Michael Rubin, Bob Baer: Better Than 50-50 Chance Israel Strikes Iran Within A Year (VIDEO)

Michael Rubin, resident scholar at the conservative think tank the American Enterprise Institute, and Bob Baer, a former CIA officer who now writes an intelligence column for Time.com, joined Chris Matthews on "Hardball" tonight to discuss the possibility that Israel will unilaterally attack Iran after the Islamic nation's recent missile tests. In a lengthy conversation about what such an attack might look like and what the fallout would be, both analysts agreed that there's better than a 50-50 chance that Israel will strike Iran in the next year.

Rubin and Baer also agreed that the time frame in which the United States can exercise any influence over Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu regarding an airstrike is very limited:

Matthews: How long do we have to keep Netanyahu from acting?

Rubin: I'd say it's in months, if not weeks.

Baer: He's given three months. He's got to see something happening in three months or he's going to start his planning. They've already started their planning.

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Comments

[TCanada]

Listen! I will option a couple of ranches in Nevada to double the size of Israel and everyone move to a Tax free State and live happily ever after in the New Jersualem.
Truly, just bring your ancestors with you and forget the past. We will give you the New Promised Land and then Israel might survive as a Nation State.

[Goefel]

Good luck Israel. I hope we can stave off pressure from Zionist organisations, AIPAC and the Israeli government to help them with a pre-emtive strike on a nation that has not attacked them. We know how Iraq turned out, and this will be the collapse of this countries military challenges, given were losing two wars already. Over the years I've realized that Israel doesn't care about it relationship with the United States and that is a great disappointment.
When you see Netanyahu ignore the wishes of the President Obama to stop the settlements and continues to make the lives of Palestinians more humiliating and awful that ever, it's evident that Israel only cares about its greater plans for control of the region. Which is why Iran is arming itself to a greater degree than before. Wouldn't it make sense for Iran to arm, given Iraq was destroyed and sold to the public based on similar lies?
If Israel proceeds with the bombing they are asking for there own death. When will they be satisfied with all the land they've taken from the lives and families of others?

[ImissBush]

$10 a gallon gas
courtesy of r special friend

[jamilk99]

Listen to Bob Baer's flawed logic. At around 4:35, he says that Iran would retaliate by attacking "our oil." Hmm, so did we invade Iraq to bring them freedom and democracy or was it just to make their oil become "our oil?"

[Khirad]

We get our oil from more than Iraq, and the reference was to the Straight of Hormuz. I get where you're coming from and our attitude towards ME resources, but I don't think that was the point he was making. At least, not consciously. They could cause real chaos with the market, that's feasible. My personal fears of a strike are less materially based though.

[Guytar]

These neocon lunatics are still rattling their sabres for their own domestic right wing electoral base.

There is no way Israel will attack Iran.

Russia and China have invested billions in Iranian oil and nuclear infrastructure. India has invested billions in Iranian natural gas.

This is just another unintended consequence of the disasterous war in Iraq. Iran played it smart and formed major trading partnerships with three of the largest and wealthiest nations while Bush - Cheney tried to use US military force to take control of Iraqi oil.

Israel did not dare attack Iran during the Bush US administration.

It is even less likely to happen during an Obama administration.

[ray01]

Israel will never be the first to use a nuclear device? Are you sure. She has invaded /attacked 6 Arab countries while Iran has invaded none in the last 100 years. Israel has threatened to nuke every Arab capital & several in Europe. Please google Samson Option. As far as being an ally, she has attacked at least one American vessel killing 34 sailors & wounding over 172, with impunity. Please google Samson Option. She has also extracted approx 100 billion from the US economy since 1948.
The entire civilized world wants Israel without nukes. Let's impose severe sanctions, a crippling boycott of anything Israeli made & dismantle her nuclear program leaving all options on the table. Then let's put her failed leadership on trial for war crimes.

[bermanator]

"She has invaded /attacked 6 Arab countries"

Israel has never "attacked" another country, every single war has been fought in self-defense and the entire civilized world knows this.

Are you trying to say Israel invaded Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan? In 1948, 67, and 73? And that none of what occured was in Israel's own defense?

Put down the crackpipe AKA leftist garbage.

[ray01]

Israel has invaded Lebanon numerous times, 82-2000, 2006
Israel has invaded Egypt 48,67,73, Syria48,67 73, Jordan 48,67,73, attacked Tunisia & Iraq 81
Israel has threatened every Arab capital with nuclear bombs if threatened
Israel has targeted Russian cities for nuclear strikes if threatened
Israel has targeted European capitals for nuclear strikes if threatened

If there was ever a case for dismantling Israel's nuclear capability by the world community this is it...
Oh by the way, good news... Barak has been threatened in England with arrest for war crimes in Gaza.
Do you get the picture of what the civiled world feels about the rogue nation of Israel?

[ray01]

Oh yes, how do you justify Israel's use of white phosphorus in Gaza & in Lebanon 2006?
Self defense perhaps? Over 1300 people were killed in Gaza, mostly civilians. Over 1100
civilians in Lebanon. Oh yes, I forgot, Israel has a right to defend itself...a­gainst women & children..­.

[ray01]

Also, if Israel has never attacked another country, why is the Defense Minister Euhud Barak presently threatened with arrest in Britain for war crimes in GAza. Oh I almost
forgot, Gaza isn't a country it's an occupied bantustan.

[yaskeptik]

Well, they have nukes for 40 years now, they have had an excuse to use it in 1973, they did not.
You obviously misunderstood Samson Option. It's there because Israel has no strategical depth, is tiny in area and population comparing to the hostile crowd in the neighborhood and learned that it can count only on itself when times are tough.
I'm not sure about your understanding of a frase "entire civilized world ". Syria? Do they belong?

Why don't you start your own boycott by switching off your computer and mobile (full of Israeli technology) and stop taking your pills , very likely to be developed by Israelis.

[ray01]

in 73 Israel sustained significant losses early on. Fearing defeat, she radioed Washington informing the President that Egypt had been targeted for nuclear annihilation unless the US came to Israel's rescue...

[ray01]

Please Google Poll Israel Greatest Threat to World Peace
No I didn't misunderstand Samson Option-Israel's leaders have threatened to strike
virtually all the Arab capitals. certain European capitals, & certain cities in Russia with nuclear bombs if she feels she is threatened with extinction
My boycott has been in effect for years & is working quite well thank you.

[ray01]

Currently, the United States fears Israel will attack Iran pre-emptively because Iran’s nuclear power program could be used eventually to produce nuclear weapons.[3­0] Iranian threats to retaliate against Israel with 600 missiles if either Iran or Syria are attacked[31] raise concerns about Samson Option retaliation. Dr. Jerome Corsi, author of “Atomic Iran,” states that “Israel's Samson Option” could be “a preemptive strike against Iran, even if the international military and diplomatic reprisals that follow might bring disastrous consequences upon Israel itself.”[3­2]

Russia is still considered an Israeli target.[33­] Russia provides technical assistance to, and diplomatic support for, Iran’s nuclear program.[3­4] It also has sold advanced missiles to Syria.[35] In January 2007 Israeli officials voiced "extreme concern" over Russia's sale of advanced anti-aircraft missiles to Iran. They warned: "We hope they understand that this is a threat that could come back to them as well."[36] On November 8, 2007 President George Bush said: "If you want to see World War Three, you know, a way to do that is to attack Israel with a nuclear weapon."[3­7]

[Rand]

Here's a crazy idea: Let's wait until Israel actually DOES something before condemning Israel


Silly, huh?

[ray01]

bad idea

[Pretrib]

If your neighbor, a few houses down (“a few countries over”) was a little bit crazy, told everyone he knew that he wanted to murder you and your family, and said it over and over again, what would you do to protect yourself?

[Arrech]

To begin with, respect the human rights of the Palestinian people, stop despoiling them, stop cutting their water supplies, stop killing their women and children. Give them a sovereign land and cut the endless excuses for not doing so. I am pretty sure that would go a long way to appease the bellicose neighbors.

[bermanator]

The "rights of the Palestinian people" have NOTHING to do with the Iranian nuclear weapons program, despite all the ranting by Ahmadinejad to the contrary.

[ddDinah]

Israel needs to calm down and decide to do what is best for everyone. And Obama needs to speak to the cammander over Afghanistan MORE than once. Afhganistan is like a ship with no captain, I can't believe how he JUST ignores it, like he's going to wake up one morning and some how the problem will just go away.

[gwhizz]

They've been looking for an excuse for years. Israel=rogue nation with nukes. Israel is more dangerous than Iran and S. Korea combined.

[bermanator]

Nah, I'd put Israel on the same level as South Korea.

[ray01]

North Korea-2 nuclear bombs
Israel-300-400 Thermonuclear bombs threatening all of the Middle East, European Capitals & Russian cities
How are they equal?

[Elrancho2]

It wouldn't surprise me. In fact, nothing the Israelis do surprises me anymore. They have no respect for life - unless it's a Jewish life. It's terribly sad that the oppressed have become the oppressor.

[Ithamer]

While it therapeutic to vent on the comment pages it's also beneficial and will have an impact if we all simply reject buying where ever practical anything made in occupied Palestine.

[petera63]

I'm with you on this - every time I see a "Made in Occupied Palestine" (sic!) label, I don't buy the product...
(sarcasm, in case you didn't get it.)

[Kevin30215]

If the price of oil wasn't so volatile, I would agree with these guys.

Let's say the Israelis decide to strike. BOOM! goes the middle east, and the price of oil skyrockets, killing the global economy in a fortnight or less. Think fifteen bucks a gallon, just for starters.

Israel would not get any support from anybody in a first-strike scenario. They know they can last maybe two weeks in a real shooting war without resupply from the US. It would be the end of their nation.

We are watching a Persian gambit here - this is a chess game with the imams and mullahs and ayatollahs. They pride themselves on patience and guile. What they want is a nuclear PROGRAM, not a nuclear arsenal. The capability to deliver a killing blow, but not the casus belli that the Israelis and Pentecostals are creaming their shorts over.

In any case, they want assurances that the US will not try to do to them what they tried to do in Iraq, and nukes are the missing element.

They did the same thing to us in Iraq, using a spy named Ahmad Chalabi to trick us into a costly war that would eliminate their biggest threat. I hope Obama knows who he is dealing with.

[ChumpChicken]

Lets drop those BILLIONS in aid to Israel anyway! We give more to Israel than any other country...­..and for what???

[Darwin256]

Good question.

[bermanator]

We give five times the amount of money to Iraq that we do to Israel.

http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS:_U.S._Foreign_Aid_to_Israel,_January_2,_2008

A basic Google might help you next time.

[ragtag]

If Israel strikes Iran, it will be the beginning of the end for a lot of the middle east. The various Islamic factions will not let a strike against an Islamic regime go without major (and horrific) retribution.

I always think of Israel as the little kid with the tough big brother (US). The little kid is only tough because his big brother supports him and defends him against other bullies on the block.

The problem at the moment is that the little brother is undermining his big brother's attempts to keep the peace with the other bullies (settlement building/e­xpansion). Doesn't seem to matter what the big brother says, little brother seems to think he knows best and is on a collision course with a world of hurt and there's not a lot big brother can do about it...