When Will The Recession End? Wachovia Takes A Guess

When will the recession end? Everyone's got an opinion. Warren Buffett recently said the U.S. economy is recession will end later this year.">still in shambles, while other economists predict that the recession will end later this year.

With so much disagreement about when the economy will improve, the economics group at Wachovia has settled on a probability. Wachovia puts the probability of the recession lasting two more quarters at 37 percent. Wachovia says it's likely, in other words, that the recession will end in six months. Just in time for Christmas...

But, it's not all good news. For one, Wachovia doesn't expect any sort of return to America's manufacturing glory days:

"...the structural trend of declining employment in blue-collar manufacturing continues as it has since the early 1970s. These declines reflect the high cost of labor relative to capital that has prompted the increased use of technology and capital to substitute for skilled workers as well as the evolution of consumer demand from 'goods' to 'services.'"

READ: Wachovia's report:

RecessionProbitModelUpdate-June 2009 -

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Comments

[MovingtoNorway]

03:06 PM on 06/26/2009

Which year?

[larry278]

02:01 PM on 06/26/2009

Santa comes in Dec, too. Who will get coal in his/her stocking, for that matter who'll have a house with a fire place, mantel & socks in Dec, 2009?

[nomorefed]

01:19 PM on 06/26/2009

The banks that are "too big to fail" are too risky to break apart or put into receivership. Yet, banks should not expect to receive money. Precisely as they have in the past - what malarky! Individuals that have loans should be accountable. But, not banks that get their debts paid or forgiven by the government.

No regulations are proposed to break these institutions up so they're no longer too big to
fail - just more watching them - but, wasn't Geithner the guy watching them before as head
of the NY Fed? Doubletalk and lies. Obama has no intention of installing meaningful controls. He's just giving bankers full control.

he's right: http://makeitbrief.com/avupq why aren't our voices being heard by Washington?

[nomorefed]

01:11 PM on 06/26/2009

make the economy shrink. nowadays, only the highest earners of society benefit nowadays from economic growth,

he's right: http://makeitbrief.com/avupq why aren't our voices being heard by Washington?

[ahroth]

01:07 PM on 06/26/2009

Yeah the recession will end, and then the depression will begin.

[brooklyncitizen]

12:29 PM on 06/26/2009

"manufacturing" glory days?what are we manufacturing?

[inorbit]

11:47 AM on 06/26/2009

Can we hold out until December?

[brooklyncitizen]

12:29 PM on 06/26/2009

can you hold ouit til december 2010?

[blood1]

09:49 AM on 06/26/2009

OK, now I need proof that their probability calculations have ever been correct.

It sounds like they are trying to manipulate the facts to justify BONUS payments to their employees. We small time investors may not be experts in investment, but we do know BS when we hear it...this is just a set up!

[dadw5boys]

09:42 AM on 06/26/2009

Bankers are telling you it is O K to spend your money soon you will have a bright future.

Bankers also have sub prime loans and other goodies for you.

.

[gourmet panda]

09:29 AM on 06/26/2009

Good to know the"close your eyes and point to the calendar" system of financial management is still working for Wachovia.

[KarateKid]

07:14 AM on 06/26/2009

Ha ha ha ha ha ha !! What a pipe dream.

[dansup]

03:20 AM on 06/26/2009

oh, o.k.

[Sharon908]

10:45 PM on 06/25/2009

ARM loans already brought them down. With more Arm resets to come, who are they kidding?

[jimrs6]

09:37 PM on 06/25/2009

Let's get specific. It will end on December 16 at 9:40am

[Pigeon2]

07:41 AM on 06/26/2009

What year is the bigger question...

[SamKnause]

07:37 PM on 06/25/2009

Unless 6 million people get jobs, I don't see the recession ending in December.