El Nino Conditions Return to Affect Weather

WASHINGTON — El Nino is back.

Government scientists said Thursday that the periodic warming of water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which can affect weather around the world, has returned.

The Pacific had been in what is called a neutral state, but forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say the sea surface temperature climbed to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal along a narrow band in the eastern equatorial Pacific in June.

In addition, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said temperatures in other tropical regions are also above normal, with warmer than usual readings as much as 975 feet below the ocean surface.

In general, El Nino conditions are associated with increased rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific and with drier than normal conditions over northern Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

A summer El Nino can lead to wetter than normal conditions in the intermountain regions of the United States and over central Chile. In an El Nino year there tend to be more Eastern Pacific hurricanes and fewer Atlantic hurricanes.

The forecasters said they expect this El Nino to continue strengthening over the next few months and to last through the winter of 2009-2010.

"Advanced climate science allows us to alert industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather conditions El Nino may bring so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy," NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said in a statement.

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NOAA officials noted that not all El Nino effects are negative. For example, it can suppress Atlantic hurricanes and bring needed moisture to the arid Southwest.

But it can also steer damaging winter storms to California and increase storminess across the southern United States.

The warming of the ocean can also lead to a reduction in the seafood catch off the West Coast, and fewer fish can also impact food sources for several types of birds and marine mammals.

A recent study by researchers at Georgia Tech suggests there may actually be two forms of El Nino, depending on whether the warming is stronger in the eastern or central pacific.

While the current warming seems to be strongest in the east, the more traditional form, government forecasters did not categorize it.

If the Georgia Tech study is correct, this would be the type of El Nino that reduces hurricanes in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The other form, centered farther west, reportedly seems to promote Atlantic storms.

___

On the Net:

NOAA: http://www.noaa.gov

Comments

[jsarets]

Whatever weather patterns are coming our way in connection with the new El Nino, it's good to know that NOAA and the meteorological community have better tools than they've ever had for forecasting weather events. With recent advancements in the imaging and sounding capabilities on our constellation of remote sensing weather satellites, we can slice into storms and see what's going on like never before.

On June 27, NOAA launched the GOES-O weather satellite into geostationary orbit, the second of the new GOES generation, following its sister satellite GOES-N and soon to be joined by GOES-P. This generation is replacing the GOES I-M generation that is nearing end of life. Forecasters have been depending on the GOES constellation since 1975.

The new GOES satellites have a more powerful spacecraft bus that stabilizes and aims instruments more precisely to allow higher-fidelity observations. It's also the first generation of the GOES that are really two satellites in one: while one side is trained on earth, the other side observes the sun, allowing unprecedented insight into how solar phenomena affect weather patterns on earth.

With the specter of climate change and its implications for economic development, it's critically important that we invest in a greater understanding of the atmospheric, oceanic, and planetary forces that drive climate and weather patterns. Thankfully, the GOES team has been hard at work on a new suite of advanced instruments for the GOES-R generation.

[MikeyMike]

It won't be that bad, because Arnold will force El Nino to take two days off each month as a furlough, and reduce it by 15%.

[bradwieser]

wrong:

to use a 30 year timetable is both purposely deceitful and scientifically not credible. How are you going to use a 30 year time table to prove AGW is the cause? Did we start burning coal in the 1970s? No. Its deceitful because the 1970s were the quietest decade for hurricane activity on record :
http://www.junkscience.com/Hurricanes/decadal_hurricanes.png
we call that "data mining" find a set of data that can confirm your claim and ignore the mountain of evidence against it. So the alarmists pick the quietest decade for hurricane activity and start their trend there. lol, that is funny.

another link:
http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/may/18/study-says-global-warming-not-worsening-hurricanes/

What makes this study different is Knutson, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s fluid dynamics lab in Princeton, N.J.
He has warned about the harmful effects of climate change and has even complained in the past about being censored by the Bush administration on past studies on the dangers of global warming.
He said his new study, based on a computer model, argues “against the notion that we’ve already seen a really dramatic increase in Atlantic hurricane activity resulting from greenhouse warming.”

[bradwieser]

AGW POSTPONED TIL 2020!

From Real Climate:

"We hypothesize that the established pre-1998 trend is the true forced warming signal, and that the climate system effectively overshot this signal in response to the 1997/98 El Niño. This overshoot is in the process of radiatively dissipating, and the climate will return to its earlier defined, greenhouse gas-forced warming signal. If this hypothesis is correct, the era of consistent record-breaking global mean temperatures will not resume until roughly 2020.

LOL

[mamacat]

I guess a smaller number of hurricanes in the Atlantic is good news, but will there be an increase in the number of hurricanes in the Pacific?

It's a shame, but you can almost hear the GW deniers heating up their arguments. "See! There is a reduction in hurricanes this year! That proves there is no global warming!"

[realpolitic]

Yes, there may be a smaller number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, but the frequency of more intense hurricanes is getting greater, so there are fewer but stronger ones.

"Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average, with a 30-year trend that has been related to an increase in ocean temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean and elsewhere."

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v455/n7209/full/nature07234.html

[bradwieser]

wrong:

to use a 30 year timetable is both purposely deceitful and scientifically not credible. How are you going to use a 30 year time table to prove AGW is the cause? Did we start burning coal in the 1970s? No. Its deceitful because the 1970s were the quietest decade for hurricane activity on record :
http://www.junkscience.com/Hurricanes/decadal_hurricanes.png
we call that "data mining" find a set of data that can confirm your claim and ignore the mountain of evidence against it. So the alarmists pick the quietest decade for hurricane activity and start their trend there. lol, that is funny.

another link:
http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/may/18/study-says-global-warming-not-worsening-hurricanes/

What makes this study different is Knutson, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration"s fluid dynamics lab in Princeton, N.J.
He has warned about the harmful effects of climate change and has even complained in the past about being censored by the Bush administration on past studies on the dangers of global warming.
He said his new study, based on a computer model, argues "against the notion that we"ve already seen a really dramatic increase in Atlantic hurricane activity resulting from greenhouse warming."

[srelf]

"I AM EL NINO. WHICH IS SPANISH FOR........ THE NINO.

[veghead1234]

LOL!

[HairFarmer]

Yeah.... if you ski or snowboard head out west !! if this is true it'll be one hell of a season, I can hardly wait !! wax the fat boards and bring a snorkel !!

[jimrs6]

Whatever is happening, keep it up. The weather is much better in PA.

[Katzencats]

Responding seriously here, this was mentioned on our local noon news today (Houston, Tx.). At first I was horrified, remembering the last El Nino, when I was starting seeds outside the first week of January because temps were already in the 80s (and the heat increased the entire year).

We've been at least in the 90s since Easter (our last "real" rain - it rained for 8 minutes two weeks ago, I was so excited, I took pictures), and in the "triple digits" for about 2 1/2 weeks. Heat indices running 103-110, no matter the air temp. So, MORE heat is the last thing I want to hear about.

However, the meteorologist said this type & the timing would actually be likely to bring lots of rain (YAY!) and somewhat cooler temperatures, if only because of cloud cover.

We are baking here, no matter how much the A/C is cranked it's still stinkin' hot here.

[sc300nc]

We need legislation to control El Nino. Where's Al Gore when we need him?

[RichZ]

Same as the Sun, Milankovic cycles, ocean currents etc, but you you can't tax them, or create an industry or political career to fight them, so they will never catch on.

[baxtron]

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha aha hh ah ha ha ha ah ah ha ha haaaaaaa.....it's ok to pull the trigger. no shame in that.

[realpolitic]

Wow, you guys want to protect your ideology at all costs. How come you get to pick and choose what science you will accept?

[shockmagog]

Wingnuts.

Gotta love 'em.

[Garybot]

Probably wandering around his vast estate, admiring how nice it looks with all the lights turned on, temperature inside a nice, cool 70 degrees. Oops have to call the limo service to pick me up tomorrow so I can fly somewhere useless. Darn it, the gardener forgot to turn on the sprinklers - do I have to do everything around here???


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124597505076157449.html

[shockmagog]

Same old phony baloney contrarian nonsense--both your post and your link.

[realpolitic]

You guys love to point to Gore, as if he is some kind of Dr. Evil for warning the world about climate change. Is it Gore's fault that co2 is a greenhouse gas?

[rblackbird]

It is certainly Gore's fault that co2, which is critical to life, is now considered a pollutant.
It is also true that Gore has a massive conflict of interest in promoting cap & trade as a solution to "global warming." His investment firm has billions of dollars under management to invest in projects that will generate excess carbon credits to be sold to companies that need extra credits. If James Hansen of NASA can convince Congress that cap & trade is a bad idea as he wrote to Pres. Obama earlier this year, and that a simple carbon tax is much more efficient and cost-effective than trading carbon credits, the economic rationale will fail for investing in projects to produce carbon credits. If Congress rejects c&t, or rejects the global-warming hypothesis entirely, Gore will suffer a major financial loss. No wonder he is trying to give Congress the bum's rush, claiming that the debate is over and the science is settled, and telling Congress to look no further than c&t for a solution.

[realpolitic]

No, it is the Supreme court that labeled co2 a pollutant, not Gore, and said further that the EPA can regulate it.

T"he Supreme Court rebuked the Bush administration yesterday for refusing to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, siding with environmentalists in the court's first examination of the phenomenon of global warming."

"The court ruled 5 to 4 that the Environmental Protection Agency violated the Clean Air Act by improperly declining to regulate new-vehicle emissions standards to control the pollutants that scientists say contribute to global warming."

http://www.ask.com/bar?q=supreme+court+co2+a+pollutant&page=1&qsrc=0&ab=0&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fwp-dyn%2Fcontent%2Farticle%2F2007%2F04%2F02%2FAR2007040200487.html

[fumes]

to all you deniers out there:

the globe was once 9F warmer w/o our help..

''Scientists who probed two kilometers (1.2 miles) through a Greenland glacier to recover the oldest plant DNA on record said the planet was far warmer hundreds of thousands of years ago than is generally believed. DNA of trees, plants and insects including butterflies and spiders from beneath the southern Greenland glacier was estimated to date to 450,000 to 900,000 years ago, according to the remnants retrieved from this long-vanished boreal forest. That view contrasts sharply with the prevailing one that a lush forest of this kind could only have existed in Greenland as recently as 2.4 million years ago. The existence of those DNA samples suggests the temperature probably reached 10 degrees C (50 degrees Fahrenheit) in the summer and -17 °C (1 °F) in the winter. They also indicated that during the last interglacial period, 116,000–130,000 years ago, when temperatures were on average 5 °C (9 °F) higher than now, the glaciers on Greenland did not completely melt away.[34]'' from the ''greenland'' page @wiki

[MGhamma]

116,000 years ago. 450,000 years ago,900,000 years ago. 2,000,000 years ago. What does that have to do with what's going on now? I'm pretty sure there wasn't 7+ billion humans alive back then. Your post is as inane now as it was the last time you posted this exact comment.

[shockmagog]

Now WE are the "deniers."

Way to throw that hot dry dust in our eyes.

[Garybot]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124597505076157449.html

[shockmagog]

The same old coal and oil based opinion echoed by comments supported by "data" from the Competitive Enterprise Institute.

You really have to wonder what the contrarians' agenda really is when conservatives which make up this sector of society suddenly begin to "question authority."

[DaynaMichelle]

I don't think states that are already struggling or an economy in the dumps can handle the billions of dollars a El Nino could cost. People died, families lost everything, and billions of dollars were spent during the last El Nino...So I will take this seriously unlike some of the other people commenting here.

[jsgaetano]

It's all good. We had trillions of dollars to fund two failing wars. There's more than enough money available for anything we want to do.

[JulieSA]

Where I live is the only area of the US currently in Exceptional drought. It's already cost well over $1 bill in damage. An El Nino could finally be the break in the weather we desperately need.

What's good for one area is bad for another, and vice versa, as the the oceanic cycles flip, and the jet stream moves.

[realpolitic]

It is likely climate change is bringing the drought to your area. The el Nino currents will just reinforce the heat that we are seeing with climate change.

[JulieSA]

To elaborate on my other comment, I think you're right to be aware of this and take precautions if necessary for your area. I just wanted to point that it's a global phenomenon, and for some regions of the world it has favorable results.

I'm looking for a break in the drought, and sometimes that happens for us with massive flashflooding, that's something to watch out for too.

[PatA]

killthemessenger, you need to hush and go to bed!

[HekmabaJuzimax]

Hey kid, get off my lawn or I'll call the police!

[jsgaetano]

I didn't realize El Nino left- conservatives have been blaming climate change on it for seemingly forever.

[realpolitic]

Yes, we have been in the cooling la Nina phase the last several years, along with a solar minimum, but the decade was the warmest in recorded history.