Specter Can Read A Poll: Democrat Trounces Toomey In Latest Survey

Arlen Specter freely acknowledges that his switch from Republican to Democrat was driven by politics as much as principles. "I am unwilling to have my twenty-nine year Senate record judged by the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate," he declared upon his defection. "I have not represented the Republican Party."

Now there's proof that the man can read a poll. The primary opponent that Specter was set to lose to as a Republican has become a general election opponent that Specter now trounces.

According to a Quinnipiac poll released on Monday, the Pennsylvania Democrat would beat the man who nearly knocked him off in the 2004 primary, Pat Toomey, by a margin of 53 percent to 33 percent.

Having just crossed the aisle, Specter nevertheless does not suffer from skepticism among Democrats, who prefer him to Toomey by a margin of 85 percent to four percent (Specter gets independent voters, too, by a margin of 45 to 36 percent).

In fact, 81 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats already approve of the job Specter is doing -- despite the fact that he remains a staunch opponent of two key progressive agenda items: the Employee Free Choice Act and a public plan for health care coverage. Of the former, Quinnipiac reports the following finding: "Because Specter opposes the pro-union Employee Free Choice Act, 23 percent of voters are less likely to vote for him, while 14 percent are more likely and 60 percent say this will not affect their vote. There is little difference from the overall totals among union households."

The poll did not survey how potential Democratic primary candidate Rep. Joe Sestak would fair in a primary against Specter. It did, however, run the tabs for the possibility of former Gov. Tom Ridge running as a Republican. And, if that ends up being the case, Specter's electoral standing is far more precarious: 46 percent of voters would back the recently-minted Democrat, Quinnipiac finds, compared to 43 percent for the former Department of Homeland Security header.

"Gov. Tom Ridge is probably the only political figure in Pennsylvania who could give Sen. Arlen Specter a run for his money," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But even if he gets a strong challenge from a Republican, Specter is still better off for having changed parties because he seemed headed to certain defeat had he stayed a Republican and faced Toomey in a primary."

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Comments

[wot]

A Trojan Horse, not a Dem. Just keeping his seat, so don't count him as part of the 60 required for a filibuster-proof majority.

[nothingmusic42]

i don't live in penn, i live in fl. i can understand specter switching parties. i wouldn't be suprised if gov. charlie crist gets a strong republican primary challenge. however, i'm a voter, and i have certain abilites that most people don't realize they also have. chief among them, i can switch my party registration. in 2000, i knew gore had the dem. nomination, so i switched my party to republican, and voted for john mccain in the republican primary (i like to boast that i actually voted 3 times against bush, twice in 2000 and once in 2004). after the primary, i switched back to dem and voted gore in gneral election. come 2012, obama is almost guaranteed to be re-elected, so i'll switch my party for the primaries to vote for the least crazy repug nominee. of course, when i show up to vote, i'll fill out the form to switch my party back to dem.

[Margary]

idiots, with out specter vote, their wouldn't be a stimulus. He's a good moderate republicans willing to work with Demacrates, back off!

[westendsunset]

I will NOT be supporting Specter. I hope Joe Sestak runs against him.

[rabiddog6708]

Hopefully, a real Dem will beat Specter in the primary. I, for one, do not want this man in the Senate. Too bad Lieberman can't be gotten rid of for six more years.

[bluedoctor]

Actually Lieberman faces re-election in 3 and a half years, not six.

[tre]

Many people were surprised that Specter switched to being a democrat. They were surprised to hear he was a Republican to begin with.

[AprilPA]

I thought that Tom Ridge is a moderate Republican, which is a no-no in today's GOP. You must be 100% conservative to be in that party and I would thik that his pro-choice stance would turn off the GOP. I thought it was his pro-choice stance that was one of the big reasons why McCain didn't pick him as his VP choice.

[lapdogs]

Specter may be "able to read a poll and see that a Democrat would trounce Toomey", but that Democrat isn't Specter.

And as long as Specter keeps voting like a Republican, he won't have a chance running against a "Real Democratic" Senate Candidate.

[cjk002]

Um, did you read the article? Specter IS the Democrat in the poll, and he gets the votes of 85% of the Democrats in the state.

[FairTalk]

This is just the most reason why there should be no political parties. It should be about the man or woman who wants to represent the people he is asking votes from.

George Washington was right about the danger of political parties. Too often the candidate is just a spokesperson for the party platform, spouting the party line, even if he/she is opposed to it.

Why doesn't Arlen become independent then? Gee, now we get the the heart of what is wrong with the way our vountry is run. Without a political party, how would he raise the huge amounts of money needed to campaign effectively?

So, most of those who win elections own their heart and soul to the big businesses, whether for profit or not for profit, and the result is they are no more than lobbyists for their big campaign donors.

[marknpgh289]

Independent isn't a viable option in Pennsylvania. He would have a very hard time getting on the ballot.

[rejoiceinit]

Never a truer post has there been. George Washington was truly understood what American government should be.

[wijg]

..."Specter voted FOR the Bush tax cuts; FOR the AUMF; FOR Chief Justice Roberts; FOR Justice Alito; and AGAINST President Obama's budget.  Specter may look moderate in light of the far right Republican Party, but he is right of center. Not a Democrat.  He disagrees with core Democratic positions.
Tax cuts for the rich.  Against the Obama budget."...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/5/4/727639/-An-Opponent-for-Specter-SEIUs-Stern-meeting-Sestak-Today-(wUpdates)

[anelder]

I am a democrat - Pennsylvania - who has voted for Spector in the past. However, if he states that he is going to vote against the Health Care bill I shall be one who will vote him out in the Primary. If he makes it, I'll look closely at the alternate candicate.

If he does not see this as a most important issue I have to doubt his intent and believe his ideology has taken over for his desire for the people's good. That ideology being the support alwasy for big business versus the citizen's welfare.

[kimleehan]

Was'nt it this Alen Specter who came up with the single magic bullet theory?

[larmar]

"Dodging taxes" and "NO" are the only two things in the Republican platform and neither were principles of Ronnie R.

[kimleehan]

Let me see if I got it right Toomey would have beat Specter and the Democrat would have beat Toomey, Did the Democrats have anything to say about Specter becoming a Democrat?

[commentator101]

The poll asked about Specter as the democratic candidate, not a generic democratic candidate. I would guess it is unlikely some other democrat would do better than Specter.

[cyoohoos]

Toomey would have beaten Specter in the Republican primary. Not in the general election. In PA, you have to be registered with that party to vote in the primary.

So the extreme right conservatives, who now dominate the PA republican party would have rejected Specter. But the PA voters in general would never elect Toomey.

[FairTalk]

200,000 Republicans left the party and registered as Dems during the presidential election. In fact, the Reagan Rebublicans have been leaving the Republican party for some time now. Moderate Republicans have been, and are being targeted by right wing nuts for removal. Think? What happened top Lincoln Chaffee?

Now, in PA, there are not enough moderate Republicans left to assure Arlan would win the Republican nomination. That is because of the huge shift to the far right in the Republican party. One thing is sure, Arlan no longer represents the PA Republicans.

Now, the problem is, most Democrats that hold elected office in PA may be more conservative than Arlan is. After all, that is how they were able to win in a very conservative and Republican state.

If there were no primaries, then Arlan could beat Toomey hands down, because all voters would be eligible to vote for him, not just thr republicans.

[TalentedOne]

Wait until Tom Ridge gets into the race. Arlen will be doomed!! Anyway, Arlen's been in there too long and his brain (if he has one) no longer functions!

[cyoohoos]

That assumes that the Republicans will accept the pro-choice Tom Ridge. The jury is still out on that one.

[marknpgh289]

I think you're right about Ridge's chances with the Republican Primary. Ridge isn't pure enough for the Republicans who are left in PA. All of the Ridge/Specter/Thornburgh/Heinz Republicans have left the party. Ridge would be the only Republican who would have a shot against Specter. Toomey appeals to a very narrow group. He can't win in Pittsburgh or Philly.

[AprilPA]

The GOP likely won't accept Ridge. If they had accepted Ridge's pro-choice stance, then McCain would have picked him instead of Sarah Palin for VP.