WHO Raises Pandemic Alert Level

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April 29, 2009 04:15 PM EST | AP

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GENEVA — The World Health Organization has raised its pandemic alert for swine flu to the second highest level, meaning that it believes a global outbreak of the disease is imminent.

WHO says the phase 5 alert means there is sustained human to human spread in at least two countries. It also signals that efforts to produce a vaccine will be ramped up.

WHO has confirmed human cases of swine flu in Mexico, the United States, Canada, Britain, Israel, New Zealand and Spain. Mexico and the U.S. have reported deaths.

WHO Director-General Margaret Chan made the decision Wednesday to raise the alert level from phase 4 _ signifying transmission in only one country _ after reviewing the latest scientific evidence on the outbreak.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

BERLIN (AP) _ The World Health Organization warned Wednesday that the swine flu outbreak is moving closer to becoming a pandemic, as the United States reported the first swine flu death outside of Mexico, and Germany and Austria became latest European nations hit by the disease.

In Geneva, WHO flu chief Dr. Keiji Fukuda told reporters that there was no evidence the virus was slowing down, moving the agency closer to raising its pandemic alert to phase 5, indicating widespread human-to-human transmission.

But he said the health body not yet ready to move the pandemic alert level up from its current level of 4, which means the virus is being passed among people. Phase 6 _ the highest in the scale _ is for a full-scale pandemic.

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As fear and uncertainty about the disease ricocheted around the globe, nations took all sorts of precautions, some more useful than others.

Britain closed a school after a 12-year-old girl was found to have the disease. Egypt slaughtered all its pigs and the central African nation of Gabon became the latest nation to ban pork imports, despite assurances that swine flu was not related to eating pork.

Cuba eased its flight ban, deciding just to block flights coming in from Mexico. And Asian nations greeted returning airport travelers with teams of medical workers and carts of disinfectants, eager to keep swine flu from infecting their continent.

In Mexico City, the epicenter of the epidemic, the mayor said Wednesday the outbreak seemed to be stabilizing and he was considering easing the citywide shutdown that closed schools, restaurants, concert halls and sports arenas.

Swine flu is suspected of killing more than 150 people in Mexico and sickening over 2,400 there.

Dr. Richard Besser, the acting chief of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said 91 cases have now been confirmed in 10 states, and health officials there reported Wednesday that a 23-month-old Mexican boy had died in Texas from the disease.

Across Europe, Germany confirmed three swine flu cases and Austria one, while the number of confirmed cases rose to five in Britain and ten in Spain.

WHO conducted a scientific review Wednesday to determine exactly what is known about how the disease spreads, how it affects human health and how it can be treated.

Dr. Nikki Shindo, a WHO flu expert, said the review would focus on the large trove of data coming from Mexico and from a school in New York City that has been hard-hit by the outbreak.

Germany's national disease control center, the Robert Koch Institute, said the country's three cases include a 22-year-old woman hospitalized in Hamburg, a man in his late 30s at a hospital in Regensburg, north of Munich, and a 37-year-old woman from another Bavarian town. All three had recently returned from Mexico.

Austria's health ministry said a 28-year-old woman who recently returned from a monthlong trip to Guatemala via Mexico City and Miami has the virus but is recovering.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said health officials were ordering extra medicine and "several million more" face masks to deal with the virus.

British media reports, citing an unidentified European surgical mask manufacturer, said the U.K. was seeking 32 million masks to protect its health workers from a possible pandemic.

"We've decided to build stocks of anti-virals, from 35 million to 50 million," Brown said, adding that the government had put in enhanced airport checks and was going to mail swine flu information leaflets to every household in Britain.

In addition to a couple in Scotland who got swine flu on their Mexican honeymoon, new British cases included a 12-year-old girl in the southwest English town of Torbay. Brown said her school had been closed as a precaution.

He said the other two cases were adults in London and in Birmingham. All three had visited Mexico, were receiving anti-viral drugs and were responding well to treatment, Brown said.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy met with Cabinet ministers to discuss swine flu and his health minister said France will ask the European Union to suspend flights to Mexico.

The U.S., the European Union and other countries have discouraged nonessential travel to Mexico. Cuba suspended all regular and charter flights from Mexico to the island but was still allowing airlines to return travelers to Mexico.

New Zealand's number of swine flu cases rose to 14, 13 of them among a school group that recently returned from Mexico. Officials say the swine flu strain infecting the students is the same as that in Mexico. All were responding well to antiviral drugs and in voluntary quarantine at home.

New Zealand has 44 other possible cases, with tests under way.

Mexico was taking drastic measures to fight the outbreak. It closed all archaeological sites and allowed restaurants in the capital to only serve takeout food in an aggressive bid to stop gatherings where the virus can spread. Schools remained closed until at least May 6.

A regional beach soccer championship in Mexico was postponed and all Mexican first-division soccer games this weekend will be played with no audiences. Cruise lines were avoiding Mexican ports and holiday tour groups are canceling holiday charter flights there.

The Philippine health chief appealed to dozens of Filipino legislators to abandon plans to visit Las Vegas to cheer for boxing idol Manny Pacquiao _ even though Las Vegas is more than 300 miles (480 kilometers) from the Mexican border.

Egypt's government ordered the slaughter of all pigs in the country as a precaution, though no swine flu cases have been reported there. Egypt's overwhelmingly Muslim population does not eat pork, but farmers raise up to 350,000 pigs for its Christian minority.

In Australia, officials were testing more than 100 people with flu symptoms for the virus and the government gave health authorities wide powers to contain contagious diseases.

"(We can make) sure that people are isolated and perhaps detained if they don't cooperate and are showing symptoms," said Health Minister Nicola Roxon.

___

Associated Press Writers around the world contributed to this report.

GENEVA — The World Health Organization has raised its pandemic alert for swine flu to the second highest level, meaning that it believes a global outbreak of the disease is imminent. WHO says t...
GENEVA — The World Health Organization has raised its pandemic alert for swine flu to the second highest level, meaning that it believes a global outbreak of the disease is imminent. WHO says t...
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- AngieMom57 I'm a Fan of AngieMom57 68 fans permalink
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It is time for a simultaneously implemented Solution on several fronts.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:11 AM on 05/01/2009
- rodeman I'm a Fan of rodeman 3 fans permalink

From todays Los Angeles Times:

"Scientists see this flu strain as relatively mild. Genetic data indicate this outbreak won't be as deadly as that of 1918, or even the average winter."

Wonder if the dead people in Mexico would agree.

Maybe we should all calm down a bit.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:33 AM on 04/30/2009
- Tulka2 I'm a Fan of Tulka2 236 fans permalink
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Reporting is like a rock in a bucket carried along on a galloping horse.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:54 PM on 04/30/2009

This may be way out there but what about the Level 4 Biolab in Galveston that was recently damaged by the hurricane-­--coincide­nce? I still think that Lyme disease escaped from Plum Island.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:56 AM on 04/30/2009
- Tulka2 I'm a Fan of Tulka2 236 fans permalink
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Young people only know about quarantine from horror movies, but fifty years ago quarantines were really effective and routine. Think about it. Every smart citizen has at least a week's worth of food on hand. You can eat macaroni and cheese if it comes to that. Be prepared to stay home for a week.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:27 AM on 04/30/2009

we need to shut the entire country down for two weeks and forcibly confine everyone to their homes. all public service workers would be issued hazmat suits to continue to provide essential services.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:45 PM on 04/29/2009
- dashboard I'm a Fan of dashboard 9 fans permalink
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We just need Fox, CNN, MSNBC, HLN to go dark for two weeks.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:07 AM on 04/30/2009

jdw1981. Mae Brussell who wrote that article about CIA's spreading of Swine Flu in Cuba was a "conspiracy theorist" who was active in the San Francisco Bay Area in the 70's and 80's. I use to listen to her in high school in the 80's before she died mysteriously of rapid onset ovarian cancer. She was a very influintial researcher investigative journalist, the kind that doesnt exist in this country anymore. She was researching the Child abuse sex scandal at theMilitary base in the presidio, san francisco, and had uncovered information linking military intelligence and child abductions in this country. Need less to say this investigation, was buried after her death. She also was an expert on the CIA's nefarious activities of the 60's, 70's, 80's, and had predicted Ronald Reagan would be elected president of the US in 1971! and the coming fascism in this country. Her and other so called conspiracy theorists at the time argued through detailed anaylsis that the CIA's doings in the third world would eventually be used on the American population, to implement fascism in the US., that eventually we would be the recipients of tortue ourselves. These people tried to warn people at the time, but were mostly dismissed.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:11 PM on 04/29/2009
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I'd love to hear from the ID Docs out there.

What are your thoughts?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:57 PM on 04/29/2009
- jdw1981 I'm a Fan of jdw1981 44 fans permalink
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From the San Francisco Chronicle, 1977:

"CIA Link to Cuban Pig Virus Reported"

http://www.maebrussell.com/Health/CIA%20Pig%20Virus.html

I'm not inferring the CIA has anything to do with the flu pandemic now (of course they don't), but it is worth noting that swine flu has been used as a biological warfare weapon in the past.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:16 PM on 04/29/2009
- peterg76 I'm a Fan of peterg76 30 fans permalink
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Swine flu. Bay of Pigs. Coincidence?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:51 PM on 04/29/2009
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Swine flu. Porkulus bill. Coincidence?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:41 PM on 04/29/2009
- dashboard I'm a Fan of dashboard 9 fans permalink
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Porky Pig, Daffy Duck, Bugs Bunny, coincidence?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:08 AM on 04/30/2009
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South Park's ? Gore "Man/Bear/pig"; Now Man/Bird/Pig Virus...co­incidence.­..I think not.

I think Gore knows something

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:34 AM on 04/30/2009

For everyone who thinks this epidemic is overhyped, here's a blog entry from the BBC:

"There is a sense of chaos in the other hospitals and we do not know what to do. Staff are starting to leave and many are opting to retire or apply for holidays. The truth is that mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily, and it has been going on for more than three weeks. It is a shame and there is great fear here. Increasingly younger patients aged 20 to 30 years are dying before our helpless eyes and there is great sadness among health professionals here." -- Antonio Chavez, Mexico City

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:05 PM on 04/29/2009
- Smirk I'm a Fan of Smirk 24 fans permalink
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Yikes! Like the DF needs--or the world--needs more problems.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:45 PM on 04/29/2009
- AngieMom57 I'm a Fan of AngieMom57 68 fans permalink
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If this blogger is telling the truth and it seems to be an honest account, well, then prepared for the worst and hope for the best...now who said that?

Health is our only true wealth.
An ounce of prevention is wroth a pound of cure.
Let food by thy medicine.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:30 PM on 04/29/2009
- zitlight73 I'm a Fan of zitlight73 37 fans permalink

Since there is only two of the WHO left whose causing all this panic Roger or Pete.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:47 PM on 04/29/2009
- yappnmutt I'm a Fan of yappnmutt 67 fans permalink

its the curse of keith.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:54 PM on 04/29/2009
- zitlight73 I'm a Fan of zitlight73 37 fans permalink

`The WHO Flu. Symptoms; the urge to trash hotel rooms, sinking Lincoln Contentials in Holiday Inn swimming pools, blowing up drumkits with way too much gunpowder and lastly playing the loudest and greatest rock and roll of all time.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:04 PM on 04/29/2009
- Buffyboy I'm a Fan of Buffyboy 13 fans permalink

36,000 people die from the flu every year. This flu story is puffed-up fodder for the 24 hour news cycle, which is one of the most disastrous developments in our country's history. The 24 hour news cycle manipulates the MSM, the mouthpiece for Madison Avenue and the corporations. The news beast slants public opinion and the politicians who are ruled by corporate donations. Somebody is making lots of money from this story.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:25 PM on 04/29/2009
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Dr Terrence Tumpey (National Center for Infectious Diseases, CDC).

In 2005, this researcher (Terrence Tumpey) succeeded in rebuilding this virus from an avian influenza transmissible between human beings. The H1N1 variation (also know as the 1918 Spanish Flu) had been extinct since the 20's. The CDC didn't even have a sample vile of H1N1, it was so far off humanities radar. They dug up WWI soldiers and removed body tissue from the corpses to get the H1N1 variation (The Avian Flu was H5N1). In doing so they completely recreated and reconstructed the virus to be more deadly (as far as human to human transmission is concerned) than it ever was in its natural state in 1900's. The CDC couldn't even find a sample of this, ANYWHERE.... now it is EVERYWHERE. Is it safe to think the CDC and possibly Terrence Tumpey are responsible, most definitely. Go to youtube type in "H1N1" and educate yourselves.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:49 PM on 04/29/2009
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Speaking as a biologist, this account is full of poop. Who dug up WWI soldiers corpses? What corpses? Not even speaking of nonexistent corpses, a virus is not the plague bacillum. It does not stay dormant in the earth for decades. This is why you can only get sick through direct exposure with bodily fluids and not via things that a patient touched a long time ago. Another myth busted. Huzzah.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:48 PM on 04/29/2009
- yappnmutt I'm a Fan of yappnmutt 67 fans permalink

The North American Plan for Avian and Pandemic Influenza The North American Plan for Avian and Pandemic Influenza outlines a collaborative North American approach that recognizes that mitigating the effects of a pandemic requires coordinated action by all three countries. It outlines how Canada, Mexico and the United States will work together to prepare for and manage outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza and pandemic influenza. At the March 2006 SPP summit in Cancun, Mexico, the leaders of the three countries committed to developing a comprehensive, coordinated, science-based approach to prepare for and manage avian and pandemic influenza. This common approach would be based on the four pillars of emergency management: prevention and mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. Canada, Mexico and the United States also established a senior-level Coordinating Body on Avian and Pandemic Influenza to facilitate effective planning and preparedness within North America for a possible outbreak. Key Objectives of the North American Plan The North American Plan provides a framework to accomplish the following: * Detect, contain and control an avian influenza outbreak and prevent transmission to humans; * Prevent or slow the entry of a new strain of human influenza into North America; * Minimize illness and deaths; and * Sustain infrastructure and mitigate the impact to the economy and the functioning of society http://www.state.gov/g/avianflu/91282.htm a closer look at the powers of state associated with this agreement might surprise you with what is next now that an emergency has been declared.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:23 PM on 04/29/2009
- yappnmutt I'm a Fan of yappnmutt 67 fans permalink

WE ARE ALL GONNA DIEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!

who is who to be creating worldwide panic unless they know something they are not telling which could really cause a panic.

i hope those fema camps are airconditioned , have plenty of portopotties and serve good food.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:15 PM on 04/29/2009
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A big 10-4 on that. I guess we know what the NYC photo-op was all about now?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:18 PM on 04/29/2009
- MsDoc I'm a Fan of MsDoc 49 fans permalink

Just watch for the development of a geometric progression.

USA

Day Initial cases Predicted Actual
1 20
2 40 41
3 82 91
4 164
5 328

If the cases just doubled each day...starting with 20 cases, by Day 10 there would be 20,992 cases.

If the actual numer of reported cases is put in, day four on this graph would be 182 and the rest of the numbers would increase commensurately. This is where the problem lurks.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:02 PM on 04/29/2009
- MsDoc I'm a Fan of MsDoc 49 fans permalink

Sorry... you have to move the numbers under the right heading. Guess you can't do a graph here.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:04 PM on 04/29/2009
- Tom Joad I'm a Fan of Tom Joad 254 fans permalink
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OMIGOSH!!!!! The entire human population of the world will be infected in less than 30 days!!!!!!!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:13 PM on 04/29/2009
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Does this mean that we can only be saved by purchasing Baxter's Sav-o-life tablets for $295.99 for a pack of ten?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:22 PM on 04/29/2009
- MsDoc I'm a Fan of MsDoc 49 fans permalink

Math is what math is.... and this is based on each ailing person infecting just one other....

That's why epidemics are inherently dangerous. This is not to say that the mortality rate would be that high...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:58 PM on 04/29/2009
- bayside I'm a Fan of bayside 36 fans permalink
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I sense the media is hyping this the sky is falling like when bush declare the bird flu was going to kill 2 million people..More people died from taking the vaccine than the flu..Media reminds me of the build up to iraq war..I want to believe we have a honest media again , we will someday..

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:58 PM on 04/29/2009

Nobody died of the "bird flu" vaccine. You're thinking of the half-arsed swine flu vaccine from the '70s. That's what happens when you rush a vaccine through without safety trials. Sometimes it's necessary, but not always.

Bird flu was scary. The "H" part of flu viruses is what the virus uses to hook onto host cells and is what the immune system recognizes most strongly. H5 never before hooked onto human cells - only avian ones. The H5 bird flu from the early 2000s could. Since 0% of humans had protection against H5 antigens, if the bird flu could figure out how to replicate better in humans, it would be extra dangerous.

Again, you're right that this is over-hyped. Just please don't go off on "vaccines/science is the enemy" thing. This shouldn't be ignored, it just doesn't deserve the teeth gnashing it's getting.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:10 PM on 04/29/2009
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Well maybe you care to comment on this.

S: 1873
Biodefense and Pandemic Vaccine and Drug Development Act of 2005

It never became law, but you need to review the content to see what your government was "really" after. Who's to say this isn't another attempt at this very same thing?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:41 PM on 04/29/2009
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