Nate Silver: Why Are There No Black Senators?

When the House of Representatives convenes tomorrow, it will contain 39 African-American members, not including non-voting delegates in places like the Virgin Islands and the District of Columbia. This number, representing about 9 percent of the Congress, falls somewhat short of the fraction of African-Americans in the population as a whole -- a truly representative House would have about 55 black members -- but perhaps not dramatically so. The situation at first glance would appear to be much better than it was prior to 1990, when there were generally only about 20 black members in the House at any given time.

The districts these 39 Congressmen serve, however, are not very representative at all. All 39 contain a higher percentage of African-Americans than the population as a whole, ranging from Keith Ellison's district in Minneapolis, which is just barely more black than the national average, to Jesse Jackson Jr.'s on the South Side of Chicago, which is 68 percent African-American. About 64 percent of the members -- 25 of 39 -- come from districts that contain an outright black majority. The districts are also much more Democratic than the country as a whole, with an average PVI of D +25; only Sanford Bishop's district in Georgia, which has a PVI of D+2, is anywhere close to the national average.

Read the whole story here.

Comments

[1will]

Blacks in politics seem to run as Mayor of the black community or Senator for the black community. That seems to be their focus. Now that's great when you are running for mayor of a black city or State Senator from a black community but that focus will not get you elected by whites when running for national office. Let's be clear. You are not going to get the votes to gain national office without the votes of whites. That's why hell will freeze over before Jesse or Al ever see national office. I doubt if even Liberals believe their focus is on anything other than the black community.

[Aesthete]

In order to win elections in a bigger arena, one must break out of the political ghetto.

[jdmba]

But whites run as mayor or senate or president of the white community, so it is the category that they created by default.

[ishok]

I understand your points but I disagree. You infer that AAs can't or won't address this issue until they reach some level of equality..­. which may never happen. Especially if you do nothing to remedy or change the status quo.
AAs have no problem contributing tens of millions of their hard earned dollars to "Blessings Ministries" every Sunday that do nothing for them except pass it on and "put it in God's hand's". Meanwhile we never develop a system of influence over our elected officials and we wonder why systems are set against us, deny us or ignore us.

[Edmonsky]

This is a well researched, insightful article for the post racial era. The core import of this article is to show that the type of messaging central to winning state-wide election is different from the Congressional districs for African Americana. This observation is commonsensical.

Senator Obama said during the primaries and general election that he would win the nomination and president if he were to communicate his message to the American people. He pointed out that the main reason is because American people are decent and generous. But if he were to lose, it would be that he was not effective in communicating his message rather than because he is black.

You cannot win in the statewide or national election by appealing to white guilt. Most people find such tact very offensive and draws resentment from them. That is the lesson AA and minorities ought to learn from PE Obama.

[jdmba]

It's only a "post racial" era for those who have always been eager to ignore race because of their guilt. Your white guilt causes you to be easily offended by anything that calls attention to blackness. That's not our fault. We are not going to stop being Black people just because it makes you uncomfortable. We will only become "post racial" when people acknowledge and accept racial difference as valuable, rather than scary

[rockyb26]

here here

[Nepe]

Race does not make me uncomfortable. Why should I feel guilty about something I had no part of? I don't care if your black, white, red, yellow, blue, or green. If you can do the job then I will vote/hire you. Sure, we should realize the hardships of people not like ourselves, but we should also learn from them and move on. Being anti-white or anti-minority will only hinder our future. What PE Obama has shown us is that someone who is hardworking and intelligent can move up to the most respected position in the U.S. despite his skin color.

As for the senators not reflecting the diversity of the population, it's true. Instead of redistricting, maybe we should come up with a new system. Any suggestions?

[j0em0mma]

er, well, we just sent a black senator to the Administrative branch...

Quit muckraking, guys. There's something very, very serious happening in the Middle East right now. Maybe a primer in the history of that region starting with colonial rule is in order instead of this mindless hoohaw?

[MaximMaximus]

What an idiotic question. Get over this back & white obsession. Follow Obama's lead. Be better than the competition instead of seeking self entitlement because of your race! And welcome to the 21st century!

[Haditup2here]

I guess people like McNair (an engineer and astronaut), Ben Carson (successful Neurosurgeon), and Oprah Winfrey got to where they are because of "self-entitlement" since according to your argument that has been the mindset of most "black folks" before the 21st century.

"Get over this back & white obsession"

. . . . . . How about you get over yourself.

[MaximMaximus]

Why don't you try reading what I have posted earlier a bit more carefully. I was referring to those who couldn't get over the self-entitlement complex. Some surely did, and I do applaud them. In case you missed, I am as egalitarian as it gets. I am socially blind color, ethnicity etc -all the elements that unnecessarily divides us. Don't be so trigger happy.

[MaximMaximus]

Hadi-And I my opinion those persons whom you mentioned in your post achieved success because of their personal talent and hard work, and not through "special privileges" . So their success story is real.

[cdub1991]

The problem with "following Obama's lead" is that Obama is a political genius. This is tantamount to saying that a black candidate can't be the same as a white candidate but must succeed in politics by being a genius. I think the goal is a system where blacks and whites can run as equals, instead of the black candidate having to be twice as good as the white one to be taken seriously.

It's the 21st century, but thing haven't changed that much. Not yet. Give it another 30 years or so.

[rockyb26]

the other problem with obama's lead is that he's very different than most american blacks. for starters, he's half white. born and raised in hawaii. lived abroad in indonesia. attended ivy league schools, etc. if you compare him to other black politicians, you can see why whites see him as less scary. he's the poster child for personal responsibility and the limitless possibilities one is afforded with a good education. they really do believe he's a magic ne g ro.

[MaximMaximus]

If you're looking for excuses you will find them anywhere and in any number. And this tendency of yours will set you back. I'd suggest you get over your "I am handicapped, I need special privileges" complex. It won't do you any good. President-elect Obama is surely a unique person but his mindset is about what you should be inspired.

[Rog49Thomas]

There are several answers to this question.

Based on what I read in the MSM, it seems that one possible explanation is that since President Neo was elected we entered a post racial society and there are no "black" or "white" people any more.

[missjasmine]

the last popular black senator became the president elect, damn it will the b.s. never end?

[rainbowblue]

I'm really confused. How does gerrmandering affect Senate elections? Senators are elected by the whole state. This article was complete political science nonsense. What does the composition of the House have to do with the Senate? There was no logical connection, one can not say that a state is like a congressional district--there are too many differences.

What needs to be better addressed is the incumbency advantage. It's hard for any minority group, let alone African Americans to raise enough money to compete with a long term incumbent. Added to the money factor is the long term length. That alone tends to stabilize the incumbent's popularity as mistakes can be forgiven (or forgotten) over time.

Of course one cannot rule out racisim; however Obama proves that it can be overcomed. The best bet for any minority canidate, including an African American one, is too expand one's image around the whole state. A senator cannot count on being elected from just the most populous cities, and besides there is usually a resentment from rural areas over urban politicians.

[sbmulqueen]

If you read the whole, original article by Silver it makes more sense. The gist is that gerrymandering produces almost segregated representatives - very liberal, or in black neighborhoods, etc. - that produce candidates who are then 'unacceptable' in the statewide senate race.

[Tanyars5]

you are correct...­....

[Beachrunner]

Because racist Harry Reid won't seat Burris, that's why.

[Toker]

Nope. It's because there hasn't been any elected.

[tomk2434]

most americans are racist

most americans who think they aren't racist show more signs of fear around blacks.

politics is marketing, so republicans can subconsciously use the fear of blacks in the heads of self declared non-racists to manipulate them into voting against their interests.

another edition of easy answers to obvious questions.

[b alvarez]

Indeed

[Tanyars5]

Why are there not any black senators?????
Lets ask Harry Reid the guy who really showed his true colors when he calls up Blago and tells him not to seat 3 black men to BO's seat. Two white women should be considered before the unelectable black men.
Funny how this sort of racism is not revealed until someone gets caught doing something illegal.
Why people are not upset with this racism? This is the big story in all of this Blago crap.
Democrats are racist just like republican­s.........­...

[Tanyars5]

you got that right

[Pastprologue]

Well, at least we know you are.

[tomk2434]

i'm racist?

probably if you hooked me up to scanning machines I would be more nervous on martin luther king jr way. science tells us most people have these reactions at an unconscious level. It's probably arrogant to assume I don't have them because I'm aware of the science around them. I don't intentionally mean to be racist.

Does talking about the science around racism makes me a racist? lets all stick are heads in the sand as to the science of this situation and just pretend we aren't racist when the evidence shows otherwise. that'll make it better.

[rockyb26]

yep.

[apoyo]

Obama did it. Follow his lead. That goes for all people of color.

Remember the Boston Tea Party: No taxation without representation.

[Freedomscap]

Sticks and stones may break my bones, but names will never hurt me.

[rockyb26]

obama is half white. i know alot of white people who took comfort in that fact and felt more inclined to vote for him because of it. had he not been half white, or was as dark as michelle, it wouldn't have been as easy. it's sad, but very true.

[1will]

George Soros is only buying white senators right now but sooner or later he'll buy some black ones.

[Tanyars5]

Gerry madndering and redistricting has gone on forever. Is this news? Don't we know why there are not any black senators? Institutionalized racism has existed forever in this country. Nate Silver is a smart man. This type of article is frustrating to me because it is asking a question about a problem that has existed in the United States forever. Look at all of the racists comments it illicits. Is this type of stuff black people will have to put up with for the next 4 years?

[Pastprologue]

Blacks will need to face their own racism first.

[Tanyars5]

go get an education

[Haditup2here]

Based on that comment, how about you start with yours.

BTW. . . it is racist to classify a group (in this case a race of people) as having the same characteristics, flaws, or ideas

*** Pastdonkey­-asinine**­* "formerly Known as: Pastprologue

[Haditup2here]

Based on that comment, how about you start with yours.

BTW. . . it is prejudice to classify a group (in this case a race) as having the same characteristics, flaws, or ideas

*** Pastasinine*** "formerly Known as: Pastprologue

[rockyb26]

so you want the people with the most grievances to start handing out olive branches? i don't think so. the sooner we realize that all races of people hold somewhat prejudicial views about other races of people, the closer we'll come to really tackling the race issue in this country.

[cdub1991]

Nothing wrong with trying to fully understand a phenomenon. Also, it helps to reframe it sometimes. There are some people for whom the entire issue makes more sense if you show the math. That's just the way their minds work.

[SethBLiNK]

Judging from the comments, many people are reading the headline of this post and not the very interesting article behind it.

The lack of AA Governors and Senators points shows us that it is difficult for a minority to win election in when the majority of voters do not share his or her ethnicity. However, while it may be difficult, the election of Barack Obama shows that it is certainly not impossible.

One of the points of the article is that gerrymandering of districts was a two-edged sword. It increased the number of African Americans in congress, but also produced conditions that made it difficult to roll those improvements into statewide elections.

There is no way to duplicate that for entire states, and even if there were it may not be desirable. Case in point... before Barack Obama won the Presidency or the Senate, he ran for congress against Bobby Rush... and lost. The same factors that made it hard for Obama to beat Rush make it difficult for Rush to ever consider statewide office.

The current and next generation of black political leaders must decide if they are going to follow the Rush approach, which might make it easier for them to win a seat in Congress, or the Obama approach which opens up a world of opportunities beyond congress.

[Freedomscap]

A conflagration of factors/variables came together to allow Obama to win the presidency. Happenstance, possibly. Will it happen again, who knows.

Nonetheless, your post is good and it is obvious you read the piece, unlike many of the other posters.

[cdub1991]

Gerrymandering is a powerful and double-edged sword, as you say. For instance, after Obama lost to Rush, he helped engineer the creation of a district in Grant Park that was more demographically suitable for him. If that had not happened, would there e a P.E. Obama now? Don't know.

[Mnemanth]

1. If you want an office, you gotta run for it...
2. If you want to run for it, you better have some kind of positive credentials (education, community involvemen­t)...
3. Money's easy to come by, if you've got a core of supporters. Garnering supporters involves beating the streets, getting involved, and indicating that you understand everyone's issues, needs, and desires...
4. Sorry, we're not "affirmative action"-ing government representation. If you think your representative is incapable of the job because of skin color or gender, maybe You need to look at your priorities.

[b alvarez]

Affirmative Action benefits White women, more than any other group of people. Check the facts and statistics, before you type nonsense.

http://aapf.org/focus/episodes/oct30.php

[Tanyars5]

agree