Economic Crisis Is No. 1 Security Issue: New Intelligence Chief
WASHINGTON — The governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan are losing ground to insurgents and terrorists but the most immediate threat to U.S. security interests is the festering global economic crisis, the nation's top intelligence official told Congress on Thursday.
The security situations of Afghanistan and Pakistan, where al-Qaida leadership continues to plan attacks against the United States, are inextricably linked, said National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair in his first annual threat briefing since being confirmed two weeks ago.
"No improvement is possible in Afghanistan without Pakistan taking control of its border areas," Blair said.
But both governments have lost ground to militants_ the Afghans in the south, east and northwest, including in cities and villages where the Taliban was once routed, and the Pakistanis in the north and west.
The governments themselves are largely to blame, Blair said. Neither has addressed the corruption, mounting economic hardships, humanitarian conditions and lack of basic services that make the areas fertile grounds for militants.
His comments point to one of the most troubling aspects of U.S. national security. The most dire physical threats emanate from the border area between the two countries, but there is little the United States can do directly to address the root causes of extremism.
But Blair said there has been progress made against al-Qaida: four top leaders were killed in Pakistan's tribal areas the last year and they were replaced by much more junior figures with less experience and influence.
The organization is far from beaten, Blair said. It remains the greatest direct threat to the United States.
Blair said the U.S. has little insight into al-Qaida's planned attacks, and noted that recruitment of Westerners since 2006 for al-Qaida training in the tribal area makes detection of potential terrorists even more difficult. Attacks against U.S. interests in East Africa are likely in the next year.
Blair's remarks reflect both the depth of the unfolding recession and the Obama administration's more expansive definition of national security. Blair warned of the potential threats that could flow from global climate change; coming struggles for energy resources, food and water from an exploding population; and the threat to U.S. information networks from hackers.
He said most attacks on U.S. networks originate from internet addresses in Russia and China. The capabilities reside in both the military and civilian realms. He demurred answering whether the Russian government cooperates with organized crime hacker networks to launch attacks.
Senate Intelligence Committee Chairwoman Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., said the committee plans to increase its focus on threats to U.S. computer networks.
Iran continues making progress toward having a nuclear weapon and could have one as soon as next year, Blair said.
"If Iran pursued its centrifuge uranium technology, they could have a weapon as early as 2010, but it might take them until 2015," he said.
Iran last week launched its first small satellite with a multistage rocket, technology that could be used to make a long-range weapon.
"If they put resources on it they can make a serious missile program," Blair said, adding that Iran is making ground on "developing all its components of a deliverable nuclear weapon program."
That weapon is not inevitable, he said, if the international community can put together a package of incentives and security guarantees that would dissuade Iran.
Blair also said Russia is growing more bold, actively cultivating independent relationship with China, Venezuela and Iran, and trying to maintain control over energy networks to Europe and East Asia.
Blair's 49-page written remarks, however, focused first on what he said the most pressing immediate threat to the United States: the economic crisis.
His statement was a marked departure from threat briefings of years past, which focused on more traditional notions of national security worries.
He warned the Senate Intelligence Committee that if the economic crisis lasts more than two years, already unstable governments could topple. And a number of allies the United States depends on might no longer be able to afford to meet their own defense and humanitarian obligations, he said.
"Time is probably our greatest threat. The longer it takes for the recovery to begin, the greater the likelihood of serious damage to U.S. strategic interests," he told the Senate Intelligence Committee, as Congress prepares to vote Friday on a $789 billion stimulus package.
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PAMELA HESS | February 12, 2009 07:30 PM EST |
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