Intelligence Report: Say Farewell To American Supremacy

WASHINGTON — Global warming could be a boon to Russia, a European country could be overrun by organized crime and the U.S. and its dollar could further decline in importance during the next two decades, says a U.S. intelligence report with predictions for the world in 2025.

The report, Global Trends 2025, is published every four years by the National Intelligence Council to give U.S. leaders insight into looming problems and opportunities.

The report says the warming earth will extend Russia and Canada's growing season and ease their access to northern oil fields, strengthening their economies. But Russia's potential emergence as a world power may be clouded by lagging investment in its energy sector, persistent crime and government corruption, the report says.

Analysts also warn that the same kind of organized crime plaguing Russia could eventually take over the government of an Eastern or Central European country. The report is silent on which one.

It also says countries in Africa and South Asia may find themselves unstable and ungoverned, as state regimes collapse or wither away under security problems and water and food shortages brought about by climate change and a population increase of 1.4 billion.

The potential for conflict will be greater in 2025 than it is now, as the world's population competes for declining and shifting food, water and energy resources.

Despite a more precarious world situation, the report also says al-Qaida's terrorist franchise could decay "sooner than people think." It cites its growing unpopularity in the Muslim world, where it kills most of its victims.

"The prospect that al-Qaida will be among the small number of groups able to transcend the generational timeline is not high, given its harsh ideology, unachievable strategic objectives and inability to become a mass movement," the report states.

The report forecasts a geopolitical rise in non-Arab Muslim states outside of the Middle East, including Turkey and Indonesia, and says Iran could also be a central player in a new world order if it sheds its theocracy.

The report, a year in the making, also suggests the world may complete its move away from its dependence on oil, and that the U.S. dollar, while remaining important, will decline to "first among equals" among other national currencies.

U.S. global power also will likely decline, as Americans' concerns about putting resources into solving domestic problems may cause the United States to pull resources from foreign and global problems.

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On the Net:

Global Trends 2025: http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html

Comments

[Sunlituplands]

The so called National Intelligence Estimate is a useless product of a dysfunctional system. Better to get a bunch of grad students using open sources to develop predictions. Much better, they, might be right.

[zepfan81]

I think what we need is a dose of "realism" on of our of the political system and with in the population at large, something we've lacked not just the past eight years, but in a lot of ways something we've lacked since the Johnson Administration. There is the old saying, "those who don't know history are destined to repeat it." I disagree, the problem tend to be people that DO know history, but somehow think they are smart enough to buck it. What we need to look at history as a guide because human nature hasn't changed, nor will it.

[wolfgangbloom]

In the future third world countries will be helped into advancing war so we can destroy them plain and simple. Who would you rather have clean water, your Aunt Jennifer that always gives you cash for christmas or "Wantanabe" a chieftan in Africa that exploits his people? When it comes down to resources it's about getting rid of people, population control, and that's all anything has ever been about. "I control your population so it ultimately doesn't take what my population needs." But at the same time those in power won't care about killing its own people, they've done it for centuries. I am going to seem John Lennonish here but when the power of love overtakes the love of power only then can we move on as a people. Power = war.... war = population control..... population control = you get to eat a sandwich and drink a glass of water.

[haramagoti]

How about we say Bye to this report? How militantly divisive of them. Keep up the indoctrination into a world disorder boys, your patriarchal ways are soon destined to be dropped like your sacs that never have. P.S. It's not about power, it's about cohesion. If you don't attempt to get along with anyone in the world, there will be room for conflict, if you do attempt to get along with them, the temptation of certain leaders to exploit their people and the power those people represent will potentially breed into conflict. Ever hear about global conflict resolution? There's plenty of books with the title, i'd hope you'd read any.

[haramagoti]

Sorry, i misspoke, i meant to say "if you do attempt to get along with them, the temptation of certain leaders to exploit their people and the power those people represent will potentially lessen the interaction breeding into conflict." Yipes!

[Semper]

If you read or study your world history, power in its own right destroys the soul. Its is a narcotic. In our democratic institutions we get to shift leaders and leadership. The Democrats had power for sometime and then the Republicans had in too. That party fell and fell hard. The Democrats will have power and it too will be lost. But the people must remain smart, because the power ultimately remains with them. We have a very flexible system here. Its the best, it knows how to find itself and thats because it has diversity. I never get worried about America, but I cry sometimes because it gets complacent.

[Semper]

America is great because of its people. We are coming back and we are changing the rules. This next 100 years America will teach the world how to love and respect each other. Bonds will be formed on the basis of trust not fear. We will come out from the darkness and into the light. We will help our neighbors, and teach our enemies, that there is not need to kill to win. But to earn respect on the basis of reason.

[ContraEgoiste]

The way to progress and continued evolution here and anywhere in the world is EDUCATION. You can not force progress through aggression. Yes, you can stop the regression of progress with very well thought out, tactical and limited force and not be there one second longer than necessary, but you can not advance progress in any temporary way through jingoism.

But before the US can again be this champion of progress it needs to reassess its identity and change the direction it"s been heading for the last 40 years or so. Being an empire does not equate to changing the world in a positive direction. And policy that reacts out of fear to everything outside the US, or everything that does not conform to US culture, as inherently bad causes more harm to everyone including us. If world progress is what we truly seek and not just empire for the appropriation of resources, then we can not just be behave like the proverbial bull in the china shop.

The other major point is, you can not advance something you yourself lack or are loosing at a rapid pace. And you can not be in a position to help anyone if you yourself are in dire need of it. We may need (may not have a choice) to put the brakes on "supremacy" and concentrate on educating, changing and rebuilding ourselves before we can continue to be a positive influence on the world.

[ContraEgoiste]

oops, it's supposed to be...

..but you can not advance progress in any PERMANENT way through jingoism.

[KurtisMae]

Read the report this morning by the National Intelligence Council which predicts a widespread shift in power from the U.S. to Russia over the next 15 years.

Then I noticed a piece of news from Moscow reporting some funny business in the high-profile trial of three men in the killing of Russian muckracking journalist Anna Politkovskaya. The court announced proceedings would be secret due to fears by jury members of possible recriminations. Only it turns out the the jury expressly wanted an open court. And let's not forget, prime minister--and once and future president--Vladimir Putin has been strongly rumored to have had a hand in this affair.

The second of these two news items instilled in me a profound doubt about the accuracy of the first.

I think there is a lesson or two to be re-learned here:

1. no country is going to better the good old USA with pretend democracy, openness and free markets.

2. it is precisely the laissez-faire political free market that is this country's greatest strength. In the end, when we ridicule our wonderful country when she deserves it, we're showing our respect for her strength and resiliency - and our belief that she can be even better.

I welcome the "rise of the others"; a stronger world and a bigger pie can only be good for America.

But let's not forget who--for all her warts--is the prettiest girl at the dance.

[Twinkie]

Russia is in SERIOUS trouble now that oil is below $50 a barrel. They budgeted for a price at around $90 and even that was before the economic meltdown has cost them a pile of their cash reserves. That and continued corruption will keep Russia as a regional power only.

[GravitonX]

The flaw in the report is it's fundamental adverserial approach to power and rigid framework from which power is calculated. It's one that has inform American and European (or white) Supremacy for the better part of five centuries, that "I" can only be power if "you" are completely dependent and underdeveloped.

[zepfan81]

That's been the framework we've used since the dawn of man.

[matthewhusseinsmith]

I am going to get a lot of flack from liberals, but here goes:
As some one says, and I paraphrase, if you want to avoid war, be prepared for it.
So, I believe the US needs to be the number one military power in the world, as well as being the most enlightened, the most educated, the most frugal, the most non-materialistic, the most virtuous nation.
Somebody in this world must stand for freedom and justice and be ready to defend it because on the international scene there are too many immoral and unjust governments ( note, I say governments, not peoples ) along with an inept UN.
We will not bully, we will not interfere, we will respect the sovereignty of other nations, we will not start a fight, but we'll finish it.
We believe that war is the last resort, when all diplomatic means which include consultation with allies and the UN, have failed.
For those reasons, the US needs to change its current course and turn back its decline.
The first step is to regain our independence from Japan and Saudi Arabia by making better and more gas efficient cars. The second step is to live within our means and stop borrowing money from foreigners for instant gratification, materialistic purposes. The third step is to prosecute and put all financial banks CEO's, hedge fund CEO's in jail.

[demigod]

But what to we do about Israel ? Our grotesque relationship with this apartheid state puts the lie to our claims of justice and freedom, and earns us the enmity of a large portion of the world. Israel is a nation built on stolen arab land. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians continue to rot away in refugee camps while people who had no connection to the Middle East enjoy hegemony there. Nothing changes that.

[matthewhusseinsmith]

Here is an interesting article about land claims and land distribution in he Middle East:

http://www.nclci.org/Articles/art-flan-foundation.htm

[Bluedrgn]

As far as I can tell from my (albiet limited) research the Jews have as much right to live there as the Arab Mulslims do... in fact they were there first... the Jews had settled much of the middle east at one point to include what is now, Eygpt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebenon, Syria etc. Sure in modern times the Jews "stole" the land that is now Isreal... but it was first "stolen" from them long ago. I

If the native Americans all moved to one portion of the U.S and then declared independence from the Union, would you say the were stealing land the had no right to?

[addisonsteele]

The US can thank the Republican party for speeding up the process.

[zepfan81]

Some of these comments blow my mind. Do you really know what it means for the U.S. to lose supremacy? Do we really think it'll lead to a more enlightened world? Do you really think it'll lead to some utopia of international cooperation and peace? If so please give me a historical example of this ever happening. There will always be a top dog and we need to ask ourselves do we really want that top dog to be China and/or Russia. Look there is no doubt our foreign policy is lacking in some areas to say the least, but to deny the good we've done all around the world is just destructive self-loathing and that's the last thing we need right now. We don't need to lose our supremacy. We just need to get smarter, not be so greedy, and use our power wisely and effectively and realize we can't change the rest of the world, nor should we, but we can influence it in a positive way. People we are only 232 years old, we're not even adults in nation years and we're already giving up? Also realize this isn't the Bush Admininistration's fault completely. It's the culmination of three decades of stupidity and greed from ALL of us. It's not like Bush staged a coupe. Whatever you think of 2000, in 2004 he won outright DESPITE the fact it was obvious he was incompetent. Patriotism is a GOOD thing when it's based on reality.

[JoeBlough]

"lose our supremacy"? - We didn't lose it. The neocons gave it away.

[zepfan81]

They were part of it no doubt, but who let them do it? WE DID!!!

[Number15]

Examples, Sure ... we took the UK supremacy away when we threatened to cash all of their bonds after WW2. The UK was so over extended (sound familiar) they did not have the cash and the US knew it. We agreed to not cash the bond we took over the UK's place as a super power.

I'm totally pro US - however think about the world.. between China and India is more tha 1/3 of the worlds population. Whatever you think of them they WILL be a force to be reckoned with. Perhaps not in the immediate future but certainly in this century. It's not that we fade away but the stage is going to be increasingly shared with other countries. Its not a bad thing. As americans we have always been big on idea .. we need to be able to adapt as we have done for so long. But instead we are nervous about the future afraid that everyone hates us . We aren't facing the challenges head on.

[zepfan81]

I do agree with you. China and India will, just by shear numbers, be forces to be reckoned with. My complaint, though, is against those who actually seem to WANT the U.S. to decline.

[JoeBlough]

Does this mean we won't have to be the police of the world?
We can finally keep our money to ourselves?
This would be such a big relief.

[Furby]

"Police of the world?" See, that's been the problem for a while now. You never had to, you just did it anyway, and in all the wrong places. Take a break, relax and yes, keep your money too. Win, win, win.

[Krackonis]

The world doesn't WANT you policing it. Since you can't even keep your own corrupt house in order stay away from us.

[kreider204]

The sooner the better! We will be so much better a country, in so many ways, when we no longer have the power and influence to bully the rest of the world.

[babylonandon]

People always forget that not one of the other nations who want to replace us at the top of the food chain is about to allow us to sit out there somewhere with the ability to be a threat to them in the future if our desires to walk away from power change. They know we can build back up if left militarily viable.

They would make damn sure that we were crushed so as not to even even think of interfering with what they see as their place as king of the world ... its what every power has done. We did to Japan, Germany, Spain, the Confederacy, Mexico, etc. I promise you EVERYONE else is well aware of this lesson - crush your enemies or they'll come back. The Chinese have been working the computer virus and nanobot plague angles for years preparing to take us out when the time is right.

If you don't think that the Russians, the Chinese, India, Iran, and others don't think this way then you haven't traveled enough. People always think WE have a monopoly on arrogance, racism, and nationalism until they've been outside long enough to get inside of other people's heads - and then they get a real shock.

[zepfan81]

thank you!

[Bluedrgn]

You are completly right.

As poorly as the U.S handles being on top, you can bet your bottom dollar that the world is better off with us there than pretty much anyone else...

Unfortunatly the influence/power of the U.S. IS going to decline... but we better all pray it doen't declene below the likes of Russia and China.

[mh01]

I'm sure that somehow, the whole (predicited) demise of america as global power will be blamed on Bush to.

[JessWonderin]

that's a start . . . (by the way that's "too" . . .)

and whose "prediction" are you using as your "guide"? Nostradamus, the Maya, NRA, Left Behinders, Yanamomos or Osama's????

[mh01]

The Prediction which is in the article to which we are all commenting, funny guy.

[ContraEgoiste]

No, not just on Bush, but the entire jingoistic, narrow minded, superbly greedy, lack of vision and foresight, incompetent, corrupt, authoritarian, anti-democracy Republican party of the last 30 years.