GOP Brand Has Declined Since Obama Took Office, According To New Polling Data

Despite spending the last 9 months battering the president's agenda, the Republican Party has neither gained any traction with voters nor has it appreciably damaged the Democratic brand.

A Democratic source noted, on Monday morning, that the aggregate polling data for how voters list their party affiliations has remained remarkably steady since the Obama administration took office. If anything, the GOP's appeal has worsened.

In late January, a USA Today/Gallup poll recorded 27 percent of respondents saying they identified with the Republican Party, 36 percent with Democrats and 25 percent as unaffiliated or independent. Now in mid-October, the average data compiled from dozens of surveys over more than a year shows Republican ID at 22.5 percent, Democratic ID at 33.7 percent and Independent ID at 35 percent.

Considering how much political capital Republicans have put into depicting the president and his agenda as anathema to basic American values, the numbers seem surprising and noteworthy.

The highest identification ranking for Republicans came in a February 2009 Rasmussen poll, where 34 percent of respondents listed themselves as party members. That was far and away the outlier. Since August there have been 18 public opinion polls conducted which have measured party identification. Of those, just one showed more than 30 percent of the public affiliating itself with the GOP. Twice, Republican self-affiliation was below 20 percent. By contrast, ever single poll during that time period has had Democratic Party ID above 30 percent, with a high of 38 percent in the month of August.

The results should come at some relief to those Democrats who are despondently self-assured of massive losses in the 2010 election (though, to be sure, national polls aren't always predictive of individual contests). There may be a large pool of independent or undecided voters waiting to be swayed in one party direction or another. But they aren't trending Republican. If anything, they are staying away.

Get HuffPost Politics On Facebook and Twitter!

Comments

[Jay Adler]

01:42 AM on 10/22/2009

Just a guess but I have a hunch that many of the blogger predicting the demise of the Republican Party are going down the wrong road relating to handicapping a race one year from now. Many situations can still rear up during our waiting period and I still maintain that the Hispanic block could flip on a dime if the jobless economy we fear evolves. My comment also mentioned that demographics at this point is not a canary in the mine for any party. What happens in the booth in November of 2010 may be a photo finish as well. Generally in political analysis I believe you have to adhere to shorter stop gaps and time constraints and refrain from personal observations and generalized conclusions aimed at voting blocks. The other caveat is your emotions, it is better is you leave those at the door and judge the political scene on the merits.

[Antiks]

01:44 AM on 10/21/2009

Glad to see independents increasing.

[kd1s]

05:02 PM on 10/20/2009

Yeah but where did those who called themselves Republican go to? That's the increase in independents. Which in one respect is good.

Here in RI a new party is rising up, it calls itself the Moderate Party of Rhode Island. They pretty much adopt a liberal social view, and a conservative business view.

Me, I'd like to see about 12 parties. Then it would force the politicians to build coalitions as well as deter the influence of business on government. Right now with just two parties (or three) it's easy to buy favor. You just fund everyone. But spread it out and it become impractical.

[Aerows]

03:03 PM on 10/20/2009

Small wonder the "GOP Brand" is in decline. They shoot themselves in the foot every chance they get. Sane people don't want to be connected to the party anymore.

[Seattlelite]

11:53 AM on 10/20/2009

Since August all the talking heads have been saying democrats and Pres. Obama were losing support and republicans were gaining traction. I wasn't seeing that in my world at all. The media really should get out of their offices and talk to everyday people, try reporting sometimes. All you hear on these political shows is SPECULATION.

[Horus45]

12:59 PM on 10/20/2009

They have been trying to create an alternate reality, where a Majority of Americans are Conservative.
But everything they have tried has been so transparent that no one buys the lies anymore.

[Aerows]

03:06 PM on 10/20/2009

That's just a marketing tactic with them. Apparently they believe that if they say things are going well, people will flock to their banner to be part of the "winning team". What they don't realize is that people aren't flocking to their banner because they don't stand *for* anything just against everything the Democrats do. Well, that and the fact that the party has been hijacked by crazies and people with the IQ of a fruit fly.

[VotingPresent]

11:38 AM on 10/20/2009

Obama attended his 22nd fund raiser of the year last night. As point of reference, the evil and worst President of all time, GWB attended 6 by the same time in his first term.


Change We Can Believe In.

[indyarnach]

02:53 PM on 10/20/2009

Yeah too bad...maybe he could have gone on vacation instead!
OOPS!

[PlantGod72]

03:20 PM on 10/20/2009

And gotten more done, repaired more breaches to our international image, made headway in restoring a sense of trust and ethics in our government, AND provided a compassionate, intelligent, generous role model for the children of our country to follow!

WOW.....it seems you rethugs are up S*** Creek!

That said, campaign finance reform: make it a priority!!!

[mmgbizgirl]

10:43 AM on 10/20/2009

Elephants sledding downhill at break neck speeds. The visual is priceless.

[AmericanDreamWarrior]

10:18 AM on 10/20/2009

The problem with gopers is that they just don't get it. The "American Dream" was built on the backs of slaves and the immigrant heart and the great melting pot has finally spilled over. Shame on us for not staying put in our places that was designated for us by them. "Give us your poor tired huddled masses so we can drain them for everything they're worth but if they start getting lofty ideas that they too can live in our castles in the sky we'll make them pay" well for the last 40 years that's exactly what they did but no more. During the Cheney years, their arrogance over the illusion of control paid them back in spades. It woke the great sleeping giant and shook from us our apathy and we'll not be going back to sleep anytime soon.

Now I'm not too fond of some of the things Obama is doing and if the GOP wants to take advantage of that they're going to have come up with a new play book. Lies, misdirection and deception are no longer going to cut it. They're going to have to face the fact that white male castles are being foreclosed on. They're going to have to accept that we're in desperate straights and need solutions not just angry rhetoric!

So if the gopers want to repair their image, they'll first have to repair what they broke, the American dream!

[hischagal]

11:16 AM on 10/20/2009

Well -put. The GOP have been in the process of destroying themselves pretty steadily. These are the early stages of a political party in ruins.

Good!

[Brian Carey]

09:50 AM on 10/20/2009

And yet Dems are worried about how Rangel is affecting their election chances:

http://www.thehopeforamerica.com/play.php?id=2260

[SimianNation]

09:26 AM on 10/20/2009

The next thing we will hear, is that this is the socialist/progressive democrats fault. Their only true base is in the south, where coincidently the education levels are just above swamp water levels.

[bla2009]

08:56 AM on 10/20/2009

Eeeeeeeeeeeexcelllleeeeennntttt. it's going according to plaaannnnn... LOL

[Easyrollins]

08:03 AM on 10/20/2009

It seem that the right has talking points and no reason, Each time you read a post from the right they seem to be delusional to the point of questionable sanity. After 8 years of ruining a nation they seem to think that their policies are a welcome commodity, instead of the pariah that it is.

[keepemhonest]

09:09 AM on 10/20/2009

Easy,

Agreed ... The Internet has given rise to the fall of the GOP L I E S & prop a ganda machine.

The 2008 election cycle was the 1st election cycle in history where "a source" was able to combat untruths in a matter of seconds - that single source is the Internet.

Back with "W" R O V E & his drooling rightwingers were able to get an outrageous, salacious "sound bite" on the evening news & it would take WEEKS to set the record straight.

The GOP - to this day - are continuing the old practice of outrageous, salacious evening news sound bites - but - before the evening news even airs the sound bite - the Internet has been able to set the record straight & highlight the GOP's disingenuous sound bites.

Additionally, when the GOP get on tv saying everything is fine with Health care - um .... the people listening KNOW BETTER because they feel the reality.

[DUSAA-1775]

11:44 AM on 10/20/2009

Excellent! the Repubs will not even begin to understand when the Democrats extend their majorities in the 2010 elections.

[sandals]

08:01 AM on 10/20/2009

So again if this poll is true than why does the AP have an article saying that the GOP is fired up and organized and the Independents are just that and the Democrats aren't as motived this time?

So the article along with the rest of the pundits say that the Rethugs will gain seats and the Democrats will lose. True or not.
Do you think people honestly have forgotten that it was the GOP who put us in this great financial disaster and had a lot to do with letting our jobs leave, with their ideology of letting the free market decide.
SO AGAIN WAKE UP PROGRESSIVES AND LIBERALS, do we want these people in charge again?
I say HELL NO!

[Horus45]

02:00 PM on 10/20/2009

The AP is no longer the trusted source for news that it used to be, they too have been taken over by Right-Wing Ideologues, writing stories to fit the Republican talking points and vice versa.

[heartsick]

07:31 AM on 10/20/2009

The Independents are mostly Republicans, in my opinion; they just have the good sense to be embarrassed by their "oppose everything" representatives. And I don't blame them. Frankly, it's hard to imagine that 22 percent of those polled would admit to being Republican.

[WilliamTheV]

06:10 AM on 10/20/2009

here are some other painfully obvious Headlines:

"Sky Blue, Schoolchildren not Sure Why"

"Up is opposite of Down"

"Republicans abandon logic in favor of Rage and Rhetoric, Logic Too Liberal"

"The Big Yellow one is the Sun"

"Science being Taught in Science Classes; Reps Outraged"

"Czars not a Communist Term"

"Star Wars Prequels Ruin Saga"

"Jon Stewart Most Trusted Name in News"

"No WMDs in Iraq"

"Asian American Countries, and such, Suffer Map Shortage"

"We're Boned"

[trog69]

09:29 AM on 10/20/2009

Great picks, WilliamTheV.