What If We Hadn't Cut Back On CFCs? A Scary World

WASHINGTON — Here's rare good news about an environmental crisis: We dodged disaster with the ozone layer. A NASA study about ozone-munching chemicals from aerosol sprays and refrigeration used a computer model to play a game of what-if. What if the world 22 years ago didn't agree to cut back on chlorofluorocarbons which cause a seasonal ozone hole to form near the South Pole?

NASA atmospheric scientist Paul Newman said the answer is a "bizarre world."

By 2065, two-thirds of the protective ozone layer would have vanished and "the ozone hole covers the Earth." And the CFCs, which are long-lived potent greenhouse gases, would have pushed the world's temperature up an extra 4 degrees.

In mid-latitudes like Washington, DNA-damaging ultraviolet radiation would have increased more than sixfold. Just 5 minutes in the summer sunshine would have caused a sunburn, instead of 15. Typical midsummer UV levels, now around 10 or 11, would have soared to 30. Summer thunderstorms in the Northern Hemisphere would have been much stronger.

"It is a real horrible place," Newman told The Associated Press.

But that dreadful scenario was "a world avoided," according to the paper published this week in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

After scientists raised warnings in the early 1970s _ later earning a Nobel Prize _ 193 nations agreed in the1987 treaty called the Montreal Protocol to cut CFC emissions. CFCs had been used in air conditioning, aerosol sprays, foam packaging and other products.

Newman, the co-chair of the protocol's scientific panel, said the study provides hope that the world can do the same thing on another looming but even harder to solve environmental problem: Global warming.

"There's a huge lesson to be learned here," said Paul Wapner, director of Global Environmental Politics at American University. "In significant cases, human beings can get together and arrive at international or global principles and avoid ecological catastrophe."

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On the Net:

NASA's ozone study: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/world_avoided.html

The United Nations' ozone page: http://ozone.unep.org/

Comments

[jacobomorales]

An excellent article. The same holds true for The Species Act and all other programs to save the world we live in.

[mamacat]

We listened to the scientists, cut back on CFCs, and avoided one disaster. The lesson is clear and simple - listen to the scientists, they are worth listening to.

[valkyrie607]

The attitudes evinced by Howcome and Dgscol are ridiculous on their face. First, it is well-documented that CFCs did play a major role in creating the hole in the ozone layer. This documentation is further supported by the fact that since CFCs have been banned, the size of the hole has decreased.

Their belief--that humans aren't powerful enough to have an effect on the ozone layer--is dangerous. Seven billion humans doing any one thing will have a powerful effect, period. Why deny our own power?

The only reason I can think of is that it serves a lazy and selfish desire to avoid thinking about the consequences of our collective actions. It also justifies maintaining one's individual comfort level, even at the expense of billions of other people. Claiming that humans couldn't possibly affect the ozone layer, or the atmosphere, or the oceans, or whatever, provides a useful psychological defense against getting off one's arse and working to make the world a better place. It's understandable--these problems are so big, they can be overwhelming--but it's still despicable. Especially since the case with the ozone layer shows that with collective action, we can have a positive effect on our environment.

[mamacat]

There is a phenomenon of people going onto blogs with no intention of having an honest conversation. The trouble is, deciding when someone is sincere, and when they are just seeking attention.

[howcome]

As has been proven , CFCs were neglible at best..... Remember eliminating DDT? well thanks to that activism , Malaria and Cholera and all sorts of killer diseases are on the rise in third world nations, and are coming to the west as well

[valkyrie607]

Really, this has been proven? Please provide the links, I would love to tell my environmental science professors about this revolution in scientific understanding.

Your comment about DDT is not relevant. Eliminating DDT may be contributing to the rise of some insect-borne diseases, but that does not negate the fact that the impacts of over-using DDT are disastrous.

[dgscol]

After the hair spray and refrigerants were taken off the market ... the ozone hole increased in size.
This demonstrated the clear lack of understanding that existed about the dynamics of the hole and ozone generation. This scare was based on 1 year of jet flights that did air sampling (measuring ozone).

Manmade CFC probably have played some role; common sense would tell you, a minor role.

[valkyrie607]

Hmm... I wonder if that continued increase was due to the fact that the discontinuation of CFC production did not result in the immediate removal of all CFCs from the atmosphere? CFCs have a lifetime, you know, it takes time for them to break down.

Furthermore, if your hypothesis that human emissions of CFCs was so inconsequential, and the ozone hole was just a "scare," then what's your explanation of the subsequent reduction in the size of the ozone hole?

And to a larger scientific/philosophical question: can humans use any natural system as a sink for human-generated waste, indefinitely, without destabilizing that system? In other words, do you know of any natural systems (atmosphere, oceans, rivers, soil, etc.) that would be completely immune to any actions by humans?

[LMPE]

Shall I assume that CFCs caused that hairdo in the photo?

[valkyrie607]

But humans are so puny, and the ozone layers is so vast! How could WE possibly ever affect the ozone layer??

Oh wait...

[howcome]

actually we didn't see the comment two above......

[Greenguy25]

Why are we still debating climate change issues, this is a good example of worldwide cooperation, just like that of eliminating acid rain from lead and mercury. We know its happening, we know we need to work together, so what are we doing.

We are starting with environmental audits to help small businesses find their place in the new climate era and we need auditors in every corner of the country.

http://www.greensceneems.com

[conlawprize]

global warming is looking SO unlikely these days

[BlueGreen55]

Why? Because it isn't 90 degrees where you are this moment?