Marc Ambinder: Following #iranelection On Twitter

Writing for the Atlantic, Marc Ambinder has up a solid and well-considered brief for anyone who's attempting to follow the news out of Iran on Twitter, rightly noting that the resource should largely be considered a source of "signals intelligence."

There's plenty of misinformation out there, like rumors that Ahmadinejad is going to stage an assassination attempt, so we need to be careful about how we judge the information. If we're a savvy analyst, we need to be careful about the weight we attach to photographs and video accounts. They're the most immediate and emotionally powerful, but they can distort our understanding of the situation, particularly of about the importance of specific developments.

Ambinder has a lot of good advice (and a shout-out to @persiankiwi, who's rapidly earning him/herself a reputation for reliable and comprehensive information), but I think this is the sagest bit:

Don't assume. Everyone assumes that Mousavi really won. But there is reason to think that the election was very close -- and that Ahmadinejad might have actually prevailed (although the evidence appears solid that his totals were significantly inflated.)

Not to be a downer, but that's pretty critical. One of the effects of following the various Twitter threads on this story is that you can get swept up in and borne aloft by the hopes of those who wish to see Ahmadinejad defeated. It's somewhat seductive. You can even detect a little of this in Ambinder's post, which he titles, "Follow The Developments In Iran Like A CIA Analyst." To borrow the title of Christopher Hedges book, it is a force that gives this community meaning. But in the end, what you want to be the truth may not be true, no matter how enthusiastically you wish for it.

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Comments

[Howey]

I've got contacts furnishing me pictures and information from the country posted on my blog:

http://theworldofhowey.wordpress.com/

It's amazing the impact Twitter is having on the situation over there.

My heart and prayers go out to the Iranian people.

[JohnDylan]

If I where you guys I would read the Washington Post poll showing that Amedinijad is just as populair now as 4 years ago. I am not defending him becouse I think he is a scary man and bad for Iran but he is elected and the riots are a set-up by the CIA (probably). It is te same as thirty years ago when the U.S. destroyed the democracy in Iran and this is there own fault. It is the same as in Afganistan where the U.S. first brought the Taliban to power and now tries to destroy them. JUST STOP MEDDELING IN THE REST OF THE WORLD! First try to fix your own country please becouse you have enough problems at home. First give your homosextuals the rights they deserve and please you have enough other problems and it is not weird that most Europeans think the U.S. is the biggest problem of the world right now.

[minimalist syntax]

Nate Silver at 538 has a good analysis of this poll and it appears to be heavily flawed statistically: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[wereeverywhere]

Get it straight please. Thirty years ago the Iranians rose up against the Shah. It was an Anglo/US stunt that throned the Shah in 1953 -that is documented. That WaPo poll has a lot of problems combined the fact that one never wants to rely on a single ever. Anywhere. As to US government interfering, I agree completely they need to stay out of this. However, the protesters in the streets are beyond anything CIA could hatch and are dying and mustering 100's of thousands of people. That is not CIA and please don't slander the Iranians who are out there fighting.

Speaking of getting it straight, there's a vibrant out LGBT movement that faces a lot of barriers yet, of course. But a gay Iranian has their very life endangered daily. There is no comparison. Hopefully if the Iranians can rid themselves of IRI this can change.

[Howey]

Excellent point, wereeverywhere. One of my closest friends is a gay Iranian and I certainly hope that LGBT folks in Iran will enjoy more freedom soon.

[RickCoMatic]

I just want to be presented the Truth.
I'm capable of doing my own analysis.

That one of the first moves that happened after the election was to expell journalists and limit their communicating what facts they had gathered, speaks for what the situation is and how to deal with it.

Now you need to weigh all the information coming out.
What came out and how it got out.
In this information age, it makes being a spy real simple.

[VirginiaMom]

This begs the question: why would I want to follow the developments in Iran "like a CIA analyst"?

[HWNA]

You can do that or follow the developments in Iran "like a know-nothing corporate pundit".

They both have pretty shoddy track records for disseminating reliable information, so I would say just turn on your critical thinking and reasoning skills and try to sort through the hype.

[Patricia84]

You mean like that: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRwUZ-u6KFo?

[NPA]

The CIA???

Who insisted that WMD's were in Iraq?
Didn't predict 9/11?
Didn't see the fall of the Berlin War and the subsequent end to the Cold War?

The CIA needs to be overhauled!

[TJCole]

Maybe it would help we could include a television, in their next funding allocation..!

[wereeverywhere]

You are correct. The CIA is lame. Deadly and dangerous, but lame. Yet many clueless posters allege, without any proof, that the CIA is behind a million or so people facing the armed might of IRI. It boggles my mind that people are slandering those beautiful Iranians risking their lives.

[omyword]

I've been watching Twitter almost non-stop since yesterday and so that gives me a lot of background when I see new tweets. I've seen old (old can mean only minutes or hours in this context) photos used to describe something completely different than the original description. Sometimes I became concerned that people would believe the second description versus the first. This does not take away from the incredible force of Twitter in this historic event, but it does require some intelligent filtering, comparing and researching before retweeting, blogging or just making any assumptions.

[TJCole]

Like who..The CIA..?

They always get it wrong...!