Good morning, everyone and welcome to your Sunday Morning Liveblog of Political Chattery and Grammar Policemanship. There are one thousand, four hundred and forty three days until the next presidential election. Today we are still in the midst of our Glorious Transition Period. We have a Secretary of the Treasury - Timothy Geithner - whose hair looks like it aspires to Lyle Lovettian heights, n'est-ce pas? And there are many other appointments and positions that will be discussed today, along with the extant Hillary Clinton/Secretary of State appointment, which has so captured the easily captured imagination of Washington, along with the Clintons sworn enemies - everyone in the press. This Sunday is one of the few obstacles standing in the way of Thanksgiving, so let's surmount it, shall we? As always, leave comments as you desire, and send emails here.
FOX NEWS SUNDAY
Ahh, Fox News Sunday. Your refusal to upgrade from the mid 1980s where graphics and music are concerned truly inspires. Your refusal to get rid of the tiredest, least insightful panel on television truly doesn't. Anyway, here's David Axelrod, who's been named a White House advisor to Barack Obama, increasing the presence of mustaches in the new White House. Timothy Geithner will be joined by Bill Richardson at Commerce and Lawrence Summers at the Fed, where he will presumably be kept far from all Women of the Sciences. Axelrod says that we need the best minds available to deal with the economy, which will feast on them, like zombies.
Axelrod also says that a stimulus package is a key first item of Obama's first days. Wallace wonders if he'll promise to not raise taxes on the "wealthy and corporations" during a recession, so that the United States can get through the recession, after which there will be a new reason to not raise taxes on them. Axelrod explains for the ninety millionth time that the "aggregate effect of his tax plan" is a cut, so suck it riches! Axelrod doesn't make Obama sound bullish on bailout, either. That's not good enough for Wallace, who wants to see unions get spanked, too. This sounds like a good time to bring in a little bit of mythbusting...in a minute, anyway.
So, Obama's National Security team apparently includes Hillary Clinton, Robert Gates, and General James Jones. Wallace says that this doesn't make everyone on the left happy. Axelrod says that policy will be set by Obama, so don't worry. I say that there are some of the left who just cannot be made to be happy. You can only hope to make them drunk, occasionally. Leaving Gates, as I understand it, is an important part of bridging the gap between the incoming President and the Pentagon, who will be tasked with removing forces from Iraq according to the newly signed Status Of Forces Agreement with the Iraqi government.
OK. Some mythbusting, courtesy Jonathan Cohn. Have you heard about how rich the union automaker is? Making $70/hour? Hey, guess what? NOT TRUE.
Let's start with the fact that it's not $70 per hour in wages. According to Kristin Dziczek of the Center for Automative Research--who was my primary source for the figures you are about to read--average wages for workers at Chrysler, Ford, and General Motors were just $28 per hour as of 2007. That works out to a little less than $60,000 a year in gross income--hardly outrageous, particularly when you consider the physical demands of automobile assembly work and the skills most workers must acquire over the course of their careers.
More important, and contrary to what you may have heard, the wages aren't that much bigger than what Honda, Toyota, and other foreign manufacturers pay employees in their U.S. factories. While we can't be sure precisely how much those workers make, because the companies don't make the information public, the best estimates suggests the corresponding 2007 figure for these "transplants"--as the foreign-owned factories are known--was somewhere between $20 and $26 per hour, and most likely around $24 or $25. That would put average worker's annual salary at $52,000 a year.
So the "wage gap," per se, has been a lot smaller than you've heard. And this is no accident. If the transplants paid their employees far less than what the Big Three pay their unionized workers, the United Auto Workers would have a much better shot of organizing the transplants' factories. Those factories remain non-unionized and management very much wants to keep it that way.
Anyway, now John Boehner is asking, once again, for no one to raise taxes on the wealthy. Wallace, fresh from an interview where Axelrod stated very clearly that the "aggregate effect of the tax plan is a tax cut," says that "Axelrod left it wide open." Steny Hoyer and John Boehner then start yapping at each other, gobbling like turkeys, until finally some Alaskan dude stuffs them headfirst into a turkey-chipper.
Just kidding, sadly. Now Boehner is yelling at automakers to come back to the Congress with a plan. "At the end of the day it's about the American taxpayer needs to believe they are investing in a company that's viable." That's a bit superciliious, considering that everyone knows those companies aren't viable.
Agh, card check. Wallace says there's nothing more American than the secret ballot. Know what, then? Let's stop talking about card check! Let's have the massive electoral reform we deserve! Let's standardize paper trails at all polling places. Let's create the easiest possible access to voting.
Now it's time for Hume, Liasson, Kristol and Williams, the Four Horsemen of the Meh-pocalypse. Appointments! Hume says that the economic team is "centrist and cautious" and basically allows people like him to believe isn't going to be a big chance. Hume then LITERALLY TRAILS OFF INTO MUMBLING. Liasson continues the whole "center-right" storyline. I don't quite understand this need on the denialist right to try to pretend that voters aren't happy to have voted for what they voted for! I mean, have you read the Status of Forces Agreement? Withdrawal is happening, folks! Actual attention to al Qaeda is getting paid! Obama's stood by his principled call for diplomacy throughout the campaign. No one in the world believes that Obama is anything like Bush-Cheney. This is all a bunch of back-channel smack talk between right-leaning pundit dorks and their left-leaning dork colleagues. No one in the real world recognizes Obama as a center-right revolution.
In fact, no one was even talking about this until election day. Check it out!
Yes. The United States of America. A center-left nation. Iraq withdrawal is a mainstream position. Universal healthcare is a mainstream position. Deal with it, if you want. Leave your head in the sand, like the Fox News Sunday panel. Don't matter to me!
"I've talked to serious people," Kristol says, which, after this election year, I just don't believe is true anymore. I don't think he ever talks to anyone serious. I think he wanders into pet stores, and yammers at the birds, until he's asked to leave by the shopkeepers.
George Bush, Wallace says, "seems to have lost a lot of credibility with the markets." Proving at last that the markets truly are a lagging indicator.
Williams basically puts the "centrism" argument into perspective. "All this talk of socialism is crazy!" Yes. This is a fine example of what life is right in the Breakout Republic of Foxistan: thje political spectrum jumps from pure Socialism right to Centrism, as if there weren't a million miles in between.
Breaking news! The President has a fancy plane!
THIS WEEK, WITH GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS
Joann emails, asking after why they re-announced Robert Gibbs appointment as Press Secretary. "It was one of the first things we heard about (as a done deal, actually) and yet they just made it official. Which Mother Superior jumped the gun?" Don't know, actually. Maybe they wanted to sort of roll Gibbs out along with a Communications Director, which they didn't have until yesterday (Ellen Moran of EMILY's List.).
Oh, hey! My boss is on this show today! I am totally in the tank for her, I guess! And it's David Axelrod again. Yippee.
GS and Ax talk economic stimulus. How big will it be? "I'm not going to get into numbers," Ax says, but there will an End To Digging and a Climbing Out Of The Hole, unless of course, there's an important infrastructure program where digging is useful. That's the basic gist: alternative energy and infrastrusture improvement are where jobs are going.
GS wants to know about the timing of the Geithner announcement - was it done just so, to goose the markets? It was probably done just so to goose the markets before the weekend, so that there wasn't a couple extra days of volatility to make the media question the choice all over Sunday. Ax talks up Geithner as "the sort of person you want when you're facing the [crises] of today."
Ax says Obama isn't committed to helping an auto industry that won't "retool and reorganize" their businesses, and hopes that the executives return with a plan in December - "hopefully on commercial flights."
Axelrod defends the choice of Hillary Clinton against accusations from GS, a former member of the Clinton entourage, that the Clinton entourage will be all high-melodrama and freakouts, by saying once again that Obama will be the one person setting policy, that he invites strong opinions, that his cabinet members will not be "potted plants" - like Margaret Spellings! Axelrod also defends the Gates retention against the notion that it's a betrayal of Hope and Change, by reminding that our involvement in Iraq is winding down.
Now it's Richard Shelby and Chuck Schumer. Shelby says Geithner is guy he can work with. Schumer says Geithner and Summers are both the right people from the job. GS asks Schumer about an item in the American Spectator, in which he apparently says Geithner and Summers are incompetent, and Schumer looks like somebody lost their mind. That's because it's an item from the American Spectator, a magazine written by jabbering twits.
Schumer thinks that the economic stimulus package needs to be a "big shot in the arm" - like Uma Thurman in Pulp Fiction, maybe? Shelby wants to take a look at the details, which is Inside-the-Beltwayese for, "My decision will be based on how much risk to me retaining my seat I'll have to weather." Credit Shelby for getting through a fitting criticism of the automakers without demonizing unions, though.
Ahh, but: Citigroup. Shelby is against all the intervention is "a mistake." "Citi's got to save itself," Shelby says. Schumer says that the lesson of Lehman teaches against letting Citi fail, and that there are still real money-making value. I think I'm instinctually leaning in the Shelby's direction, here.
And now, Panel Time! With George Will, Arianna, Robert Kuttner and David Brooks.
George Will says that Geithner is "impressive because he's presided over crises." But the problem with stimulus packages is that we Americans keep taking the money we get from those government checks and SAVES THE MONEY. Actually, we also PAY DOWN DEBT, which is the same thing, only better. Arianna stresses Obama's commitment to a "fact-based" administration that rebuilds what is broken. But David Brooks thinks we shouldn't go back to the New Deal: "Sometimes it takes eighty months" to build a road. So...let's not build them? Brooks says we need to "build relationships." I have no idea how building relationships makes my economy grow. Kuttner disagrees, saying that stimulus to states prevents layoffs and keeps people spending.
Will says that the New Deal didn't work because it caused the collapse of industry in 1937. Arianna calls it a myth, but it falls to Kuttner to refute Will, noting that the collapse in 1937 came with FDR's attempt to balance the budget, and in 1942, the war had revived the industrial sector to fight the war. Kuttner believes that a similar ramp up could be achieved in the area of the green economy, fuel efficiency, and energy independence. David Brooks calls this a "five-year plan" and Will agrees, but listening to him, I feel like he's more or less married to the idea that any "future of the auto industry" involves the relics who are killing it today. Arianna is feeling my mindgrapes, and wonders why new leadership can't be the logical part of reviving the auto industry.
I can't recall how this conversation shifted, by the way, from an overarching discussion of infrastructure investment to the auto bailout, but I guess that's what's really on people's mind.
But, okay, what about appointments? Arianna says that the netroots should be giving the Obama team the leeway to establish its agenda, and that the Hillary nomination has been more a but of media-driven, "Henry James" melodrama. Brooks and Will like the appointments, and insist that the left should be disappointed. It's like the practical matter of having policies doesn't matter to these people! You know, a guy like George Will is just diminished when he's mewling naively about THE FEELINGS PEOPLE SHOULD HAVE. "You liberals should actually be sad!" STOP PROJECTING, DORKMACHINE.
Brooks isn't diminished by this, because he has so few original thoughts anyway. And deep down, we know that Brooks hearts Obama like the Shiba Inu puppycam. But if he likes it then he should've put a ring on it.
Arianna suggests that everyone go back and listen to Obama's YouTube address and try to pretend that the Obama is some sort of center-right ideologue. Kuttner says he'd like to see some progressive skeptics on the inside, but admits that every time he's expected to be disappointed by Obama, he's been wrong.
Will is insistent, "It's not easy to be liberal today, Bob."
Kuttner replies, "It's easier than it was!"
From where I sit, I agree to a certain extent with my boss that the center has shifted and what's getting exposed is that a whole lot of thought-to-be fringe ideas are actually on the mainstream. I think that something the Obama team recognizes, though, is that more than a simple menu of progressive policy prescriptives, the people of this country is hungry for a few years of sane and competent governance - a couple examples that every little challenge doesn't end in unholy disaster. I think that if Obama team can deliver a couple years of not running off the rails on a weekly basis, the people will be more inclined to hear about some increasingly progressive ideas - and they'll come by that inclination HONESTLY, in the spirit of, "Okay, you've earned my attention if you've got some new directions to go in." With some exceptions (and i expect there to be exceptions) I think I've responded much like Kuttner has.
I'll tell you what, when my wife found out that Obama was thinking about doing away with Daylight Savings Time - which she hates worse than feline AIDS - she was pretty ecstatic.
That said, I'd be cool with Joe Stiglitz getting a position in the Obama campaign, myself. (Though I think the overarching strategies Stiglitz used during the Clinton administration are fully appreciated in the Obama administration.)
OH LORD NO IT'S TIME FOR...
MEET THE PRESS
Ryan, by the way, emails: "David Axelrod looks presentable! Who bought him a comb?" HA! He really did look groomed, didn't he? Honestly, I think he's on the same shaving cycle as me...but his mustache was tight today! You could bounce a quarter off of that thing!
Oh, can we talk economic stimulus? Four million people are planning to come to DC for inauguration to apparently freeze to death in the streets, nowhere near inauguration. All kinds of people are planning on descending on this city to sell people swag. i was standing in front of my laundromat yesterday and some dude was excitedly talking on his cell phone about selling "YES WE CAN" bracelets on Inauguration. "I was pretty wasted when I had the idea," he yammered at whoever was on the other end of the phone, "But when I sobered up I realized that the margins would be, like, eighty-one percent! That's huge, dude!" NOT MAKING THIS UP.
So, James Baker and William Daley, yapping about the economy! Is Obama going to repeat an FDR-type public works project, Brokaw wonders. Daley says it will be "large enough to be meaningful," but not exactly the same thing. "It has to be a combination of things," Daley says. Baker says he'll reserve judgement on any package until he sees it, but feels Obama's pinpointed the problem - whether or not infrastructure should be the centerpiece seems to be his big problem with Obama. Also, Baker says, "Yaaahhh! No backsliding on trade! Free trade makes everyone a winner!" Oh, really? Check the history of currency speculation, my friend! LOTTA LOSERS. Also, a commenter rebuts:
Like most on the right (even some Democrats like Bill Clinton), they claim that free-trade is good for the economy but never show their evidence. At least from an historical perspective, there is no evidence -- there never was.
In terms of real wages for the average working person (real Americans), they have fallen under free-trade. For entry-level workers without a college degree their real wages have dropped more than 20% in the past 25 years. Moreover, the GDP, the way the U.S. calculates domestic productivity, is flawed in light that the fact that so much offshoring has occurred in which products are not domestically produced anymore. This flaw, incidentally, is referred to as "phantom GDP". Understanding it shows that the economy since 1980 may not have actually grown as one might expect.
This is why I'd like to see a Joe Stiglitz in the mix, because he's not anti-free trade, by any means, but is a realist, and not some jabbering gibbon who only knows to bang his cymbals together and shriek, "FREE TRADE IS ALWAYS GOOD! WHEEE!"
Brokaw thinks it's a "reasonable idea" to get close to the Bush White House during the transition. Don't ask me why! Daley assures that there is "great consultation" going on between the two administrations. Baker says that "nothing would give the American people more confidence" than to see Bush and Obama get together on some "proposal over the short term" that would "stabilize our financial system." I think that if word got out that Bush was contributing anything to a plan endorsed by Obama, Americans would run wild in the street, setting their heads on fire, with hopelessness. Let the two administrations be put asunder!
Baker: "The president-elect would not have to take ownership...it would be a joint project." Yeah, if it were me as the president-elect, I'd be flying the flag "Thank you, no!" alongside the star-spangled banner of "SERIOUSLY, DUDE, YOU ARE THE PRESIDENT. HAVE YOU NOTICED? MAYBE ONE DAY, BEFORE YOU LEAVE OFFICE, YOU COULD HAVE AN IDEA OR SOMETHING THAT DOESN'T COMPLETELY SUCK? STOP LOOKING TO ME AS A CRUTCH. BE A MAN FOR ONCE IN YOUR LIFE."
Ha, ha! Comical suck-clown Henry Paulson went on the radio and said NO BANKS WOULD FAIL AGAIN EVER. And just like always, his statements of certainty were the cue for banks to fail, in this case Citigroup. When will Paulson realizes that he should never talk about things? Oh, I laugh, but the sad truth is that Paulson is basically president for the next sixty days, each one of which will bring fresh disaster and pain, so long as people keep soliciting his opinions, which all have Native American curses attached to them.
Baker says that back when Reagan was in office, he denied them a bailout and the automakers managed to "become one of the most effective and efficient automobile industries in the world." Really? Because since then they've resisted innovation and produced a ton of cars that nobody wants to buy, ever.
Baker thinks the Obama administration is "center-right!" Everybody DRINK! Jeez, in a CHINESE DEMOCRACY age, these GOP relics sure are USING THEIR ILLUSION, VOLUMES 1 and 2.
Oh, boy! Joe Lieberman's next! In the world of Guns N' Roses references, he's "THE SPAGHETTI INCIDENT?"
Holly emails:
What's up with Energy Secretary? I wonder if Obama has a surprise up his sleeve - no, not Palin! But T. Boone Pickens? Seems Obama would have chosen Richardson for Energy since he's done it before, but noooo. He's going to commerce. Soooooo??? Maybe someone dramatic?? What do you think?
It's really highly unlikely it will be Pickens, who figures by now that he's sold his position on natural gas as well as he ever could. Now he's got to figure a way the wheedle some government funding to get energy from his remotely-located windfarms to the rest of the country, and, as that infrastructure is installed, maybe grab some land that's got some water underneath it for pennies on the dollar, and then his masterplan will be complete. I think that it would probably not go unnoticed if he started enriching himself from the seat at Energy, so it's more likely that his PR-managed charm-offensive will continue.
That said, on a quick ask-around, I can tell you that no one really has a clear idea who might end up at Energy. I know some California folks who think/hope/wonder that it could be Jerry McNerney, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
I'm guessing it won't be Palin, unless Detroit can develop a comedy powered car.
Now it's time for Joe Lieberman. What does he think about the economic stimulus package? Joe gets right to burying his face in the brownhole of power, complimenting Obama. But he's got two derrieres to snuffle, now doesn't he? So he echoes Baker in calling for President Bush to work with everyone on a "short term stimulus" package. What Lieberman doesn't seem to get is having announced his intention to pass a stimulus package in January, people can start planning their budgets NOW, which will spur some growth.
"Paulson might have been right when he said our financial institutions were stable," Lieberman says. Uhm, Joe? What part of Citigroup fell apart the very next day don't you understand?
So, Brokaw calls out Lieberman for breaking his promise not to criticize Obama from the RNC. OH, SWEET MOSES: Lieberman tries this, "I wasn't speaking to the Republican delegates, I was speaking to independents and Democrats" defense, and Brokaw throws some mad PSHAW! on that. "Due respect," he says, "But you were speaking at the Republican Convention."
"It's over," Lieberman says, "we have to all unite behind them." I always recommend that you never let Lieberman get behind you without watching him. He's got Play-Doh for principles and the soul of a Roman conspirator. Cassius Clay, call him.
What about all the crazy-ass things that Sarah Palin and others said about Obama? Lieberman never expressed his disapproval. Lieberman lies and says that he did, "to people in the media," but in fact he's not really expressing his disapproval now! He approves of the "tone Obama has set in victory" in that Joe still has a job.
Brokaw brings up Lieberman's approval of Palin. For what it's worth, my wife remarks of Brokaw: "Dude can barely conceal his disgust." She adds, loudly, "Just say, 'I WAS WRONG.' 'I WAS WRONG.' SAY IT. USE YOUR WORDS. 'I WAS WRONG.'" Like the Social Distortion song. Remember: this liveblog will always be a safe place for fans of Social Distortion.
But now Brokaw wants to get into the FEELINGS. Did the non-punishment feel like a punishment? Of course it didn't. And it wasn't. "I think the President wants to have a united Democratic party...the people are sick of partisanship, they want someone to put country first and that, I think is what Barack Obama has been making clear he will do since the night he was elected." Uhm, since before that night, actually, Joe, you farkakte ganef.
My wife opines: "Joe Lieberman is like that pregnant man. He wants it both ways. He thinks he's having it both ways. He believes he can convince me there are two ways about it. But I'm not fooled: THAT'S A UTERUS, WHAT YOU HAVE."
And with that, I'm done with this guy.
Okay, Panel Time! With Erin Burnett, Eugene Robinson, Chuck Todd and Paul Ingrassia.
Brokaw and Burnett get into how the "market will respond," Burnet says that the combination of clarity and caution may be good for the market, but that the market is "lukewarm" on the economy. Todd says that Obama's been tracking in the direction of moving toward taking over the economy sooner, rather than later. Robinson is gobsmacked that Baker would suggest that Bush "step down early," and just as my head is snapping, "No, that's not what he said at all," Brokaw jumps in with a "I'm not sure he was going that far." Yes. Baker was suggesting that the two work together on a short-term stimulus package. I think it's a bad idea for Obama to let George Bush get his peanut butter in his chocolate.
Paul Ingrassia says that Detroit needs "hybrid bankruptcy" or "hybrid restructuring." Shorter contracts, simpler rules, and managed shrinkage. Brokaw protests that bankruptcy would diminish shareholder value, but Ingrassia points out: "It's already nothing." "There's no painless way out,"
Robinson says that for the country to regain confidence, those three CEOs need to pack it in and hit the road. Brokaw thinks Obama needs to get in the face of the unions. Le Sigh. Yes, because they said, "Let's sell a bunch of terrible cars." Look, the unions will have to come to the dance, but the fish rots from the head.
Then there's some chit-chat on the Cabinet. Everyone has such huge personalities! Not so huge that it makes talking about them for the 9,473rd time exciting, but exciting all the same.
Todd says that Hispanics were angling for a big Cabinet position, "a seat at the big table," and that Richardson's takeover at Commerce fulfills that, with some coming beef-up to Commerce's profile. Burnett points out that trade is such a large part of their purview, that it's a seat where Richardson's international experience will be useful. That's the most interesting thing anyone said about the Cabinet picks.
And they abruptly wrap it up. Okay. Well, how about this? It's Thanksgiving this week, which means I get to spend about 45 hours on the New Jersey Turnpike, seven of which is spent cursing out Delaware for its high tolls and its inability to get EZ PASS lanes right. And yet this is one of my favorite holidays, because I know it brings all Americans together, to yell at Delaware, or whatever problems you have, which we will simply call Delaware, or, if you prefer, Northern Maryland. Well, once all the yelling is over, I hope that all of you have an enjoyable holiday, with family and friends - even if by family and friends I mean barflies, because you are some sort of professional drunk (a high-skewing demographic in this liveblog). I'll be back on Sunday, because no one had the foresight to put Thanksgiving on a Sunday, so i could take it off. Happy Turducken Day!