Not Your Father's Recovery: Signs Point To Weak Economic Rebound

Washington Post:

Washington Post:

The wounded U.S. economy has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks. But many economists, who were caught off guard by the brutality of the downturn, are accentuating the negative, bracing for head winds that could cause the recovery to be weak.

Typically, a deep downturn is followed by a robust recovery, as happened with the steep recession of 1981-82, the most severe since World War II, which was followed by explosive growth through the rest of the decade. Many -- but not all -- of the world's top economists doubt that a boom will follow this time.

Read the whole story: Washington Post

Comments

[Harrier]

11:52 PM on 08/17/2009

Unfortunately, even though I'm currently, I have a possibility of getting laid off this year after October. Even if I don't, I know many incredible workers who barely hanging onto their jobs or have lost their jobs. I have lost hope with the handling of the economy an at this time don't see a light at the end of the tunnel. despite the cash for clunkers that lead to increased industrial production, retail sales were down. The government is too retarded to pay those bills. There are still $300 billion in debt that hasn't been written down. Yet the financial institutions that hold them are recording profits and giving away bonuses to their executives despite moving jobs, while under tarp, overseas.

The health plan is a boon to insurance companies an drug companies. The middle class is under complete attack...pensions, bonuses, health care. You have a situation when people, hardworking and honest, with normal mortgages are losing their houses after paying 20 years because they lost their jobs. This is wrong and the working class is getting killed. This government is not doing anything at all. They are dead and just giving away money to the same people who created the problems. There are no new laws to keep them from continuing to do the same thing

[sarabono]

09:13 PM on 08/17/2009

Not to be unexpected. Adding Government Jobs only adds to Government expense. It does not add one ounce of wealth or capability to compete to our economy. It does not add one "Productive" job.

[Yellowbird]

08:40 PM on 08/17/2009

I think this was one rip off too many. Maybe they got their timing wrong. But the habit of scraping all the dollars off the table before leaving office, namely; emptying the treasury and packing it home; is open for all the world to see.

And the American people are aware how much of their hard earned livings have been ripped off.

And so. You want a recovery? You can't have one without the people. And if you're going to refuse us the break we need regarding health care premiums?

You screw us? We screw you back. No recovery. No shopping.

For real.

[rollingdivision]

08:37 PM on 08/17/2009

Handouts to all the Democrats pets.....

[Avanti2]

02:53 PM on 08/17/2009

Why would we expect anything different when the current Administrations efforts are aimed at giving handouts to favored groups but not one word or dollar to stimulate small business development.

It is almost as if this Administration could care less about growing jobs cause it is evident that they don't understand that small business creates more than 70 % of all jobs and new jobs in our economy.

[TheKeynesianComedy]

12:53 PM on 08/17/2009

A tiny recovery may take place but I'm not expecting any sort of actual recovery. The fed and the bush/obama admins poured money into failure and basically told the real economy (we the people) to go and eff ourselves. A real recovery would have required the loss of a lot of those financial elites like goldman sachs/AIG and the liquidation of all their bad debts. All of those problems are still on the economy and they'll return in one form or another.

In order to rebound we need a solid base, i.e. savings, production and the liquidation of failed businesses. What we don't need is more credit and propped up mal-investment, which is what we've been getting.

[HeartT]

12:50 PM on 08/17/2009

And its going to get weaker if the government doesn't give the middle class a bail out, healtchare reform with a public option. With all the brain power in Washington, why can't anyone see, including the President, who I have a great deal of respect for, that if we don't get some relief from the high costs of health care, if we continue to guard our spending because we know that we are one accident and/or one catostrophic illness away from bankruptcy, and unless we find another way besides high premiums to pay for those who can't pay for themselves, we will never be in a position to spend because we will never have any decretionary funds. Help the middle class help to recovery, give us health care reform with a public option.

[pc51]

12:42 PM on 08/17/2009

This was just the first round of the gradual lopping off of the middle class, expect at least half a dozen more rounds.

[toinfinityandbeyond]

12:38 PM on 08/17/2009

There's only one way out, but first the facts.

Obama stated on 60 minutes that the country is broke. The Chinese came to town two weeks ago at told the president as well as Bernanke and Geithner that their not purchasing anymore of our debt. This is why the Fed has been giving money to Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, so they could buy bonds at weekly auctions that the res of the world is not buying. If their not buying our debt, then the government has to print more worthless dollars to keep afloat. That is a zero sum game. A ponzi scam. Add to this the fact the the consumer who drives 2/3rd's of the GDP are in debt up to their eyeballs. Foreclosures are rising at the fastest pace since the depression and the real unemployment figure is close to 20%, and we have sent our manufacturing jobs off shore.

Back in 1933 people woke up one day to find out that their had been devalued and the same rule book is in motion now. There will be a bank holiday called. This usually happens over a three day weekend and people will learn that their dollars has been devalued by 50% or more. This move will reduce our standard of living even further but it will increase the standard of living in third world countries that are trying to play catch up.

[rblaquinta]

12:34 PM on 08/17/2009

Duh of course it will be a different economy recovery. Since we have to reconstruct a whole new economy based on reality....pound of sand eco doesn't work it never did.....and now we are paying for it in spades.

[yappnmutt]

12:29 PM on 08/17/2009

your fortune cookie says "your next meal will be served with china"

[pc51]

12:45 PM on 08/17/2009

That's funny - my cookie said that I would be serving the chinese!

[northstar11]

12:24 PM on 08/17/2009

not your fathers recovery----but surely your grand fathers ---which took 60 years ---to recover from

[watchTVgetSTUPID]

12:22 PM on 08/17/2009

As soon as Bernanke gets reinstated for another term, then the bad news being withheld will come out.

[winchestereast]

12:21 PM on 08/17/2009

Not YOUR father's recovery, but might look better than MY FATHER'S - He lived through the Great Depresssion, which was more similar to this global, deep capital market melt down than the little recessionary blips of the recent past - With one big exception: This depression is being managed sooner - we have precedent - and we are seeing a dramatic slowing of downward indicators as a result -
Much credit to the new administration - be brave, it could have been much worse - we could still be in denial as during the last years of the Bush administration -

[hmargret]

08:31 PM on 08/17/2009

you're wrong. Obama's admin is full of denial. they actually all think at the top that they will get paid, even if we, the middle class, have no money to pay them.
THAT"S THE ULTIMATE DENIAL.

they are killing the middle class, and think they will still have a show to run. WRONG.

[macohmz]

12:04 PM on 08/17/2009

I worked in manufacturing for years. Normally a lack of orders would cause lay-offs. Now there are no places of employment to work at because they've all been shipped out of the country.
The country in my view need to be rebuilt from the ground up. That can't be done as long as the Democrats and Republicans are still in charge.
Those who created the problems are not going too be the ones that fix them.

[northstar11]

12:26 PM on 08/17/2009

cheap labor elsewhere is a foundation building block of capitalism.

[Harrier]

10:21 AM on 08/18/2009

I agree with Macohmz. Manufacturing was the hub of our nation. It not only generated more jobs in manufacturing, but also had to have it's share of suppliers and services. During each down turn, manufacturers have been outsourcing and the longer the downturn, the longer the outsourcing effort. For me it got to the point where I was being ask to work in manufacturing based on my skill out outsource jobs to other countries. It was going done everywhere.

Manufacturing probably hired more PHds than any other industry. When a job is outsourced, it and all that base, services, supply is gone forever. By contract, with all our manufacturing going to China, their recession has been much less because they have the manufacturing base. In the end, when manufacturing stops, you have no economy. You cannot base an economy strictly on services and retail sales.

The more manufacturing you have, the more stable your economy will be-we have lost virtually all of it.