Owens-Hoffman Race Tightens: NY-23 Election Will Depend On Absentee Ballots

digg Share this on Facebook Huffpost - Owens-Hoffman Race Tightens: NY-23 Election Will Depend On Absentee Ballots stumble reddit del.ico.us RSS

VALERIE BAUMAN | 11/12/09 09:22 PM | AP

What's Your Reaction?
Bill Owens

ALBANY, N.Y. — The special election last week for the 23rd Congressional District seat in New York may not be over after all.

Though Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman conceded and Democrat Bill Owens was sworn into Congress last week, the routine recanvassing of votes shows Owens' lead has narrowed to 3,026 votes, with about 5,800 absentee ballots received so far that have yet to be counted. The final outcome rests on uncounted absentee ballots, and more than 10,000 were sent out.

The county Boards of Election are still recanvassing votes and it could be the end of November before a final count is certified. If the count overturns the election, Owens could be removed from office.

The Hoffman campaign conceded when it learned it had a narrow edge in Oswego County – considered the Conservative candidate's base – and after campaign workers learned Owens led by 5,335 votes with 93 percent of the returns in.

"On election night we were kind of stunned – and that's kind of why we conceded – how poorly we did in Oswego," Hoffman spokesman Rob Ryan said. "Then we found out a few days later that the numbers were narrowing because of reporting problems."

Initially Hoffman was reported to have a 500-vote lead in Oswego County, but recanvassing indicates he actually won there by 1,748 votes: 12,748 to 11,000.

"Who knows? We may have a shot," Ryan said.

"Having just gone through this race, and having seen everything that's gone on, it's possible," he said.

Story continues below
advertisement

The Syracuse Post-Standard first reported that problems in some counties resulted in underreporting of votes for Hoffman on election night Nov. 3.

"Mistakes are found, somebody put the wrong number in a column, or numbers are transposed. ... It's not uncommon," said John Conklin, a spokesman for the state Board of Elections.

It's still unlikely that Hoffman could come back; he would need to win roughly 75 percent of the 5,800 absentee ballots that have been returned, Conklin said.

The counties have 15 days after the election to complete recanvassing and they don't have to forward the results to the state until Nov. 28.

"Doug Hoffman conceded, knowing that there was no way he could take the lead in the finally tally, and that's exactly why the election results were not contested," said Shripal Shah, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Owens was sworn in Friday, in time to cast a vote on a historic health care overhaul bill, helping House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reach the majority she needed to pass it. The House passed the legislation 220-215.

The state Board of Elections wrote to the House clerk last week explaining that the state hasn't certified the election because there wasn't an official winner yet.

Since he still leads by about 3,000 votes and the Hoffman campaign hasn't contested the race, Owens' swearing-in was legal.

But if recanvassing produces a different result, the Democratic-led House would have to determine how to proceed and whether Owens must be replaced by Hoffman.

Hoffman's campaign is monitoring the recanvassing.

Owens' spokesman refused to answer questions about the election, other than to release a statement that the congressman is focusing on the district's issues.

The 23rd Congressional District is in rural upstate New York.

ALBANY, N.Y. — The special election last week for the 23rd Congressional District seat in New York may not be over after all. Though Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman conceded and Democrat Bi...
ALBANY, N.Y. — The special election last week for the 23rd Congressional District seat in New York may not be over after all. Though Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman conceded and Democrat Bi...
Report Corrections
 
Comments
302
Pending Comments
0
iPhone App Promo
Post Comment

Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to

View Comments:
Page: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Next › Last » (8 pages total)
- judiNJ I'm a Fan of judiNJ 52 fans permalink
photo

That would be pretty horrendous. The guy is weird beyond belief, sort of like some kind of Mooney on uppers. Wow! Poor Upstate!

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:21 PM on 11/14/2009
- 1shamus1 I'm a Fan of 1shamus1 22 fans permalink
photo

Since it's safe to assume that Scozzafava's name was on those absentee
ballots, it seems even more doubtful that Hoffman has a chance.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:56 AM on 11/14/2009

You're largely correct. Since the candidates are much more likely to be distributing absentee votes more evenly between each other BEFORE Scozzafava dropped out it's unlikely that Hoffman would obtain the "clean sweep" he needs to prevail.

I suspect that there aren't many more absentees to come in. There are always far more ballots sent out than returned by mail. Many people shop up to vote in person and don't use the absentee ballot, others simply don't send it in. Most send it in before election day. Let's say that there will be a total of 6000 absentees. Hoffman would have to overcome Owens 3,026 margin with that. That means in a two person race he'd have to get 3026 out of 6000 to catch up- plus 1488 to prevail against Owens 1486. That means Hoffman would have to get 4514 (75.33%) votes to Owens 1486 (24.66%). This is highly unlikely, especially since Scozzafava will bring that necessary 3:1 differential down.

http://washingtonindependent.com/68016/ny-23-absentees-still-point-to-a-democratic-win

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:14 PM on 11/16/2009

Just playing this game a little further. Are there any counties where Hoffman received a 3:1 proportion in the absentee ballots?

In Oneida County, Hoffman's best in counted absentee ballots (and also election night results) here's the absentee count:

Doug Hoffman – 446 (58.5%)
Bill Owens – 219 (28.7%)
Dede Scozzafava – 97 (12.7%)

That's about a 2:1 ratio- far short of the 3:1 numbers he needs to beat Owens. Plus Scozzafava is stealing the necessary votes he needs to bridge that 3000 vote lead Owens already has.

This is undoable for Hoffman. He should have stayed conceded...now he'll have to reconcede his unconceded concession. Such conceit.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:31 PM on 11/16/2009
- Gretel1or2 I'm a Fan of Gretel1or2 136 fans permalink

Even if Hoffman winds up with more votes, this year's election is still a stark contrast to last year's election in which the Republican candidate won 65% of the vote.....so the voting this year still shifted largely in the democrats' favor, whether or not the GOP or MSM want to admit it.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:38 PM on 11/13/2009
photo

Calling Nate Silver....­..........­..........

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:16 AM on 11/13/2009
- iceage7 I'm a Fan of iceage7 131 fans permalink

Rethugs could have hired Acorn and all would be fixed...Damn

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:11 AM on 11/13/2009

How quickly the GOP forgets, Darryl Issa (R) Calif. Congressman Owens has been sworn in , The elction is over !!

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:50 AM on 11/13/2009
- petzl I'm a Fan of petzl 3 fans permalink

I thought when a candidate conceded, they STOPPED the vote tabulation process ...
and they would then not bother to count the absentees. isn't that normally how the
process goes ?

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:48 AM on 11/13/2009
photo

Gore conceded then rescinded and attacked every court possible. The counting went on and on. Hoffman still has a shot and the election can be overturned.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:03 AM on 11/13/2009
photo

Gore conceded then rescinded and a.t.t.a.c.k.e.d every court possible. The counting went on and on. Hoffman still has a shot and the election can be overturned.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:04 AM on 11/13/2009

No, the votes continue to be counted until they are done for the official record. The concession is more of an unnecessary formality, otherwise, what would happen if the loser never conceded? Technically, elections are never over until the final count is done. Concessions are just a way, when it seems clear that one has lost, to let the supporters of each either party, or go home.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:29 AM on 11/13/2009
- ByersL I'm a Fan of ByersL 37 fans permalink

Don't absentee ballots have to be received by now?

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:42 AM on 11/13/2009
photo

Postmarked by election day.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:43 AM on 11/13/2009

Most of them will have been received, but since, as elumberfeet posted, they can be postmarked on election day, the military ballots from Afghanistan and Iraq have to be given time to move through a rather lengthy mailing process.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:32 AM on 11/13/2009
photo

Seems like a non-story given the odds but one thing is clear: if the final count showed the Republican the winner, he'd be seated a lot faster than Franken was when the tables turned.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:29 AM on 11/13/2009
photo

absolutely! which almost begs the question, is this even legit? Shouldn't the votes have been counted on election day? I mean they are so desperate, they would stoop to anything.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:49 AM on 11/13/2009
photo

Why does crap like this happen in EVERY gorram election?
You'd think by NOW, they'd know about absentee ballots!

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:02 AM on 11/13/2009
- wldone I'm a Fan of wldone 30 fans permalink
photo

Acorn?

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:46 AM on 11/13/2009
- MDinOK I'm a Fan of MDinOK 2 fans permalink
photo

That was registration fraud not voter fraud, you should know the difference by now, silly. And they (Acorn) made sure those ballots were not turned in before the election.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:18 AM on 11/13/2009
- Knowitall I'm a Fan of Knowitall 74 fans permalink

I am going to concede that you are probably joking, but on the chance that you are not, ACORN DOES NOT count votes. State officials do vote counts, ALWAYS.

ACORN was contracted to REGISTER voters. Some workers, who were paid based on the number of voters registered, submitted slips with phony names. When the slips were reviewed they were thrown out and reported as required by law. For these acts of HONESTY, ACORN has been pilloried by the GOP and conservatives.

NOT 1 (one) illegal vote has been reported due to an ACORN registration. Know why?

If you've ever voted, you know the odds of you voting if you showed up at the polls and tried to vote under the registered phony name of Mickey or Minnie Mouse. The odds are zero, at least they are at my voting place.

I'm writing all of this in hopes that at least one person with give up the ACORN illegal voter "talking point" It's absolutely untrue, and it's fast becoming irrelevant and a little ridiculous.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:19 AM on 11/13/2009
- Knowitall I'm a Fan of Knowitall 74 fans permalink

should have said "will give up the ACORN......"

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:21 AM on 11/13/2009
- vesaversa1 I'm a Fan of vesaversa1 12 fans permalink
photo

daja vue Florida

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:51 AM on 11/13/2009

Watch em close now, they have been known to cheat.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:38 AM on 11/13/2009
- ReealOne I'm a Fan of ReealOne 82 fans permalink
photo

Agreed searchn4thruth. And the repubs don't even bother to hide it.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:30 AM on 11/13/2009
- wldone I'm a Fan of wldone 30 fans permalink
photo

I would laugh my a$$ off if they had to give the ole dem the boot.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:51 AM on 11/13/2009

Yeah, I laughed my Arse off when your entire party got the boot!

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:21 AM on 11/13/2009
- ReealOne I'm a Fan of ReealOne 82 fans permalink
photo

Exactly AKWrongWinger. Don't you just love how the gop/repubs run around so gleeful when they THINK that they have a chance to lie, cheat and steal their way into an election, as it appears the only way they can win anything.

If I were wldone, (and I don't want to be) being a member of the most embarassing party in this country, whose party is in a shambles, and is being piloted by some nutz who were not even elected... I'd save that "a$$ laughing" for some other time... way, way into the future, in case the gop/repub party ever get to win a general election again, and be in control. From where the rest of us are sitting, for the busted gop/repub party, that 'ain't' likely to happen anytime soon. Now THAT'S something to laugh about.

The gop/repubs still have not been able to understand why this country has shut them out of elections for the past several years... and from the looks of things (which not only this country sees, but the ENTIRE world as well) and without some serious overhaulin', they can RIP.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:29 AM on 11/13/2009
- barksalot I'm a Fan of barksalot 44 fans permalink

Just another hp headline to get it's lemmings rushing out of their burrows to to whine about some other supposed dastardly deed being put upon them by Republicans.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:34 AM on 11/13/2009
- Knowitall I'm a Fan of Knowitall 74 fans permalink

I'm confused. How does counting all the votes turn into a "dastardly deed". Not, of course, unless you are predicting that the Republicans might--GAS­P!!--CHEAT­. When has that ever happened???

Kind of interesting that you would bring it up, though.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:24 AM on 11/13/2009
photo

I would absolutely hate it, but if the valid recount showed Hoffman won, then he should be seated. Uncomfortable and weird? Oh yeah, but we can't soil the prize and pretend it's still valuable.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:26 AM on 11/13/2009
- scat I'm a Fan of scat 14 fans permalink
photo

not a recount. they are finishing count the ballots from the election.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:08 AM on 11/13/2009
- billhodges I'm a Fan of billhodges 208 fans permalink
photo

If he gets within 1,000 votes there will be a recount and who knows how that will play out with the other areas that were found to be incorrect. Interesting that a 3rd party unknown did so well whether he wins or not. Owens will be a 1/2 term congressman.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:53 AM on 11/13/2009

Huffpost you are becoming more and more like a checkout line tabloid. I find myself rolling my eyes at your headlines now. Like the one about Carrie Prejean saying what the bible says about breast implants. Such BS. She said nothing of the sort. Then, this non-story story. Grow up.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:14 AM on 11/13/2009
- Lauralics I'm a Fan of Lauralics 20 fans permalink

NON-story? YOU grow up, why shouldn't the HP report that the election is still up for grabs, especially with all the attention given to it. Is it because you may not like it if the election is turned over to the conservative?

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:36 AM on 11/13/2009
- SiberianRat I'm a Fan of SiberianRat 104 fans permalink
photo

The chances of the election being overturned are mathematic­ally/stati­stically extraordinarily slim. HP does use over-the-top headlines on a regular basis.

    Reply    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:07 AM on 11/13/2009
Page: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Next › Last » (8 pages total)

 You must be logged in to comment. Log in  or connect with 

Connect