Iran's Poor Economy Could Lead To Breakthrough In Nuclear Dispute: Chatham House Report

Iran's economic and political weaknesses could provide the catalyst for a breakthrough in the nuclear dispute, says a new Chatham House report compiled by the former UK ambassador to Iran, Sir Richard Dalton.

Iran's domestic politics, its energy industry and its regional power may not be strong enough for the Iranian leadership to resist international demands for a serious negotiation over its nuclear programme. Despite the triumphalist rhetoric, the economy remains Iran's Achilles' heel.

Read the whole story here.

Comments

[PSM42]

Isr. ael and the US are in the grip of such psychological delusions that they are like two psyc hopaths in a lun. atic asylum who believe that they are friends, as each seeks advantage from the other, and over the other. While the small countries of the region and all countries of the rest of the world wonder why the attendants do not return to answer the alarm bell that has been ringing for decades.

Given that the U.S. continues to act as a mur. der. ous lun. atic, with 10,000 nu. clear wea. pons, and Isr. ael acts as a mur. derous lun. atic, with 200 nu. clear wea. pons, it would seem most imperative to remove The Button from each patient before they lose their marbles completely. While, laughably, the two patients each claim to be most concerned about a third patient who has no nu. clear wea. pons. In their par. anoid fantasies of mu. rde. rer's guilt each sees their own mu. rde. rous intent in this third patient. There is no one to explain "psychological projection" to them and no guarantee that they are in any way sane enough to understand it.

etc. http://www.thenation.com/bletters/20090112/shawn

[Hirnlego]

This has nothing to do with nukes but everything to sell another war.
No evidence has been produced from any direction about any nuclear weapons program and iran has the right to build nuclear technology for energy, which president ford tried to give them in the mid seventies.

[themodernleader]

Governments must coordinate the education and economic opportunities for its citizens if economic systems are to develop and flourish.
The government that interferes in naturally competitive enterprise, except to guarantee its fairness, is hindering the system. The government that permits naturally monopolistic economic enterprise to be given a free hand to set prices and destroy similiarly mandated organizations will create a monstrosity that corrupts the governing and governed alike.
Education that teaches the traditional truths and values and denies the truths of science and data of the human condition is a system that educates citizens ill equipped to transform society through modern manufacturing and commerce. Traditional ideologies and business beliefs are an enemy to modern organization and a better life for its citizens.

[Kache]

OK, you described why I would not raise a child in Kansas. Your point was?????

[Fein]

This is the best news of the new year!

There's no doubt that Obama will achieve the goal of denuclearizing Iran. What an excellent opportunity for the President elect.

Fortunately, the Nocon/Morons aren't in a position to screw this up with jingoistic blunder.

[steamboat]

Fein, don't count on it..............Did the fact that NKorea was dirt-poor and 3 million people starved to death keep them from developing a nuclear weapon? Well, did it? Sorry, but sometimes these do-goodies have to realize other people don't think like us.

[Hass]

Think like us? If you were in N. Korea's position, you'd develop nukes too.

[PSM42]

The US 2007 NIE says you don't have to do anything, because Iran is NOT pursuing them. So cool your jets.

[philosopherkingtomas]

no worse than Pakistan, Israel, South Korea and north, India etc. all self centered and dangerous !

[WmC]

Ironically, Iran signaled a willingness to: 1)recognize Israel 2) discontinue uranium enrichment 3) discontinue funding of terrorism, but Cheney and Rice rebuffed their offer.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/17/AR2006061700727.html

The one real opportunity to make the invasion of Iraq worthwhile. . .and they blew it.

[wadenelson1]

Wow. That's a good read. Bushco x'd up once again, blowing a golden opportunity.

[PSM42]

It was Bon. kers "Pum. phead." Che. ney who sent the Swiss diplomat bearing Iran's offer away with a flea in his ear. "Sock Puppet" had nothing to do with it.

Somebody with an interest in the future of this country should have googled the following. Particularly after the Bar. ksd. ale Nu. kes fiasco. http://heartdisease.about.com/cs/bypasssurgery/a/pumphead.htm

[steamboat]

They also said they were going to wipe Israel off the map. Did they not?

[MajorKong]

The Iranian President has also said "Iran is a threat to no other country, including the Zionist entity".

Of course, I'm only supposed to believe him when he says something which helps our case for attacking Iran, which we wanted to do long before he even became President.

[Hirnlego]

Doesn't matter what Ahme says... he cannot and does not have to power to wipe out any country of the map.
And I do believe that he was compering zionism to communism.. communism which as we know didn't require that the country was bombed to smithereens.. it died on its own. To the pages of history.

[Hass]

No, they did not. On the other hand, Israel IS IN FACT wiping Palestine off the map, and Bush did in fact explicitly threaten Iran with nuclear first strikes (a war crime)

[Discipulus04]

......Tehran has made several attempts in recent years to improve relations with Washington and settle outstanding differences, but Israel and its American supporters have been able to stymie any détente between Iran and the United States, and to keep the two countries far apart. Another example is the Bush administration"s behavior during Israel"s war against Lebanon in the summer of 2006. Almost every country in the world harshly criticized Israel"s bombing campaign"a campaign that killed more than one thousand Lebanese, most of them civilians"but the United States did not. Instead, it helped Israel prosecute the war, with prominent members of both political parties openly defending Israel"s behavior. This unequivocal support for Israel undermined the pro-American government in Beirut, strengthened Hezbollah, and drove Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah closer together, results that were hardly good for either Washington or Jerusalem.
-John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt (The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy)

[walk0nwalls]

Yeah it'll be interesting to see how the Ayatollah deals with steadily increasing unemployment and a ever increasingly vocal, active, and discontented youthful movement.

[steamboat]

With force

[MajorKong]

Ah, come on. You're not so different. You know you always wanted to bash the heads of some damn dirty hippie protesters.

[Hass]

We've been hearing about how Iran's economy will cause the fall of the regime for over 20 years now. Actually, the Iranian economy has been growing at an average of 5.8 percent.

[Deparis]

Wishful thinking?

[Hass]

Incidentally, its not at all clear that Iran's economy is doing so badly.

Here are some facts from "Is Iran Facing an Economic Crisis?" by Kelly Campbell. U.S. Institute of Peace, May 2007:


The belief that Iran suffers from dire economic conditions is one of four myths circulating about Iran's macroeconomic performance. Iran's economy has actually performed well in aggregate terms, with a moderate rate of growth in the last ten to fifteen years, including healthy GDP and per capita growth in investment. In the last three years, Iran's actual growth rate has averaged 5.8 percent. ..

[PSM42]

Apparently Iran has foreign currency reserves to survive without exporting oil for ONE YEAR. http://www.iprd.org.uk/images/stories/pdf/the%20iran%20threat.pdf

The best source on WHY for 9. 11, 7. /7, Afg. hanistan and Ir. aq is ... Nafeez Mossadeq Ahmed, from London. http://www.iprd.org.uk/

[Hass]

So lets see now -- the fact that oil prices are low will somehow convince Iran to give up access to nuclear energy, the only reliable alternative to oil? LOL!!!!!

[jake106]

Oil is the backbone of the Iranian economy. It is almost the ONLY export that Iran has. When oil was high, they were in a very strong position to be pushy. They had the money they needed to do what they want. However, when the oil prices drop as low as they have, Iran's financial capital dissapears. Worse, for Iran anyhow, is the report that their oils reserves are running low. When staring at the light at the end of the tunnel, Iran knows they will either have to make a technology breakthrough on their own right now, or come to terms with the rest of the world's demands soon.

[Hass]

Since oil exports form the backbone of the economy ALL THE MORE REASON TO DEVELOP NUCLEAR POWER so as to export more oil.

That's the whole reason why Iran started to develop its nuclear program in the first place --- it started under the Shah, incidentally, with the full support and participation of the United States -- because IT MAKES ECONOMIC SENSE.

[iblisexpat]

The report does not in any way state what the headline reads. this is a month-old report. I concur with the Kache comment above. The entire world is suffering from economic downturn and Iran is also affected but it will NOT change its stand on the nuclear issue. It is a matter of national pride.

The British, including many of their scholars (remember Bernard Lewis?) are colonialist at heart and tricky at best.

[Kache]

This article is a fine example of navel gazing. The world does not operate on our concerns, no matter how deep our concerns are. All politics are local.

The downturn in the Iranian economy is not going to change Iran's stance on nuclear power. But, it will have an effect on the Iranian Presidential elections in June, and the probabliity of a change of Presidents will change Iran's stance on nuclear power.