Green Energy In 2009: Predictions And Things To Watch

As the new year approaches, it's time to think about what will come for green energy next year. On the small scale, I happen to agree with a commenter on this DailyGreen call for 2009 green predictions. The commenter predicts that solar bags will be the big trend of '09. I hope so -- they're just barely short of great right now.

But let's go to the big picture.

1. CLEANTECH STARTUPS WILL KEEP IT UP

TreeHugger calls out six cleantech startups to watch in 2009, saying that they'll build on the strength of a good 2008 for such companies. That's saying a lot -- 2008 was inconceivably terrible for just about everyone else.

One excerpt:

OptiSolar: Planning one of the largest PV solar projects in the world, this start-up is one to follow in the upcoming year. We've seen OptiSolar do a few noteworthy things, and they're likely to make more big moves, especially as solar power increases in efficiency and ranking as an alternative energy source.

And that brings us to an interesting (and exciting) point, originally brought to our attention by the American Wind Energy Association:

2. COMPANIES WILL FIGHT FOR BIGGEST WIND AND SOLAR TITLES

"The world's largest operating wind power project" will be a hotly contested designation this year: At least one new project may soon surpass FPL Energy's 736-megawatt (MW) Horse Hollow wind farm, which has been the world's largest for three years running.

With companies vying for the title of largest operating wind power project and largest solar project, you'd think that wind could start to supply more than the current 1 percent of US power -- and that solar would register somewhere, too. More stats from the AWEA:

Wind is now a mainstream option for new power generation, second only to natural gas plants in new capacity built from 2005 through 2007, and probably again in 2008, pending year-end figures. Measured by market share, wind provided 35% of all new generation added in the U.S. in 2007. And with 7,500 MW of new capacity expected when 2008 figures are released, wind is likely to contribute at least 35% of new capacity added this year.

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3. WE'LL FACE FACTS: A BORING REVOLUTION IS NEEDED

One problem is that with all of these bigger, bigger, bigger installations, the US will finally have to confront a crippling fact -- our energy infrastructure isn't up to snuff. I don't predict that the US will solve the problem, but it'll sure become evident.

Of course, T. Boone Pickens is a little more optimistic on this than I am.

4. POLITICIANS, HOWEVER, MIGHT NOT

Even TreeHugger is worried about the near future for green initiatives. With the financial system in so much trouble, it might become harder to use taxpayer dollars to accomplish much in the way of greening the economy. In TreeHugger's words:

The biggest setbacks, sadly, might be in sectors that have a big impact: Corporate investments in green, and political will.

When profits are falling and capital is hard to raise, companies simply don't invest as much in long-term green projects. Some money-saving efficiency investments might still happen, but R&D and investments with an uncertain or long return on investment might be scrapped.

On the state front, it's a lot harder to keep the environment on the radar during elections when everybody's concerned with the economy, and it's a lot harder to implement measures which would be more expensive (maybe not if you count "externalities", but that's still a harder sell) than alternatives because they are greener. Governments also tend to make really big promises when everything's going well and then quietly drop them or scale them back when things don't look as rosy.

OUR FAVORITE "SILVER LINING" PREDICTION

One of the most interesting predictions around the Web -- and the one we'll end with -- that the crippled economy will cause kids to play more in nature. You know, because their folks can't afford a Zune or a Wii. Or a house.

Make your own green predictions in the comments. Or, comment on these green predictions from last year -- or these 10 green wishes for 2009.

Comments

[beyobi]

We are accelerating towards the precipice and everyone is fighting over who gets to drive. A species to whom the natural order is something learned rather than felt is doomed to extinction­...and the sooner the better.

[sheila]

we all better pray that this "revolution" DOESN'T happen, or our entire planet will be killed for Big Energy profits. Wind kills 50 acres/MW, Big Solar kills 10 acres/MW (plus billions of gallons of water each year).

POINT OF USE SOLUTIONS are the REAL REVOLUTION. if we can stop the sad dependency and Stockholm Syndrome long enough to think for ourselves, we will realize that the wind and sun on OUR OWN PROPERTIES is going to waste, while our carbon absorbing, functioning ecosystems are being dynamited, bulldozed, poisoned, dehydrated and permanently blighted - far far away with Industrial Wind and Industrial Solar and Big Transmission - TOTAL SCAMS to re-centralize Big Energy profits in an era of sun and wind power.

what we NEED are incentives to property owners to build oversized generation on our homes, farms and businesses so that WE can capture the profits from those resources, instead of opening another vein to pay for someone else's infrastructure that is designed to permanently hijack us.

would you rather pay more or get paid? 40 nations including Germany Spain, Japan, Korea, and even Albania and Algeria - ALL PAY regular people for producing more clean power than we consume, which saves ratepayers thousands of dollars. IT'S ABOUT POLICY!!

Financing, subsidies and Feed in Tariffs should ALL be directed towards US, not Big Energy, which will have ancillary benefits of more conservation, more jobs, economic stimulus, better grid reliability, and a HEALTHY, not a DEAD planet.

[William1950]

right on... point of use generation­... is the answer, and perhaps it is good and apropriate that the economy is going south... point of use solutions need to be the focus, and that is NOT in the interests of big power, or big money.

[beyobi]

So to expand on your line of thinking we should stop using mass transit and only drive ourselves because large scale solutions don't work??? Where is all the material to produce these millions of redundant systems supposed to come from? How much energy will be spent to deliver and install these systems? Won't "BIG ENERGY" still profit from the manufacture of these systems or is everyone supposed to manufacture their own? The problem is numbers. 7 billion people is going to become 10 billion people by 2050 and NO ONE is talking about that.

[garbovatwins]

Do not look to the political leaders of your world to implement change that can lead to your survival as a species.

[cutandpost]

I agree...we as individuals need to make changes and we need to teach them to our children. We have about 40 years worth of known oil left and we desperately need to change our infrastructure and energy usage and control waste or else.

[rockyersocksoff]

But if we DON"T watch , and try to influence what our leaders do, they can implement policies that actually work AGAINST our survival.

Be a survivalist if you want, but don't neglect to participate.

No man is an island.

[mlaiuppa]

Urban farming will make a comeback. Look for replacing lawns with vegetable gardens. Fruit trees as landscaping. The Victory Garden will make a comeback only it will be renamed. Maybe Survival Garden or Eco or Green or something to make it appealing and disguise the fact that people need to start growing their own food to supplement what they can't afford to buy. Along with this look for people buying more "in season" cheaper fruits and vegetables. Also going local at Farmer's markets as opposed to chain stores as long as price and quality is competitive. Which it will be. Those that can will be installing rain barrels for harvesting.

[haljett]

Yeah, I'm hearing from a lot of various circles that green tech is going to be one of the better places of investment. Though frankly I'm very much worried that the US economy may be in for some very rough going. So much so that such tech won't save it. The green energy tech will have to be revolutionary in order to pull us out of the debt fire we're in.

I just finished watching the http://www.iousathemovie.com/ I.O. USA video and it scares me quite a bit as we go into the new year.

I think a lot of people are going to be turning toward saving money. And gold probably will be one of the modes to that end because I think the dollar will be toast. I see from http://www.learcapital.com/exactprice ExactPrice that gold is taking off after close today and is at 883.90 right now. Given it all I am beginning to wonder if Peter Schiff's prediction isn’t right about it going through the roof in ‘09. He claims $2,000 an ounce will likely be hit.

[cayuse]

My Green Prodiction:

Wind Farms and Solar equipment, transmission will be built with common folk money

Common Folk will buy Green Energy at higher Energy Cost

Common Folk will loose OPEN Space

Nature will provide the power for free for ever

Rich Energy Companies and Banks here and abroad will make all the money for ever

[iPolitics]

Green travel will hit it big. Eco-tourism has already become popular, but I think travelers will be going out of there way to be responsible tourists especially since travelers tend to be a bit to the left on social issues.

http://www.enduringwanderlust.com/green

[TJCole]

Industrial Hemp will become an issue as a real solution to provide us cheap energy and enhance our national security and give us energy independence that our corrupt politicians will deny Americans.­.!

[cayuse]

Energy Independence is an Israel Foreign Policy to keep money form the muslims.

I want clean renewable and self sustaining - GREEN ENERGY, cheap like you

But this is not happening, America is Privataizing GREEN ENERGY Profit and Nationalized Debt of of building and transporting it. The we pay for it a second time.

Hemp is good idea.

[BSERIUS]

The question most are worried about is HOW Damaging will enviro lunatics be to the economy?

[SayWhatYouWill]

An even better question to worry about: how damaging will the intellectually backwards and morally insecure wingnuts, clinging to their ignorance for soothing rationalizations, be to the economy?

[BSERIUS]

I basically said that above in less vitriolic phrases,,,,but you are right in your descriptions of the Climataphobes