.

[SENATORCALLENBOWE]

11:09 AM on 11/04/2008

THE CLASS OF THE NEW GENERATION HAS WAITED ALL OUR LIVES 4 THIS UNBREAKABLE MOMENT!

[ilovemycat]

11:07 AM on 11/04/2008

Who cares what Rove thinks!

[katlade]

10:51 AM on 11/04/2008

When will Karl Rove go away.

[Bitsko]

11:31 AM on 11/04/2008

Here's something really depressing: He's only 58!

[pvoz01845]

01:13 PM on 11/04/2008

when they frog march him out of Fox news in handcuffs for contempt of congress. I hope he goes away even if it's just to camp fed for a long time.

[AlexeiJ]

10:47 AM on 11/04/2008

Here's some feel-good Obama to help ease the anxiety about the results tonight:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yf19H_sHMro&fmt=6

[mypenleaks]

10:47 AM on 11/04/2008

See how John McCain set himself up for failure at http://penleaks.blogspot.com/

[LauraNo]

11:56 AM on 11/04/2008

I've read that exit polls over poll the people most excited to talk about their vote. If you had to hold your nose in order to vote, you probably won't stop to talk to the person doing the exit polling. It would be democrats who are excited, so the results might lead to false hope? I think that is the reasoning, anyway.

[BellGirl08]

10:40 AM on 11/04/2008

Two things:

One: I do not trust Rove's intentions or actions at all. He may be saying all this so that people do not vote. They'll think, 'oh well, Obama's going to win anyway, I do not need to stand in this line for 14 hours!" Don't listen to a word Rove says it's BS. His entire life's work has been to ensure a Republican majority in our government. He will stop at nothing to make sure that happens.

Two: Since when are exiting polls flawed? This seems to be a new mantra and it's total BS. Exit polls are crucial and you should pay attention to them. Exit polls are how we knew Rove, Diebold, and their minions pulled a fast one in 2004.

[Housewife]

10:47 AM on 11/04/2008

I have to give it to Nate Silver on credibility here. The guys an analytical polling genius,

[mujer-lg]

11:35 AM on 11/04/2008

A lot of people lie on the exit polls because they don't want to say who they voted for.

[islandmagic]

10:37 AM on 11/04/2008

I just vote for the one in swampscott MA.... I am freaking out some please talk me down.... Can Obama win? is this going to be a up and up race with out BS.. I need a hug for goodness sake and a shink if Obama loses!

[BinKbar]

10:39 AM on 11/04/2008

is this going to be a up and up race with out BS.

No, ACORN has already made sure of that.

[kathy001]

11:00 AM on 11/04/2008

You're so pathetic. That lie has been misproven so thoroughly and yet you pitiful trolls keep dragging it out. Truly pathetic.

[mydogshakespeare]

11:04 AM on 11/04/2008

ACORN mania! LOL! BinKbar... you're NUTS!

[splenda48]

10:46 AM on 11/04/2008

Islandmagic,

xoxoxoxo from Atlanta, GA. We will be okay. You did your part, you went to the polls!

Much Love and Peace,

[BluePrideSMW]

10:32 AM on 11/04/2008

there's a tsunami of legacy for Obama... VOTE!

A 1965 Voting Rights Act national radio spot informing the public about CHANGE... w/ a Motown beat.
http://current.com/items/89434265_obama_2008_things_are_changing