Murphy Takes Lead Over Tedisco For First Time In New Poll

With less than a week to go before a special election to fill a vacant House seat in upstate New York, Democratic candidate Scott Murphy has surged to a four-point lead over his opponent, Republican Jim Tedisco, according to a new poll.

Murphy, ahead 47-43 among likely voters, has steadily gained on Tedisco as the election nears, reversing a 12 point deficit from just a month back. After a poll two weeks ago showed Tedisco's lead had dwindled to four, the New York assemblyman attempted to wrest control of his ad content from the national GOP, which continued running attack ads anyway.

Those ads may have cost Tedisco his lead, as today's poll by the Siena Research Institute says likely voters considered Tedisco's campaign "more negative" by a 44-25 margin. That negativity comes in the form of an effort to portray Murphy as a Wall Street fat-cat. (In a recent debate, Tedisco subtly jabbed Murphy by proclaiming "I'm not a millionaire" -- even though he probably is).

Tedisco's campaign downplayed the Siena poll, saying internal polling from both campaigns still has Tedisco in the lead by two or three points.

"Heading into Election Day, our campaign's internal polling shows us continuing to lead, just as we have for this entire race," said Tedisco in a statement. "Today's Siena poll is simply another in a line of polls that show this race within the margin of error."

The March 31 election will fill the House seat vacated by Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, who was appointed to fill Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's empty Senate seat.

Comments

[RevRick]

Spent the morning knocking on doors for Scott Murphy. Hit 51 houses.

Came home and saw this, what a great way to end a day of volunteering.

[Mugzi]

"But if I can't use negative ads, I have nothing to run on..."

[deb813]

I am not voting because I'm not very fond of Murphy either, but tedisco is and always has been a negative character. Thought he was nasty and had a big mouth to begin with still think so. I detest Patterson so am hoping Murphy wins so Tedisco can use his big mouth and nastiness against Patterson.

[eva belle]

You can't just hope, remember? Hold your nose and go vote for Murphy please.

[jmby]

Vote for Pete's sake. Have the last eight years taught you nothing?

[Doofus]

What part of 'Hopefully, voters will know what to do on Tuesday' do you not understand?

[denicci1977]

???????????????????/Ok so you're not voting because you don't like them both, but you ARE hoping Murphy wins ? Makes no sense. Just when I think we the American voters have finally come so far :( Please get out and vote.

[hortonhearsawho2]

1 trillion, thats our final offer...

[Doofus]

According to the Sienna (College) poll: ' As the special election in the 20th C.D. enters the final
weekend, Democrat Scott Murphy has reversed a four-point deficit and turned it into a four-point
lead over Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco. Murphy leads 47-43 percent,
having trailed two weeks ago by a 45-41 percent margin, according to a new Siena (College)
Research Institute poll of likely voters. Tedisco’s campaign is viewed by voters as more
negative by a 44-25 percent margin, while Murphy’s campaign is seen as more positive.
Regardless of who they are supporting, by a 45-35 percent margin, voters think Tedisco
will win the election. ' ...

The election is this coming Tuesday. There are only 3 Repos in the NY delegation these days.
Why make it four? The 20th district, though said to be 'conservative', has had only 3 Republican
reps since 1937. Hopefully, voters will know what to do on Tuesday. Tedisco won't win
if they don't vote for him. Murphy has a fighting chance, after a good comeback.

[DinkSinger]

While I share your hope for a Democratic victory on Tuesday, looking at the history of the 20th District is misleading because it has moved around a lot. None of the current geographic area was part of the district before 2003. From at least 1913 until 1983 the district was located in New York City and from 1983 until 2003, in the northern suburbs of the city. Since the district was relocated in 2003, it has elected a conservative Republican to two terms and a conservative (Blue Dog) Democrat, Gillibrand, to two terms.

From 1953 until Gillibrand's election, the core of the geographic area now included in the 20th had been represented by only one Democrat, for two terms. For twenty years it was represented by Republican Gerald Solomon, who chaired the House Rules Committee during the Clinton years.

[Doofus]

I know that's true, but it doesn't cost much to be optimistic anyway. In
the 'history' of the 'Fightin' 20th', there still have only been 3 Repo reps!

[trumpetman]

You know that Obama won this district in the election. So if he could do it then scott murphy can win.

[fdavidm]

Scott Murphy needs a final push to victory. Can't Michael Steel be persuaded to campaign for Tedisco?

[kevingiampa]

The GOP attacks against Murphy are at once comical and frightening. The attack ads demonstrate what's wrong with the GOP come every election (and most of the other time)- they treat voters like we're idiots. They actually have an attack ad that says, as a business owner, Scott Murphy gave out bonuses to his employees: you know who else gave out bonuses (wink, wink) AIG (?). Does the GOP think people actually have a problem with bonuses? Any bonuses? This is an argument a six year-old would think is stupid. Not sure he will, but Tedisco and the GOP deserve to lose this race.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pSb3OigU0k

[stonelaw]

Tedisco needs help - he needs to shake things up - he needs the maverick among mavericks, he needs . . . Sarah Palin!

"If you dress her, she WILL come!"

[garystartswithg]

i agree completely -- with sarah palin at your side riling up senior citizens and all the real americans over the obvious muslim/gay/ socialist agenda that is destroying our country you can get just about anywhere.

[felinetta]

Maybe she could bring her "prop" children too! You betcha!

[hortonhearsawho2]

yeah, but if she, um, c.....will there be a new palin nine months later...

[AnalyzeIT]

Well "duh" once again the people speak out against the negative. Re-Pubs did not learn anything from the last presidential election. Even when they try to be nice we can see through them.....simply because we know they are lying and will NOT change.

Get it and get it now - we do not want you.

[felinetta]

Of course Repubs didn't learn anything. If I didn't know better, I would think they were a Monty Python-type party.They're certainly not a smart party! Four of their candidates didn't believe in evolution.They are anit-science and anti-intellectual - smart people threaten them! When you hear Palin and Steele saying God tellls them what to do, the absurdity is frightening. And what about Jindal doing an exorcism ?Then we hear Steele, saying he planned the argument with Rush. And what about these other smart things:1)we get to see the 19 page "budget" 2) we hear them complain aboua Obama's teleprompter 3) we hear them complain about what Obama wears in the Oval office (they can't even check out Bush on Google before that stupidity 4)Tucker Bounds calls the town hall meeting a gimmick. Talking to the American people is a gimmick?As Cheney would say "simply stated," this is anti-American.

This is a national part?. I have yet to see one smart Repub. They don't have any. So we can expect more stupid stuff from them every day. Maybe it's not their fault, they're just nott that bright. Solution: "zip it." Let the smart grown-ups run our country.

BTW I watched a You Tube video with a Tedisco "bushism. He said, "my name may be Jim, but I'm no Johnny come lately." I've asked people if I"m missing something. So far no once can figure out what he was talking about.!

[Maezeppa]

That's great - to be up and have the momentum with you going into the last weekend is as good as it gets. No wonder all the Republican talking heads were on the air yesterday saying a Tedesco loss wouldn't be significant.

[bygollymissmolly]

Wow, that's awesome. And proof positive what grass-roots organizing can accomplish. Imagine going from a 20 point deficit to a 4 point lead.

[Kalel]

Listening to Limbaugh he made it sound like this election would signal the republican renaissance. I'm sure he'll blame a left wing conspiracy on their failure to win in NY.

[wordvarc]

The rovian GOP blitzkrieg that buried our economy, alienated ourselves from the world, and polarized Americans. Their mantra is fear and greed. RNC funded candidates are required to force this backwards 'politic.' The junior 'representatives' like Bachman, Coleman, Palin, and this Tedesco are financially rewarded for repeatedly spewing rovian venom.

Fortunately, "We the people" have experienced and now recognize their fear mongering as the same self serving, arrogant, and elitist rhetoric used by the financial industry leaders who demand million dollar bonuses and massive welfare for their companies despite the dismal failure of their enterprises.

[labman]

Tedisco is running because of the Republican majority in the district. He forgot that people have noticed his obstructionist tactics from the past, and now are rejecting him. If he loses the election, he'll have to go back to the 110th assembly district and explain why he said he only cares about the 20th congressional district. That should provide for some entertaining tap-dancing.

[ilovemycat]

Does this surprise anyone? The GOP are losers!!

[Hank10303]

Scott Murphy - you have just been made the example of what the democratic friends of President Obama can and will expect in future elections. To the conservaDems that recently voiced their independence from party lines. I applaud your goals and I suggest joining the President in his efforts to stabilize and correct the path this country is moving on. That is unless you think you can win if he were to endorse an opposing democrat. Because if he is successful you will have unprecedented political power.