When Will The Recession End? Wachovia Takes A Guess

When will the recession end? Everyone's got an opinion. Warren Buffett recently said the U.S. economy is recession will end later this year.">still in shambles, while other economists predict that the recession will end later this year.

With so much disagreement about when the economy will improve, the economics group at Wachovia has settled on a probability. Wachovia puts the probability of the recession lasting two more quarters at 37 percent. Wachovia says it's likely, in other words, that the recession will end in six months. Just in time for Christmas...

But, it's not all good news. For one, Wachovia doesn't expect any sort of return to America's manufacturing glory days:

"...the structural trend of declining employment in blue-collar manufacturing continues as it has since the early 1970s. These declines reflect the high cost of labor relative to capital that has prompted the increased use of technology and capital to substitute for skilled workers as well as the evolution of consumer demand from 'goods' to 'services.'"

READ: Wachovia's report:

RecessionProbitModelUpdate-June 2009 -

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Comments

[MovingtoNorway]

Which year?

[larry278]

Santa comes in Dec, too. Who will get coal in his/her stocking, for that matter who'll have a house with a fire place, mantel & socks in Dec, 2009?

[nomorefed]

The banks that are "too big to fail" are too risky to break apart or put into receivership. Yet, banks should not expect to receive money. Precisely as they have in the past - what malarky! Individuals that have loans should be accountable. But, not banks that get their debts paid or forgiven by the government.

No regulations are proposed to break these institutions up so they're no longer too big to
fail - just more watching them - but, wasn't Geithner the guy watching them before as head
of the NY Fed? Doubletalk and lies. Obama has no intention of installing meaningful controls. He's just giving bankers full control.

he's right: http://makeitbrief.com/avupq why aren't our voices being heard by Washington?

[nomorefed]

make the economy shrink. nowadays, only the highest earners of society benefit nowadays from economic growth,

he's right: http://makeitbrief.com/avupq why aren't our voices being heard by Washington?

[ahroth]

Yeah the recession will end, and then the depression will begin.

[brooklyncitizen]

"manufacturing" glory days?what are we manufacturing?

[inorbit]

Can we hold out until December?

[brooklyncitizen]

can you hold ouit til december 2010?

[blood1]

OK, now I need proof that their probability calculations have ever been correct.

It sounds like they are trying to manipulate the facts to justify BONUS payments to their employees. We small time investors may not be experts in investment, but we do know BS when we hear it...this is just a set up!

[dadw5boys]

Bankers are telling you it is O K to spend your money soon you will have a bright future.

Bankers also have sub prime loans and other goodies for you.

.

[gourmet panda]

Good to know the"close your eyes and point to the calendar" system of financial management is still working for Wachovia.

[KarateKid]

Ha ha ha ha ha ha !! What a pipe dream.

[dansup]

oh, o.k.

[Sharon908]

ARM loans already brought them down. With more Arm resets to come, who are they kidding?

[jimrs6]

Let's get specific. It will end on December 16 at 9:40am

[Pigeon2]

What year is the bigger question...

[SamKnause]

Unless 6 million people get jobs, I don't see the recession ending in December.