To Arm The Afghan Tribes Or Not? Let's Start With An Evidence-Based Approach

One of the presumed parts of Obama's Afghan strategy will be to look at ways of coopting the country's various tribes, much like General David Petraeus did it in Iraq. The idea has sparked off a torrent of criticism in the foreign policy community.

One of the smartest young Democratic things, Brookings security expert Vanda Felbab-Brown, wrote to Obama that his administration should cultivate Afghan tribal leaders, but it would be a mistake to expect them to play a military role in the counterinsurgency. Michael Williams, the US-born British academic spoke for many when he called the idea "a very high-risk strategy that cuts directly against counter-insurgency theory and will most likely be seen in hindsight as a serious mistake."

Read the whole story here.

Comments

[devanate]

Isn't that what brought the Taliban and Al'qaeda to power in the first place?

[lynjs]

The last thing these guys need to be is armed hence Israel, Afghanistan, Iraq and every other country we give arms to. Let these folk make their own weapons and train their own soldiers.

It is quite funny that we can't find bin Laden. The CIA trained him. Now that cute idea has come back to haunt us. Let them fend for themselves when it comes to military and self-defense.

[Ergon]

As someone who's familiar with the region, the problem's not that they've too few weapons, imho. Quite the contrary.

[The Hedonistic Pleasureseeker]

How about let's not arm anyone? OR, howbout this? Let's arm and train the women instead. Maybe then there would be justice in this world.

[AliMB]

As this article correctly points out, "the strategy of working with the tribes" is based on "speculation and hunches" rather than on empirical research. unfortunately, such research would be dangerously lengthy, insufficient, and maybe even in practical... we are dealing with tribal politics and military issues, not collecting Infant mortality rates. There is plenty of evidence to suggest that a "surge" strategy repeat in afghanistan will work (obviously, with important nuances because iraq and afghanistan are very different, as Mr. Korski points out). the basics of counterinsurgency remain the same... aiding key afghan tribes is the best way to enfranchize the local powerbrokers who play the largest role in determining the security situation, just like it did in Anbar Province in Iraq. Yes, AQI and the Taliban are different movements, put one thing remains the same: the lure of power... and the self determination that comes from it. Facilitate the ability for the tribes to fight against the taliban's power, while simultaneously demonstrating Western resolve to back them up with an increased troop presence (surge). The latter cannot be underestimated. There is an excellent that book called "the strongest tribe" that demonstrates how being out with the people (not conducting sporadic patrols) can converse the fight. But surely mr. korski has many reasons for pesimissm... there will be no perfect or easy solution

[Kache]

This article overlooks the fact that Anbar tribes were begging the US Marines as early as 2005 to quit disarming them, leaving them unable to resist Al Qaeda.

[Bush-Rolled]

Schools, hospitals, medicines, housing. All these could be supplied as non-military aid that could have a very beneficial effect and little risk of blow-back.

[AliMB]

humanitarian and reconstruction aid does not have to mutually exclusive to military aid... a combinaton of the two could help to foment relations with key tribes

[jake106]

Indeed, a combination of both forms of aid would allow the tribes to protect the schools, hospitals, medicines, housing and other forms of non-military aid that we supply. Elsewise, you would see exactly what we were seeing in Iraq; the militants would blow up the infrastructure before we could even finish building it.

[uglicoyote]

Isn't arming the Afghan tribes during the Reagan years where all of this stuff started?

[Kache]

Actually that started with Carter. The Soviets invaded to thwart Carter's sccess at radicalizing the fundamentalists.

[FR]

NOT.

[wadenelson1]

Any weapons supplied to ANY Tribe in the MIddle East will eventually be pointed back at US Soldiers.

Sell the the guns AFTER we get out.