Stevens Pollster: Race Is Over, Begich Will Win

Alaska-based GOP pollster David Dittman, who worked for Sen. Ted Stevens during this year's primary race, believes Democratic challenger Mark Begich is all but certain to expand his current razor-thin lead and snatch the seat.

"I don't think Stevens can come back," Dittman said, noting that he thinks the remaining trove of uncounted ballots will help Begich "increase his lead."

Even if Begich's advantage grows, however, Dittman believes it's highly unlikely that Stevens will concede the race until every last ballot is counted. "He's probably waiting in Washington," Dittman said. "I haven't talked to him since the evening of the election, when I called and just told him I was sorry for the way it turned out."

Dittman believes early and absentee ballots, which comprise the approximately 40,000 votes left to count, will likely reflect Begichs' overall advantage so far among those who took advantage of either process. Heavy early voting occurred in the period that directly followed Stevens' conviction on seven felony counts of making false statements on his Senate financial disclosure forms.

But as details of alleged prosecutorial misconduct and strange juror behavior began to leak out, Dittman says his own private polling showed a slight up-tick in regard for Stevens over the last weekend before election day. "I think Alaskans began to wonder that maybe this was a kangaroo court, maybe the Senator was not guilty, and so they came to be much more sympathetic. ... That's why we had outcome on election day. But now we're counting votes cast prior to that."

As for what Stevens will face when he returns after the loss Dittman is predicting, the pollster said, "it's not a case where he'll be in disgrace, in my opinion." Responding to one of the many rumors regarding fallout from the long-time Senator's legal predicament, Dittman said Stevens might not even accept a pardon from President George W. Bush, were one offered.

"I don't even know if he would accept a pardon," Dittman said. "On the one hand, it would be deserved, in the sense that he shouldn't have been [convicted]. But a pardon also has some connotation of guilt. I do feel certain, though, that he is gonna fight [the conviction] and go through the appeals process."

Overall, in Alaska, Dittman predicted that Stevens will remain revered in the state as a man "who did a lot of good."

"In spite of appearances, he doesn't have a dishonest bone in his body." Regarding the $250,000 of renovations on his house provided by a campaign contributor, Dittman said: "In his mind, they weren't gifts. They were things he didn't ask for, didn't want, and didn't expect. But it's hard not to be appreciative. ... If someone gives you a book or scarf for Christmas or your birthday, even if you don't read it or wear it, you're still not gonna tell people who gave it to you to get our of your life. The reality is so different from the national perception. And most Alaskans recognize that."

Dittman noted one other consequence of the Begich victory he expects. "Mayor Begich's win is gonna simplify Sarah Palin's life a lot. It'll take that option [of possibly filling Stevens' Senate seat] off the table. When it's clear that won't be an issue, she can just focus on being a Governor."

Comments

[autumnimprov]

Here's some info from the Anchorage Daily News, Sat., 11/15/08:

Begich lead over Stevens grows
MARGIN IS 1,022 VOTES
There are about 24,000 ballots left to be counted, coming from Anchorage, Southeast Alaska and the Kenai Peninsula. The state will tally them all Tuesday.

Here's the link to the article:
http://www.adn.com/elections/senate/story/589919.html

You go, Mark! Or....you go, vote counters!

[decrepittex]

IF he didn't know what was happening was illegal, then his intelligence is really suspect. It's
frightening to think we have a person in the Senate THAT ignorant.

[gwats1957]

He knew what he was doing. What surprised him was that someone he didn't buy off was watching and he got caught with his knickers down around his ankles. Sorry, Mr. Senator. Not all of us like Kool-Aid.

[Twopennygal]

"details of alleged prosecutorial misconduct and strange juror behavior began to leak out," Huh? Where was that reported? I'm a news junkie and watch almost all of the news outlets (can't bring myself to watch faux news). I didn't see any allegations about "prosecutorial misconduct and strange juror behavior."

[Teutonicus]

of course the jurors behaved strangely: they found Stevens guilty and convicted him. That is "strange behaviour" in the eyes of lawless repugs.

[realityisbetter]

We've been doing commercial construction for 52 years and I've NEVER heard of somebody having their house (or any other building) totally renovated and doubled in size for free...let alone without seeing it as a gift. And how does somebody jack up your house and add an entire floor underneath without you knowing what's going on? Alaska is even more screwed up than I thought if they buy that crap.

It's not like he couldn't have said "no thanks" or paid for the work. That's totally insane!

[Calidris]

What planet are Dittman and his ilk from? He thinks we're stupid enough to believe that the only way we get "gifts" is to ask for them. What an infantile view of the world if he really thinks that way!
The fact of the matter is that whether Stevens asked for the "gifts" or not, he was legally supposed to report them on his disclosure form. That's so that we Alaskans -his real bosses- can know whether he's being straight with us when he plays the political game. Stevens seems to have forgotten that fundamental principle of our democratic system!

[pir anha]

whata ridiculous argument. we're not talking about a scarf and a book here; nobody would even raise an eyebrow if that's what those undeclared gifts were. we're talking about hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of renovations on his house -- how does one "not want" those? who held him down with a gun to his head and threatened "i do yer construction for free, man, or else!"?

but even if we were just talking about a few smaller things, like that 7 year "loan" of the expensive massage chair. why the heck not declare it? or if one really didn't want it, what's so hard about saying to the donour: "i appreciate the gesture, but unfortunately senate rules make it impossible for me to accept such an expensive gift, and if you insist, i will donate it in your name to a local charity"? that's what an ethical person would do.

[prog]

Regarding the $250,000 of renovations on his house provided by a campaign contributor, Dittman said: "In his mind, they weren't gifts. They were things he didn't ask for, didn't want, and didn't expect. ..."

Dittman, Mr. Stevens has been at this a long time, right? He was supposed to know better. If you don't know better, what's the point of all that experience?

Stevens was convicted because any rational juror figures that someone with 30 years of experience KNOWS BETTER, and therefore knew what he was doing was wrong.

[Wide Stance]

How exactly does one "not ask for" renovations to their house? That has to be the lamest attempt at spin I've ever heard, equating getting a gift you don't want--a *scarf*--with $250,000 in home renovations. If someone gave me a scarf worth a quarter of a million dollars I think I'd be okay with it. Imagine Senator Steven's embarrassment when he tells guests, "That's the ugly new wing of our house...it was a gift."

[Cole]

Why would anyone waste their time going to and listening to a Palin for Palin speach?

[Dayahka]

A Begich win would eliminate the possibility that the abominable show woman of Alaska would be a Senator. Now if we can just get this curiosity off the news and into the tabloids, we can get back to serious business.

[lemonyashes]

Lol

[fireW]

The fact that it is actually close speaks volumes about Alaska republicans. Pathetic.

[Yarrr]

Damn, we could actually get to 60 senate seats. I think?

[Horus45]

I believe that Obama's consideration of certain Republican senators for cabinet positions might be a veiled attempt to bring their numbers up to or beyond 60.
Like how John McCain is meeting with Obama today for some reason regarding a possible cabinet spot.
If McCain accepts a cabinet post his senate replacement will be picked by our Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano.

[Megaflow]

I'm not optimistic about the other two, especially Georgia. If I had to bet, I'd put money on Alaska being our last win of the season.

[lioness39]

I'm hoping for a Begich win. Anything that will hasten Sarah Palin's political demise works for me. I hope Alaska will kick her out of office in their next gubernatorial election. This woman is dangerous and I fear her lurking about and winning a seat of power. Disgrace would be my choice for Palin. Steven's has already soiled himself.

[dglow]

Not to mention the MSM didn't touch Palin's affair with her husband's best friend who ended up divorced over it. The McCain campaign made sure that no one got a peek at the divorce papers. Palin hasn't an ounce of loyalty or integrity in her whole body.

[yodaveg]

counting every vote
yields a bright future in which
the felon's gellin'

[HowietheScreamer]

To the pardon issue, well if we assume that Duuuhbuhya will follow his own rules...yea I know, it's a stretch, but hey... Stevens doesn't qualify for a pardon. Based on the rules that Duuhbuhya put on his own website, to qualify for a pardon, you have to have exhausted ALL appeals, and BE REPENTANT for your crime.

[b1rd67]

So Libby exhausted all of his appeals and was repentant?

[koromuso]

Libby wasn't pardoned. His sentence was communted. He stands convicted in a court of law.