Yet Another Public Option Poll Puts A Wavering Dem On The Spot

EDITOR'S NOTE: The story below includes references to polling conducted by the firm Research 2000. The reliability and accuracy of Research 2000's polling has since been called into serious question by a report published in June 2010 by a group of statistical analysts.

Yet another public opinion poll in a state with a conservative Democratic senator shows that the public option not only is widely popular among voters, but could become a potent issue in the upcoming congressional elections.

One day after releasing a Research 2000 survey of Indiana residents -- in a study designed to get the attention of Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh -- the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy for America is going public with the results from Arkansas, home state of Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln.

The findings are equally persuasive. From the PCCC:

PUBLIC OPTION: Arkansas voters favor a public option 56% to 37%. Independents favor it 57% to 32%. Democrats 83% to 12%.

2010 GENERAL ELECTION: If Lincoln joined Republicans in filibustering a public option, 35% of Independents would be less likely to vote for her, 10% more likely. (Over 3 to 1). Among Democrats, 49% to 7% (7 to 1). Lincoln is only 2% ahead of Republican Gilbert Baker (41% to 39%), a net drop of 5% since last month's Research 2000 poll.

2010 PRIMARY: 57% of Democrats say they are not sure if Lincoln should be the Democratic nominee again, or want someone new. If Lincoln joined Republicans in filibustering a public option, 48% of Democrats would be even less likely to support her in a primary.

The survey was compiled via interviews with 600 residents of Arkansas, which is a significant enough number to give the findings some weight. But the larger narrative is equally important. In state after state -- including ones deemed to be political "toss-ups" -- the public option polls extremely well. In Indiana, for instance, voters favored the plan for government-run insurance by a margin of 52% to 42%, and it jumped to 59% to 33% among Independents.

In short, the public may very well be ahead of their elected representatives on this topic. They're certainly ahead of the media. Just last night, on MSNBC'S Hardball, the round-table discussion focused squarely on how tough it would be for these conservative Democrats to vote against the will of their constituents and SUPPORT a public option.

"It's not a matter of scaring people," analyst Michelle Bernard said of ads warning that Lincoln and others would lose their seats if they back a public plan. "It's a matter of saying listen to your constituents."

"Blanche Lincoln, I think, is a wonderful person," added host Chris Matthews. "She faces a very conservative... you talking about people, they voted for McCain overwhelmingly down there and probably would do it again."

"Look she's up for re-election, she's got a touch race ahead of her and she's one of the most vulnerable Democrats," concluded Time Magazine's Jay Newton Small.

SOME MORE FINDINGS FROM PCCC'S SURVEYS:

LINCOLN JOB PERFORMANCE: Sen. Lincoln has 41% favorable, 49% unfavorable rating. (Independents: 38% favorable, 52% unfavorable.) 38% think Lincoln is in-touch, 47% out-of-touch (Independents: 39% in, 47% out). 35% say Lincoln is effective, 51% ineffective. (Independents: 35% ineffective, 50% ineffective.)

2010 GENERAL ELECTION: If Bayh joined Republicans in filibustering a public option, 35% of Independents would be less likely to vote for him, 13% more likely. (Nearly 3 to 1). Among Democrats, 51% to 7% (Over 7 to 1).

2010 PRIMARY: If Evan Bayh voted to filibuster a public option, 54% of Democratic voters would be less likely to vote for him in a primary. Only 6% would be more likely. (9 to 1)

Comments

[flyguy8650]

05:28 PM on 02/24/2010

Public options beware.....once we go down this road,you can never get back. While as long as you are healthy....you are fine....get cancer...wait in line....breast cancer....wait in line....prostate cancer....wait in line.....rare cancer....you die waiting in line.....no more specialists for middle aged....wait in line....you die...Retired over 65.....die die die.....watch soilent green......

[jimmymaryp]

11:09 PM on 03/07/2010

I guess you got money a lot of money what about the little guy who only makes 40.000 a year Let us have our public option. You got so much money you can afford to be tax so you can be a true .American helping your fellow American .Come on be a true American with values come on

[analyst1]

06:38 PM on 01/21/2010

So let me get this straight. The public supports a public option. These polls are published. And the democrats still won't vote for it? Whose side are these people on?

[MadhuryaRasa]

07:53 AM on 01/27/2010

The health insurance lobbyists that keep the money spigot open.

[wrsummer]

12:58 AM on 11/23/2009

Someone who knows how needs to post the members of congress who are benefiting from opposing health care reform. Lobbist are going to make more millionaires in congress than the 237 there now.

[wethepeople3884]

05:09 PM on 11/08/2009

If a dem votes to oppose and the bill goes through, I dont think the voters will really care that lincoln opposed it. If she joins up with her pal Leibermann who is essentially putting a huge target on her back, she will certainly be destroyed in the campaign and probably ostracized by many of her voters as well. I dont think she can risk it.

[taddles]

02:26 AM on 11/02/2009

I don't understand why politicians seem so myopic. The general public, including people of all parties, want real health care reform including a robust public option by more than 55%. The Dems want it by more than 70%. Progressive Dems have made it abundantly clear that they will gladly support a Dem challenger to any sitting Dem if that sitting Dem does not vote for a public option. It's pretty simple, you're either with the people or you're in the pocket of the Insurance companies. If you're accepting bribes (aka campaign contributions) from the insurance companies you should expect that the people whose lives you are destroying will vote you out of office. I don't see what's unclear about this concept.

[TopJack]

07:24 PM on 11/01/2009

Wal-Mart's w-h-ore is looking worn.

[Harrier]

06:20 PM on 11/01/2009

Once people see how much money it saves America, they will support it. Government heathcare is the best in the country.. maybe the world

[Querent]

06:18 PM on 11/01/2009

These polls clearly show the path to the future. Blue Dogs who vote against the public option or otherwise obstruct health care reform are ripe for Progressive primary challengers. We must give them those challengers. When the challengers win, the power of the Blue Dogs AND conservatives in general, will be broken, and we will be rid of them. This way lies reform!

[marecek]

04:18 PM on 11/01/2009

Good, I hope she gets dumped in the next election.

[Belisarius]

02:16 PM on 11/01/2009

Well Arkansas, not much choice in 2010. You can elect a dem senator owned by the lobbies or a republican owned by the lobbies. Got any independents milling around?

Same with Max Baucus, Kent Conrad, and Ben Nelson.

[hulagirrrl]

03:51 PM on 11/01/2009

America needs a third national party to play the tipping point on the scale.

[ncmom54]

02:23 PM on 02/17/2010

yes... or all the voters need to switch our registration to independent or unafilliated ...
those are the voters both parties covet.

[Weehawk]

10:27 PM on 02/23/2010

Without campaign finance reform and strict rules on how much corporate cash can be thrown at a candidate, party affiliation makes no difference. They can buy an "Independent" just as easily as they can buy either party.

[eweqo]

08:48 AM on 11/01/2009

push polls do nothing to illuminate the issue. most voters are aware that obamacare will diminish their coverage, even if they don't currently have insurance.

[cef911f1]

08:19 PM on 11/01/2009

".....most voters are aware that obamacare will diminish their coverage, even if they don't currently have insurance."

That makes no sense. How can no coverage be diminished?

[taddles]

02:28 AM on 11/02/2009

Do you read what you post or just cut and paste from FOX news.

[bobm0001]

01:08 AM on 11/01/2009

Poll after poll shows that the majority of Arkansans want the public option yet Blanche Lincoln continues to be against it. Let's stop pretending that this has anything to do with the voters.

[GwenWare]

05:57 PM on 10/31/2009

I never heard of Blanche Lincoln before she became an obstructionist, and if she stands with the Repubs to block a public option, I never want to hear from her again.

[eweqo]

08:49 AM on 11/01/2009

typical uninformed voter.

[taddles]

02:29 AM on 11/02/2009

says the guy who posts this; "most voters are aware that obamacare will diminish their coverage, even if they don't currently have insurance."

[Tom Payned]

03:47 PM on 10/31/2009

There is no real reform here. People may not opt out of their current plans, as Federal employees can.

Support a Wiener/Whyden hybrid bill, toss out what's on the table now. Which is bull excrement.

The biggest scam of the health care/insurance reform is as follows:

1) Where are the enforcements for the insurance companies actually providing you with the coverage you've been paying for? Mandates: Forcing someone to purchase insurance without a method of insuring the purchase will result in services paid being rendered, is just continuing the current Extortion/Mafia style racket that exists today.

2) Where is the mechanism that forces the break up of the current cartel system of insurance? Imagine Don Corleone & the other heads of the "Family" when they divided up the country.

3) Congress is keeping health insurance with employers. However there is NO discussion of reversing the rulings by the Supreme Court & others interpreting 1974's Employee Retirement Income Security Act, or ERISA, which governs employee retirement funds and benefit plans.

Under ERISA, the courts have said, the only monetary damages that beneficiaries of workplace health plans can sue for is the cost of the treatment of service in dispute.

ERISA is a license to kill. The companies know that they can deny treatment with the sick or dead member having virtually no recourse.

[Areyoume2]

12:52 PM on 10/31/2009

I think it would be smart for the polling to recognize that Independents are tyically Republicans who fear retribution. Independendicans...I call em.

[LeighAnnes]

04:40 PM on 10/31/2009

You draw that conclusion based on what objective evidence and empirical data?