Race For Obama's Former Senate Seat A Dead Heat In Recent Poll

Democrat Alexi Giannoulias has closed a narrow gap with Republican Mark Kirk in a hypothetical showdown between the current frontrunners for President Obama's former Senate seat, a new Rasmussen poll finds.

The Democratic state treasurer and the Republican Congressman tied with 41 percent support in the latest Rasmussen Reports Illinois phone poll of 500 likely voters released Monday. Another 4 percent said they intend to support some other candidate, and 13 percent were undecided.

Women prefer Giannoulias over Kirk 43 percent to 38 percent, while men prefer Kirk 45 percent to 39 percent. And especially important for a race that both parties expect to be close, independents favor Kirk over Giannoulias by a two-to-one margin, 52 percent to 23 percent. Giannoulias campaign told the Sun-Times' Carol Marin that its internal polling shows the Democrat five points ahead of Kirk.

Rasmussen conducted its phone survey of 500 likely Illinois voters on Oct. 14. There is a 4.5 percent margin of error.

A Rasmussen poll done in August showed Kirk leading Giannoulias 41 percent to 38 percent.

The same poll showed 17 percent undecided in August, a number that dropped to 13 percent in the same period that Giannoulias gained 3 percentage points. The percentage who said they intend to vote for some other candidate stayed consistent between the two polls at 4 percent.

Kirk and Giannoulias far outpace the rest of the field in both fundraising and name recognition. Kirk raised way more money than his GOP primary opponent Patrick Hughes in the latest fundraising period -- $1.6 million versus $380,000.

Former Chicago Urban League president Cheryle Robinson Jackson, a former Blagojevich spokeswoman who on Monday won the backing of U.S. Rep. Danny Davis, narrowed the gap in a head-to-head with Kirk to four points -- 43 percent to 39 percent. Kirk led Jackson by 17 points in August.

Polled Independent voters, however, picked Kirk over Jackson 52 percent to 19 percent.

Kirk also leads another Democratic hopeful, former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, 43 percent to 33 percent.

In what could be a promising sign for Hoffman, 16 percent are undecided in a match-up with Kirk, the highest undecided percentage in any of the three polled scenarios. The survey did not include how Hoffman fares against Kirk with independents. More respondents said they had no opinion of Hoffman (48 percent) than any other candidate.

Neither the new Rasmussen poll nor the one done in August included Chicago attorney Jacob Meister, a fourth Democratic candidate.

Comments

[CommunistUtopia]

Illinois has one party rule and it is in shambles especially the City of Chicago and Cook County. I will take Kirk in this contest.

[poomplet]

Sayeth the most powerful Democrat in Illinois, actually..­.the CHAIRMAN of the Democratic Party of Illinois:

"Democratic Speaker Michael Madigan refuses to endorse Giannoulias and won't even put his picture on the party's campaign web site. "I want some answers. The allegations are there," Madigan said earlier this week. "My history in politics, if you were alleged to be connected to the mob, you were done. But life seems to go on."

'Don Giablagstrogurris' is toast...if you want to beat Kirk, you had better find someone taint-free­....FAST!!

[VOTER]

Anyone else is better than Rethug, Mark "Bush" Kirk.

[Aldyth]

Mark Kirk - more of the same old GOP negativity and obstructionism.

How in the world can the people of Illinois consider filling Barack Obama's seat with someone like him? Ain't gonna happen.

[mamala4]

Let's hope not...I certainly will do everything I can to keep kirk the j.e.rk out!

[CommunistUtopia]

A RINO versus a spoiled rich kid who has never worked a day in his life who happens to be a Marxist. I guess I will go with the RINO.

[jimme]

I almost agreed with you until the marxist remark. You,like all the other braindeads,have no idea what a Marxist is but you heard it on faux news and you believe what they spew.
If anyone is Marxist it's Kirk. He'll be happy to put you in jail for 25 years for a small posession conviction. Can't get more Marxist than that.

[miles120]

Marxism is an economic paradigm. It doesn't address the issue of jail sentences for crimes against a society.

We really need to get past these labels. They make the people who use them look foolish.

[poomplet]

NO no no...by 'marxist', he means "mobbed-up Chicago cronie".

It was a simple slip.

[BushBites]

Giannoulias is losing the independents 2 to 1 and he's still tied with Kirk?

In a Rasmussen poll?

Kirk is going to lose.

[VOTER]

Who would elect another Bush, like Mark "Bush" Kirk?

No one!

[mamala4]

Rasmussen Polls always lean right...Ki­rk wishes he was tied with Giannoulia­s....we here in the 10th are soooo tired of his political trysts....­time for Mark Kirk to go away and find some other career to toy with...he is only concerned with keeping a job that he will vote no for any health care reform...a­nd he was stoopid enough to say that aloud and to the press....

[Chicagofan1]

LOL. You are jocking, right?
The economy, the way it's going, will be an easy sway for Kirk. G does not stand a chance to winn over anybody. The angry will go to the polls not the students and minorities. The elderly already cannot wait to vote for anyone who can protect Medicare. Wake up...

[Max01]

No, we're not jocking...­.and no, we are not joking either.
Newsflash for you...stud­ents are angry over lack of jobs and lack of healthcare so they'll vote like they did in 2008.

I'll toss in another one for you....the elderly, those who don't watch faux news, know that the Democrats will protect Medicare..­.in fact beef it up...as opposed to the gopers.

[mamala4]

I don't jock and this is NOT an issue to joke about...go read Kirk's speeches and read his comments to the press...He­re 's a sample for you: "Several dozen House Democrats risk losing their jobs if they vote for reform," Kirk told Politico Tuesday, saying that Republicans were comfortable as the party of 'no'..." CHARMING..­.he is afraid to do something POSITIVE for fear of losing his job...in case you haven't noticed, the economy is slowly improving.­..Mark Kirk has been in the congress for 10 years and has done NOTHING!!! except run for his job...all talk and no action....­his summer job fair was a joke...thi­s man is no JOhn Porter, who really cared about the people of the 10th and actually spoke with and listened to his constituen­ts.... Dems will not vote him to the senate and Illinois is a blue state.... Illinois will show him what they think of him...NOTH­ING!! And Rasmussen polls notoriously lean right...

[Cogs]

If these are the only choices, I'll be leaving that space on my ballot blank.

[DASChicago]

Cogs, your vote is just as important as mine.
VOTE, we need you.