Would Mike Dukakis Have Won the 2008 Election?

FiveThirtyEight.com:

Chris Bowers writes:

The nation still moving away from Republicans demographically, too. It can't be emphasized enough that Michael Dukakis would have won the 2008 election. His exit polls of 40% among whites, 89% among African-Americans, and 70% among Latinos is enough to reach 50%+1 now, even in the event that African-American turnout was only 12% of the vote instead of 13%.

Read the whole story: FiveThirtyEight.com

Comments

[factotem]

In hindsight, it's absolutely clear that Mike Dukakis would have gotten 100 percent of the magical leprechaun vote, and 99 percent of the gnome vote. He would have been hoisted in victory on the shoulders of gnomes and leprecahuns and carried through the streets of DC with rainbows shooting out his fingertips.

Specious article. Who cares?

[PG13]

here is a quote from said article: (quote)(for example, if you're white and hispanic, you count as "hispanic"). (end qupte)

well, the problem is the term hispanic being classified as a race and not a culture.

I personnaly preffer using the word "Latino" because it has a more cultural connotation and less racial.

The Latino community is racially complex and diverse. White, Native, Black, Mestizo and plus you got descendants of immigrants from other countries who migrated to Latin America in the last century and decades who became integrated in their new world country of adaption.

Racial profiling someone as Hispanic is wrong because it is inaccurate to the bone.

Rick Sanchez is white, Felipe Alou is black, Che Guevara is white, Pedro Morales is a Native etc. etc.
you cannot classify all these people as one "hispanic" race because it is inaccurate.

[Rog49Thomas]

In an electoral match up between James Buchanan, Millard Fillmore and Spiderman, would Jim have carried Kansas?

[MurrayAbraham]

Good question. I would also be interested in the chances of Bo (the dog) to be elected as Governor of Illinois.

[Rog49Thomas]

The Governor of Illinois is elected.

Bo might become a senator if Burris resigns, though one would have to be careful about that because it would be a real shame when he turned out to be smarter than most senators.

[Bude]

No, no, no! He wouldn't win if he was running against himself. Never!

[mamala4]

Who cares about woulda coulda shouldas..­..history.­..he was an awful candidate.­..why wonder about this when there are so many other things we are dealing with now?

[truthartbeauty]

no, everything came into place on the last election. the time was ripe for a brilliant leader with a messge of hope and yes we can, the time was right for an AA, and comming out of 8 years of bush a groundsquirrel could have won, but dukakis did not bring the powerful message of hope or the ethnic diversity. He was a democrat but about as dynamic as a wad of spit.

[jetphixer]

After all the"GOOD" W aka Boosh & Chaney did for the USA i truly believe Joseph Stalin could have been elected on the democratic ticket in this past election.

[takeyourballandgohome]

It is our very, one and own, Newt Gingrich who has masterminded the GOP into the immoral nasties!!! Lee Atwater stated on his deathbed that Newt was his teacher. I saw Lee say this, I didn't hear or read about it!!! He apologized to Mike D. for what he did to him, mainly the Willie Horton ads, etc.

This has been made general knowledge via Frontline, the Lee Atwater Story, but few care to recognize, watch or accept it. It should be required viewing for ALL civic classes. Lee Atwater, via Newt changed history. the Bushes are part of it and they know it.

It is really an upsetting video, but credible. Take the time to rent it. In fact, it could not due to time, reveal all, I would love to see that which is on the cutting room floor.

[obackarama]

Dukakis has the distinction of being the guy on which Ru sh first perfected his "craft."
He never knew what hit him and we've been suffering for it ever since.

[obackarama]

on whom

[Palemoon]

Duh, he would have won in 1988 if the fairness doctrine hadn't been repealed by Reagan. He'd also have handily won if the media had stuck to the issues instead of going off on tabloid style hunts for dirt.

This country is paying a very severe price because Dukakis didn't win in 1988.

[seanparnell]

Your kidding, right? What exactly did the fairness doctrine have to do with Dukakis losing in '88?

Sean Parnell
President
Center for Competitive Politics
http://www.campaignfreedom.org

[robcat2075]

Nate Silver didn't write that post.

[EducatedObserver]

On this I agree with several of my fellow posters - any Democrat would have won.

[neoprimordial]

Dukakis would have lost because he would have been no better or original of a candidate than Mr. Teresa Heinz, senator from Massachusetts. Odds are he would have allowed the GOP to frame the debate and control his image to the voters. Also, he's not the most telegenic of pols--he kind of looks like Peter Lorre with bushy eyebrows. Maybe if he ran against a Sarah Palin running for president, he might win.

[MikeDu]

Dukakis lost because he was too short, his eyebrows were too bushy, and looked funny in a tank helmet. But he was right on ALL the issues and a supremely competent manager.

His loss to Reagan (and the following lunatic-fringe right) was the RUINATION of the nation. Sometimes I feel if this country is that shallow we deserve everything we get. Its a harsh judgement, I may just be one of those starving in a ditch three years from now, a victim of the disasterous implosion of "Reaganomics".

[neoprimordial]

This country IS that shallow (my preferred word is "superficial"), but who knows if we "deserve" what we get. I think it's inevitable we'll suffer if we don't take seriously enough what needs to be taken seriously. Whatever happens, we shouldn't be scared of the future, however bleak it might appear. Obama's in there for the moment, so I say let's focus on the bright side.

[Decipherer]

Um, "Mikey," Dukakis did not lose to Reagan, he lost to George H.W. Bush, preserving the worst of the GOP legacy going back to the Nixon era.

Had Dukakis won, we would have been spared Boosh (the son), Clarence Thomas on the Supreme Court, the neocon entourage (Cheeney, Rumsfeld, and the lot) and, of course, Dan Quayle, perhaps the only one of the entire group who has had sense enough or just common decency to leave the rest of us alone.

Sure, Dukakis wasn't a telegenic teevee pitchman like the Reagan of myth, who took his message and sold it to us in tough times and we went along by electing him twice. All Dukakis offered was sound judgment, good management of government, and competence. After Lee Atwater and Karl Rove got done with him, however, enough people came to believe that he was a dangerous buffoon, and that, folks, was that.

[mrmxyzptlk]

By the way, I thought Bush looked at least as silly in a flight suit as did Dukakis in a tank.

[Bitsko]

Somebody has way too much time on their hands.