Obama's Mixed Success Reshaping Electorate: In Some States, Fewer Blacks Voted

Did Barack Obama meet his goals to reshape the electorate in key battleground states? Exit polls from 2004 and 2008 suggest the answer was yes in some respects, but no in others.

As the charts below demonstrate, the share of the vote cast by Hispanics rose substantially in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada -- all states carried by President Bush in 2004 that Obama captured in 2008. At the same time, Obama improved on the Democratic share of the vote among Hispanics in all three states, as well as in Florida, another 2004 red state that he captured this week.

Read the whole story here.

Comments

[letsbepeaceful]

This story is somewhat misleading. The number that's missing from this is the actual numbers of people of all flavors who voted in this election. There was a larger turnout across the board. So,even though the number of blacks that voted might be higher, their SHARE might well be less due to non-black voters with even larger numbers. Unless we know the actual numbers (or at least the proportional breakdown of total voters in the 2004 election), there's no fair comparison.

The number of black people in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico is far less, I suspect, than the number of Hispanics, so the increased Latino SHARE of the vote in those states is more easily explained.

[Cinnamonape]

That was going to be my point as well. If other disaffected groups participate the proportions of any ONE of them will be diminished relative to the whole. Also I don't think that Obama's strategy involved turning out Conservative young voters. He was intent on mobilizing large numbers of those who supported him. If the goal was to increase total voter participation in that group his percentages would have been diminished. Sure, he could have gone out and done voter registration at prep schools and evangelical churches...but to what end?

My understanding is that youth voting increased by about 5% within that cohort vs. 2004 (when it increased a whopping 30%). But like this year the relative proportion of youth voters was wiped out due to the overall increases. But Obama received almost a 3:1 voting support from this group. It made up a significant portion of the SHARE of HIS VOTES.

That's really the statistic that is applicable in this case...not the overall proportion...but what proportion of Obamas SHARE vs. McCain (or for historical contrast- Kerry, Gore or Clinton).

[nomobull]

maybe now that they know their vote counts next time they will vote in larger numbers.