Poll numbers out on Thursday provide another bad chapter in what has become an awful few months for Sen. Chris Dodd. The long-serving Connecticut Democrat woke this morning to find himself trailing one of his potential Republican challengers in 2010 by a 16 percent point margin.
The Quinnipiac University poll, which places Rep. Rob Simmons at the vaunted 50 percent line to Dodd's 34, seems to be an outlier in some respects. Just a few weeks ago, the two were essentially tied, and last week, the Senator found himself ahead. Nevertheless, the numbers are bound to spur even more talk that Dodd is, in essence, a dead man walking, his ties to the insurance giant AIG proving politically toxic while a much more capable Democratic candidate (State Attorney General, Richard Blumenthal) is waiting in the wings.
That said, in state and nationally, Dodd's backers aren't sweating -- at least profusely -- just yet. Noting the other polls and the distance until the actual election, one high-ranking strategist offered a three-point rebuttal to the doomsayers.
"One, there's massive room to grow among Democrats, which will be easy to get back for a guy like Dodd. They will eventually come home and that will dramatically change the dynamic. Two, the poll is about AIG -- of course people are going to have negative reactions this close to it. And three, don't forget the impending nasty Republican primary. These three guys will spend the year tearing each other down."
A senior Connecticut Democratic aide, meanwhile, noted that Dodd was just now getting his campaign apparatus off the ground and, as such, "couldn't get ahead" of any of the damaging story lines. "He'll be fine," the aide added. "I think the bleeding has been stopped."
Indeed, as argued by another national Democrat with a stake in the race, Thursday's poll actually showed a lot of room for growth for the Senator. Asked, for example, who was to blame the controversial AIG bonuses, 28 percent said President George W. Bush, seven percent said President Barack Obama and 27 percent said Dodd. His point: "This is a Democratic state." Once the story line moves away from AIG, Dodd's numbers will rise.
In the end, it is historical symmetry as much as electoral ignominy that Dodd is hoping to avoid. His father, Thomas Dodd, ended a long and illustrious career (which included playing a key prosecutorial role in the Nuremberg Trials) under a cloud of ethics scandal. Censured by the Senate in 1967 for using campaign funds for personal purposes and hampered by health issues, he decided to run for re-election in 1970 only after the primary had ended, as an Independent. He lost, taking under a quarter of the vote, and died shortly thereafter.
Chris Dodd devoted a book and a portion of his career to repairing that legacy, even making it a component of his presidential candidacy. Now, several decades later, he is trying to avoid a similar fate.