Poll: McAuliffe Could Win VA Primary -- But Lose Election

New -- and perhaps the first -- polling numbers are out for the 2009 gubernatorial race in Virginia, made more famous by the inclusion of Terry McAuliffe in the Democratic field.

With the election 11 months away, the former DNC chair seems decently positioned to secure his party's nomination, certainly for a candidate associated with high-society Washington D.C. than downstate Virginia values.

Among Democrats, McAuliffe is viewed favorably by 20% of voters, while 52% have a favorable view of his candidacy. Another candidate in the primary race, Rep. R. Creigh Deeds, is most popular -- "with 55% viewing him favorably, including 23% who are very favorable." Rep. Brian J. Moran, is faring slightly worse than McAuliffe, with 48% of Democrats viewing him favorably and 15% regarding him very favorably.

Moran is the only one of three Democratic hopefuls who beats the Republican favorite, Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell, in a hypothetical straight match-up. And in this count -- which has some bearing but is not as important in the context of the Democratic primary -- McAuliffe is faring worst among the three lead candidates.

What do the results (taken from a pool of 500 voters tell us)? With the primary to be held in June, they suggest that McAuliffe, who lives in northern Virginia, may not be fatally handicapped by the "outsider" taint his opponents are hoping to cast upon him.

"Terry McAuliffe doesn't fit Virginia's New Democratic tradition," Moran spokesman Jesse Ferguson, told Politico a few weeks ago. "Virginians will wonder if he's running for the right reasons."

While opinions are bound to change over the course of the next six months, that could work well to McAuliffe's advantage. A prodigious fundraiser with tons of big money connections, he is bound to have the cash to blanket Virginia's airwaves.

Comments

[NationalTreasure]

Virginians hate McAuliffe -- a 20% favorability rating among Democrats in Virginia is pretty damn lame

Virginians have not forgotten and will never forgive McAullife for all of the nasty crap that spewed out of his blow hole when he was working for Hillary

if McAullife runs a whole lot of Virginians will vote for the republican candidate or stay home

stay home McAullife do not put Virginia back into the hands of the republicans, please McAullife just go away

[truthbrigade]

Absolutely, some other Democrat better challenge McAuliffe; otherwise, the State will go Red again.

[LeRoyHolt]

The kiss of death for TM was doing shots of rum on Morning Joe... a short commercial showing the same ... would effectively kill any good will there might be out there...

[truthbrigade]

He is associated with HIllary; a kiss of death for him in Virginia

[edwcorey]

I don't think you can win when your name appears on the ballot as "Rat Face."

[KNadine]

McAuliffe acted like a complete baffoon during Hillary's campaign. If I lived in Virginia, I certainly woudn't want him as my Gov. Besides, he acts like he's always h.i.g.h on something.

[exotic]

Hillary will hire him

[CharlottesvilleVA]

If McAuliffe is the Dem nominee, the Republicans win. No doubt whatsoever. He's neither a centrist nor "one of us." The carpetbagger thing worked for Hillary in NY, but it won't work in Virginia.

[MarieFara]

Obama was dead in the first batch of polls before the Iowa caucus, so frankly early polls mean nothing.

[leeman79]

Deeds is good. He lost to McDonnell, but it was very close. He can win next time.

[gtt]

I tired quickly of watching old McAuliffe. I hope the VA democrats rally behind another good democrat to save us all from having this old style corporate democrat. It is no accident that McAuliffe was the political fundraiser for the conservative wing of the democratic party and now has ties to all the corporate elite. Please VA, nominate a democrat who comes from the democratic wing of our party.

[RJII]

watch Hillary hire him for senior position at the state dept. she'll probably send lucrative contracts to Mark Penn. business as usual.

[RJII]

this guy just rambles as many talking points as he can in 30 seconds. Don't matter the question. He'll say anything as long as it is good for him. I wouldn't trust him to tell the needed truth otherwise. he did a dis-service to HRC

[NoSandwiches]

This man is a joke.
He was hyper-delusional and did a very poor job of being a credible representative for HC.
I wouldn't vote against him.....but I sure would find it difficult to vote for him.

I have neither respect nor trust for someone who acted so bizarrely during the election and kept trying to tell me the sky was green while waving pom-poms.

[ckfan]

I worked hard for Barack Obama to become President and I'll work just as hard for the person who runs AGAINST McAuliffe.

In his support of Clinton, McAuliffe acted like an idiot during the primaries. The final straw was when he announced Hilary as the next President of the United States on the night Obama clinched the nomination. I was furious then and I'm even more furious now. This was a historic moment and that idiot McAuliffe was not gracious in defeat nor did he acknowledge Obama's historic moment.

So, run Terry, run. I will be tripping and pushing you every step of the way. You're a disgrace. And a class-less act.

[bill76]

i will have your back. Especially if Kaine is running against him.

[AgathaX]

TM will never be governor of Virginia. I only worry that he'll divert attention from a candidate who can be.

Brian Moran for Governor!