Nate Silver: How Many People Actually Attended Tea Parties?

fivethirtyeight.com:

Below is a VERY long (but far from comprehensive) list of crowd size estimates at today's Tea Party protests across the country. I've tried to take estimates provided by reporters or police officials only, rather than estimates provided by the organizers or attendees themselves, although surely this is an imperfect science. I've also tried to avoid taking any data from explicitly partisan (including left-leaning partisan) news sources. Collectively, these reports account for an attendance of 111,899.

Read the whole story: fivethirtyeight.com

Comments

[UniversalMan]

Ya know, a lotta people once claimed the world was flat. A lotta people who are partisan claim small numbers attended the Tea Parties. I'd say they are in a panic mode right about now. But don't worry kids, your DHS authoritarian will try to make it all ok for you by doing her best to scare anyone who thinks outside that narrow little box the left lives in. LOL The good news is, the Brave aren't on either party sides. We are the last unique independent thinkers of this wonderful country, and we're not giving up on America, no matter how much independence bothers the radicals. Radicals on both sides guys. :-)

[milo9]

I' m glad you're satisfied with yourself. But stay off my lawn, and don't be shooting up the place either. I won't be the only one who'll be thourghly pissed if you do.

signed,
Gunner

[juanjo]

I have heard extremists on the left and on the right make the same claims for the 55 years I have been alive. So far no workers revolution has occurred nor has there been a mass purging of nonwhites, Jews and other such "undesirables" a la Turner Diaries occurred.

Facts are facts and the facts are that the tax structure Obama is proposing is no radical socialist idea. Facts are most Americans have repudiated the extremist views of both the right and the far left consistently.

[UniversalMan]

Many cities were not listed. Like Phoenix. Let's face it guys. There are plenty of liars to go around no matter if you prefer one particular party or not. The writer of the article prefers to downplay any action from Americans that show allegiance to our country, not a president or congress. I'm registered an Independent because I'm sick of both major parties. I want to see people like Ron Paul and Nader have the same opportunities to thrill a country with their b.s. as the other two Partys have. And that doesn't mean I endorse either one of them. I just want to see us break away from the power these endless career politicians have sewn up for themselves. Corruption runs rampant. Heck, you can't find a competent guy who filed his own taxes? That's pretty pathetic. This is just the beginning of seeing the vast numbers of people who don't jump on the bandwagon of news medias or vested interests, to show what being an American really is all about. Most Americans that I consider intelligent and not reactive or victims are non-partisan. It is gov't and news medias that are partisan. You can always count on that.

[juanjo]

Well the organizers of the Phoenix event estimated that the crowd there was between 5000 and 6000. One wonders what an objective estimate would be, say by the police or independent journalists monitoring the event. But that said, a maximum of 6000 in Phoenix is rather small. Hardly a groundswell of support in a conservative state when Fox News flogged the event mercilessly. And hardly non partisan considering that every whack job wing nut with a right wing conspiracy to flog was there. Not to mention the outright racists who just hate the idea of a black man as president.

Don't bother to deny it, I was there is watch.

[cinesimon]

How many people did Obama have to set aside because of tax errors?
Was it 4, or 5?

That's all you got in your paragraph of pretend patriotism?

[Topfeeder]

LOLZ, more than that turn out for the annual Florida/Georgia cocktail party otherwise known as a football game.

[BigJim716]

Also about this list, if you click on the numbers and look at the sources they used you can conclude(At least from the sources I clicked on) that the sources used are of the left leaning type and would tend to underestimate the amount of people there.

You will also notice how they say at least 250,000 and also tell you this is probably the last estimate and does not include all events(Certainly does not include Orlando or Tavares).

If I were to guess I would say about 1 million since as someone pointed out Dallas was not represented among many others we are not even aware of.

You know if you told me yesterday that 500,000 people would show I would have been happy. I could not be more ecstatic about the numbers I have seen on this list.

And people, this is only the beginning. Come join our cause and stop the massive government spending produced by Bush and Obama. These events, unlike how it is being reported, are bipartisan and peaceful. I am(or was) a Democrat that voted for Obama. We could use more Democrats in this movement.

[Topfeeder]

No thanks Big Jim. Looked like one big hatefest to me.

[closetodemfection]

That's because it's being misreported in the media. Yes, there were some freaks at every protest as there always are. By and large, the media choose to show the most shocking signs and interview the most fringy people. Big surprise. Out of a crowd of thousands they find the one extremist. In any case, the media coverage is irrelevant and will not stop people voicing their opposition to the bailouts. The more they try to ignore it or spin it as some fringy right wing movement, the more frustrated people will become. It will backfire.

[NJmikeV]

From the WSJ

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/10/18/obama-rally-draws-100000-in-missouri/

[NJmikeV]

I went to the Piscataway NJ event in Johnson Park. The crowd was located between the rest rooms and the swing set. 538.com reports 500 in attendance. I beg to differ. There were over 100, but nowhere 500. 200 to 250 would be my maximum estimate. Many were carrying Steve Lonegan for Governor signs. Lonegan, a Bogota NJ mayor, made headlines a while back because he was upset with Spanish language billboards in his town All at the event were white. I don't believe there were any Democrats there.

[Libfemdem]

A million?!! Tell me your joking?
Are you serious or just delusional?

[juanjo]

Even the organizers are saying that it was less than 500,000 total for the country. Optimistic ones are claiming it will be 600,000 when all the numbers come in. Check google and see for yourself before you let your dreams get in the way of reality.

[BigJim716]

As I have corresponded with another poster on this website I have noticed the following bits o information on this list.

It does not include the Orlando event which I was at and had easily 3,500 people and probably 4,000 people. It also does not include the Tavares event that had about 900 from what I have heard.

Also my friend was at the Tampa event that the list says 500 people were at. Yet he tells me that over 1,300 people signed the list they had and most people, including him, did not sign cause of the long line to it. he says about 3,500 people were there.

Now if you do a sample pool(For any statistics geeks) and consider that approximately 8,000 people(In Tavares, Orlando, and Tampa) are only represented on this list by 500 you can conclude the turnout was way more that the 250,000 reported.

I am aware this small of a sample pool(For you statistics people) cannot be used to accurately reflect the actual numbers within reasonable confidence but lets assume they do.

8,000 actual people are only represented by 500 people on the list. You could say the actual number of people is 16 times(8,000/500) higher than the estimate shown on this list. 16 times 250,000 would be about 4 million but I doubt that many people showed.

[juanjo]

Keep dreaming. The organizers are reporting 5000 to 5500 at Orlando and Tampa at 1750. They are hoping for a national turnout of around 600,000 total. Actual estimates from non biased observers are of course lower.

[slowhand0728]

This list is missing hundreds of events, not sure what it really shows. But like the idea to see how many people really attended. Could not believe Dallas was not on the list.

[BigJim716]

It is missing the Orlando Event I was at. Also the Tavares event which I am now aware of.

I would tend to believe this list will substantially underestimate the actual attendance. I am thinking 1 million or more.

[naschkatze]

I just read on the Chicago Tribune that "hundreds" protested in downtown Chicago. I don't find that impressive.

[PNOGUY]

But remember all the fuss about how wonderful the "Million Man" march was...when there were nowhere near a million people there.

The mainstream press makes a huge deal out of tiny lefty protests, but tries to downplay fairly significant events such as the tea parties.

[naschkatze]

The Million Man March may not have hit a million, but I thought it was pretty impressive. I doubt if all the teabaggings tied together equaled that one demonstration. Fox tried to score with its red dots all over the map. The protest may have been wide but it was shallow.

[NJmikeV]

I went to the Piscataway NJ event in Johnson Park. The crowd was located between the rest rooms and the swing set. 538 reports 500 in attendance. I beg to differ. There were over 100, but nowhere 500. 200 to 250 would be my maximum estimate. Many were carrying Steve Lonegan for Governor signs. All were white.

[tlgeiger62]

I don't believe all these numbers. Not that I doubt Nate Silver - just the numbers he was given by the event organizers.

I think it's important to see there were no apparent counter protests and I think that's because most know those who protested don't know what is going on anyway.

[huffposeur]

you got that bass-ackwards. when a revolution begins it's very rare that those who caused it have any idea what is happening. i'm just glad the administration didn't try and misdirect it, as they did with the aig bailout.

people were pissed that aig got 85 billion and obama cleverly, almost successfully, directed media attention into making the rest of america think that people were not pissed at the 85 billion but at the puny 165 million in bonuses.

[bknott]

That rascally rabbit! What have we done?

We traded in Bush, the MBA who excelled in managing our budget, economy, taxes, infrastructure, the works. Our deficit never looked so good, and everyone was filthy rich.

For no reason, whatsoever, we elected Obama, who threw everything into the crapper in just three months!! How on earth has he done it???

[discourse jockey]

Ach, America.

[truelockCA]

Regardless of how it "spins" it made for an interesting day. And more people showed up than ANYONE expected.

[GlenRast]

What a crock! What happened to those millions that were being touted as late as Tuesday. To top it off your fellow delusional teabaggers were posting numbers here that turned out to be lies.

Add the fact that at least half of the attendees were either totally clueless or were there to rant about other stupid things and you have what my teenage daughter would call EPIC FAILURE

[NJmikeV]

yawn

[juanjo]

I beg to differ, Fox was claiming millions would show up and the actual number who did will be well below one million.

[loisinthepink]

The numbers are a little vexing to me.....1500 in Salem Oregon and 200 in Scranton PA? Oregon is quite liberal and Salem is a small town. Are those numbers switched? I am pretty well informed but there were several towns on this list that I have never heard of. Are there statistics by region of the country? Anyone notice the ethnic diversity --- or lack there of --- in the crowds? Also the average age? My observation is over 65 middle to lower income white people. The signs were really a mixed bag of ideas/protests. They did not seem to follow any one theme or idea.

[truelockCA]

The events in So Cal I viewed on local news seemed well attended. A lot more than I thought would show up. More showed up than Racheal Maddow could poke fun at. A little egg on her face, based on the numbers she resorted to jr. high name calling tactics. It was sad. MSNBC has to pull the plug on her and get Alan Combes on board....someone needs to compete with Sean H!

[pamelagoodenough]

shut up you m.oron.
Dr. Maddow is bright, informed, compassionate, educated, and you are not. Your buddy is a m.oron too. THe only person who can compete with Dr. Maddow is Keith O.. She is heads and shoulders above any other news person. That includes cnn, nbc, cbs, abc, and fox. Over at fox they have nothing to say but lies.

[parkerfly38]

I lament the lack of a matching liberal slant to Fox News, but Maddow and Olbermann are both just a little too smug at times. Face it, cable news just sucks across the board. It has the attention span similar to the life span of a fruit fly, the investigative depth of a puddle, and we buy their tendentious swill with the same animation as the conservatives.

[sleepdawg]

These "protests" have already been completely debunked as astroturfing/fake campaigns that are being funded by the usual Republican millionaires who simply want to rile up and use lower and middle class white people to shield their own selfish desires to pay less taxes.

Simply put, the rich should pay more and have gotten away with actually paying less since Bush and his cronies got into power. The action is not less taxes, it is less spending on defense! Cut the defense budget in half and start using the money that is collected on true public works programs to fund universal healthcare and rebuild infrastructure.

No more of these sad right wing false tactics, and please no more from the useless crew that supported them for the past 9 years. No more Bushies!

[OdaNobunaga]

Hardly. 100,000 people across the country isn't even a tenth of a percent of the U.S. population, and it falls well short of Fox's predicted "revolution." I'd say phonies over at Faux News are the ones with egg on their faces.

[GlenRast]

Sure they were. Were you selected to be the official spinner of this joke or did you volunteer?

[NedroidPrime]

She didn't "resort to jr. high name calling tactics" you goof. She used the same terms that you guys used yourselves, so why don't you admit you don't know what you were doing when you signed on?

Typical of the right, claim personal responsibility, and yet take none for your own ignorance.

[Mingalls]

Very interesting. I observed the Ventura California TP. I was impressed by the turn out and asked several demonstrators to estimate the crowd number. The answers varied from 300 - 500 people. Nowhere the 4000 claimed by the organizers!

[juanjo]

SurgeUSA which is one of the organizations flogging this half baked tax revolt says the crowd in Ventura was 400 so whoever is saying 5000 is way too optimistic or math impaired.