Specter's Switch: Why It Matters

With newly minted Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania in their ranks, Obama's party now controls 59 seats in the upper chamber. When Al Franken of Minnesota is finally seated, Democrats will have 60, the number needed to squash a filibuster and move to a final vote.

Sixty is the magic number in the Senate -- but only if the party can muster 60 votes. Sixty members alone doesn't do it, a point emphasized by conservative Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska when asked by the Huffington Post what Specter's move does to his own position as a power broker in the Senate.

"Nothing. Sixty members doesn't translate to 60 votes, so it doesn't really change anything for me," he said. "The automatic assumption that people will take from this is, 'Ah, things are changing.' And maybe they will, but it's not automatic."

There is, however, one automatic change that comes with having 60 votes. The greatest power that the minority has in the Senate is the power to grind things to a halt. By filibustering, the GOP not only blocks the piece of legislation it's opposing, but also any other action that is bottle-necked behind it. The threat to grind things to a halt is one that the majority takes seriously. It gives the minority veto power over small (but important) pieces of legislation that the majority wants but can't afford to lose several weeks pushing. With 60 votes, the majority can push through those smaller measures over the objections of the GOP.

It's a point Sen. Charles Schumer of New York, the third-ranking Democrat, underscored. "The bottom line is, it's still not going to be easy. This is a bold, comprehensive agenda. But the sort-of-just-doing-a-filibuster-at-every-whim to block us is not there and that makes legislating a lot easier," he said.

Nelson said that Specter's voting pattern going forward will determine how significant his switch is. "I'm sure his voting patterns will be comparable as a Democrat as they were when he was a Republican," he said. "I think only time will tell when you see whether there's a voting pattern that develops."

Ryan Grim is the author of the forthcoming book This Is Your Country On Drugs: The Secret History of Getting High in America

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Comments

[serindipity803]

Ben Nelson = foggy brain

[take10]

Michael Steel and the RNC threatened to support anyone who opposed Specter, Snow and Collins. What did he expect them to do? Just goes to show that the RNC is allowing the stupidity of Steele to run the decent people away from the GOP. Michael, keep up the good work! You're doing a great job for the democratic party...

[wdw505]

then why complain

[take10]

Who is complaining? I am loving this sh$t! All of you right winged, wrong logic rethugs complain 24/7. What you don't realize is that no one is listening to you. Your platform has collapsed and all of your dreams of returning to the old southern confederacy are under water. Rest in peace!

[4Q-N4Q2]

Specter's a cross-dresser who's been playing with dolls ever since he was first elected. The fact that he's finally "coming out of the closet" is hardly a surprise.

[take10]

Are you sure you don't mean Rudy? We actually him all dressed up as a lady!

[take10]

We actually saw him dressed up as a lady!

[lynettema]

I'm not all that excited unless he really will vote with the Democrats. The people voted in November and we know what we want. Conservative Democrats better get on board with it or they will be running against good progressive candidates next time around.

[Kevin Morgan]

It's kinda like having another Joe Lieberman.

[TheHandyman]

Which Demowon'ts? You labor under the delusion that the Dems are a united group who are diligently working on behalf of the People which they aren't. Remember all the votes they gave Bush's little war and war funding? Notice how they too signed off on torture and the warrentless wiretapping of the People? Wow, talk about getting excited over nothing!

[lagumbo]

Did anyone notice that Specter was the only one who called Rush a cartoon, and didn't come back on his knees begging for forgiviness? What a man. The republicans have lost the only man in heir party. They are now a bunch of bafooms.

[TheHandyman]

Boy, you sure set the bar low for the requirements for being a man and a Demowon't, don't you. The fact that he speaks one thing and votes another apparently doesn't register on your scale of doing his job. The fact that Specter can jump from one side to the other only proves what Ralph Nader pointed out some 10 years ago, the Demowon'ts and the Republican't are only a hair breadths apart in ideaology and practice!

[wlaurencew]

The Republicans are not simply entering a period in opposition, as in times past; I believe this is now officially an implosion. Which is kind of fun to watch if you're not a Republican, but how will these political tectonics play out? We need a party that at least gives some voice to the right (even the batsh*t crazy right). Too much fragmentation on the right isn't good for any of us.

[weatherwaxx]

Odds are the Dems will split into conservative and liberal wings, eventually.

[wlaurencew]

Yeh, you're probably right. Excellent - then we can all get back to persecuting each other.

[brooklyncitizen]

hoping for a new third party to emerge that is TRULY liberal and grassroots.dems and reps are diffferent in degrees but cut from the same corporatist cloth.

[joxi]

Absolutely weat.... you are right. I think at first it will be as Obama-Clinton, priamries, it was more interesting then the general election campaign, as is in japan, the primary of the party matters and sets the tone of the government, the general elections are always the same party winning.

However the wlaurencew comment that the rep. are .... fragmentation, is not the good word, I think they are actually getting very unified and very extreme right, and eventually will be like Le Pen in france, some 10% of pro-nazi votes...(i am using a word nazi and not fascist)

[Jewkie]

When you're a Republican and you get cancer, you reflect and go "Oh my God! What am I doing!"

Then you become a Democrat.

[eliasboudit]

In a March 17th interview with The Hill, Specter said he absolutely would not switch parties:

[Democrats] are trying very hard for the 60th vote. Got to give them credit for trying. But the answer is no.

I'm not going to discuss private talks I had with other people who may or may not be considered influential. But since those three people are in the public domain, I think it is appropriative to respond to those questions.

I am staying a Republican because I think I have an important role, a more important role, to play there. The United States very desperately needs a two-party system. That's the basis of politics in America. I'm afraid we are becoming a one-party system, with Republicans becoming just a regional party with so little representation of the northeast or in the middle atlantic. I think as a governmental matter, it is very important to have a check and balance. That's a very important principle in the operation of our government. In the constitution on Separation of powers.

[barackobama4prez]

checks and balances is not the same thing as "just block everything" which the GOP is doing.

[TheHandyman]

So, was he lieing then or is he lieing now? Or is this just another of two-faced Specters charades?

[Ted O'Neill]

Well Winston Churchill changed party twice to suit himself, and the results had a
big effect on Twentieth Century history.
"Anyone can rat, but it takes a certain ingenuity to re-rat," he said.

It may not be an american tradition, but I'm sure Mr. Specter could change party
again if he wants (after winning a safe Democrat seat, that is!)

[InspiredByTruth]

Why would he? He won't get back his old committee seats, the rethugs will still hate him (he be thoroughly isolated and ostracized), and the Dems will likely win more senate seats in 2010 pushing past 60 seats & making a switch irrelevant. You're also forgetting that Spector was a Dem before he switched in the 60s. He's officially "come home".
:)

[kape]

My hope is that Specter will help at least to prevent filibusters and then vote as he likes. I don't know how many times the Dems gave up filibusters to cooperate/as sign of good faith only to get nothing in return -- and now we have a messed up Supreme Court for the next three decades. We need to let bills come to a majority of votes, except in the rarest of circumstances or problems simply won't get solved and big money will continue to rule.

[InspiredByTruth]

Yep. He can vote for cloture and then vote as he pleases.

[Kassandra]

Chris Matthews had some pretty good pointson Olbermann just now. I believe Specter is in this for himself. I also think the Dems should support a REAL Democrat to run against him and let the chips fall where they may.
but, word is REID has promised ARLEN a committee chair.....­.......so.­.......whe­n just last month he was saying that Specter's positon on card check EFCA disqualified him for membership in the Dem party.
Go read this and get down from your cloud about ARLEN:
http://firedoglake.com/2009/04/28/specter-club-for-growth-overplays-their-hand-again-democrats-arent-even-in-the-game/

We better watch these people closely.

[eliasboudit]

You got it!

This is all about arlen having to face a formidable foe in the GOP primary! Now let him try and have a dem not run against him lol

[take10]

A bigger threat to the GOP is the endless parade of hate mongers who cause people like you to come out of the wood work! You need to be worried by the likes of Michelle Bachmann who cause people like Arlen to jump ship. He didn't simply leave the GOP. He escaped from the asylum known as the republican party!

[InspiredByTruth]

Spector has over $6million in the bank already, the Dem challenger for the primary has one 10th that. He's more of a sure thing and he gives the Dems a full year of near fillibuster-free votes. Spector will switch on the EFCA, as a Dem he will seriously need that union support. Matthews just wanted the PA seat for himself and now he's having second thoughts.

[wdw505]

the 6 million was republican money........watch how much the republican gets in his place

[sunnyokanagan]

Now Franken will never escape the Republican morasse. They won't let him have that seat until it is pried out of Coleman's cold, dead, hands.

[weatherwaxx]

They don' t own that seat and the Minnesota Supreme Court is not comprised of Bush appointees.

[tb92]

I think this matters for a completely different reason. The republicans have always had one ability that the dems did not--they vote as a block. Democrats have always had some who didn't toe the party line, and that is a good thing, but it sometimes weakens them against an opponent that allows no independent thought from its members. If the repubs are losing control of their own people, then we are presented with an amazing opportunity.

Keep the pressure on your representatives. Don't allow them to cave in to more corporate or religious pressure. Write. Call. Let them know that you're paying attention.

[Kassandra]

Agreed. something smells. Specter wants to hold onto his seat no matter what he has to do.

[eliasboudit]

BINGO BINGO BINGO!

He dosnet want to face a formidable opponent so he runs like a child.

But funny thing is, in 2012 if he is not beaten in a dem primary he will HAVE to face Pat Toomey lolol

[captjefe]

Now if Phil Specter joins the Dems, the Republicans are really doomed!

[Economike]

I think he's going to be busy with other things....

[take10]

He'll be entertaining a conservative in the shower named Big Bubba!

[Kevin Morgan]

The GOP threatened Spectre and had already committed to fund and run a R candidate in his place. The GOP asked for this and it is a fitting response to a party of bullies who are hell bent on destroying themselves. Many more defections are going to take place in the states where GOP extremism has reached an all time high. I look for many of these in my home state of Missouri. Things are changing....Obama's promise holds true.

[LemonMeringue]

Thank you, Bush and Cheney, for destroying the neocon Republican party.

[savethecountry]

This, for me, is the true significance of Specter's switch. It's not anything that we can measure right now, but coming attractions over the next year or so should be at least as interesting as the feature presentation in 2010. The Repub party has made it crystal clear that it has no room for moderates and/or those who aren't willing to kiss Rush's rump. The fallout here could be HUGE (maybe 3 to 5 more Dems in the Senate and another 10 to 15 in the House) for cloture AND realignment, affecting both moderate incumbent and neophyte Republicans considering running for national office in 2010, particularly in contested states Obama won in 2008, like Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and in states he narrowly lost, like Missouri. The Northeast and Pacific West are already solidly blue, and the Industrial Midwest isn't far behind.

In five years we may realize that Specter was just the first trickle of a river of realignment.

[Kevin Morgan]

Excellent observation and prediction savethecountry.